Sat, Nov 12 2022
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Memorial Stadium
Clemson, SC
·
Turf
·
81,500 cap
Louisville✈ 292 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Louisville,
while Game Control favors Clemson.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Louisville wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Clemson wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Clemson -7
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2022 Schedule
Louisville's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Louisville at Syracuse | -6.0L7–31 | 55.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Louisville at UCF | +5.5W20–14 | 62.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/16 | Louisville vs Florida State | +2.5L31–35 | 57.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Louisville vs South Florida | -15.5W41–3 | 63.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Louisville at Boston College | -13.5L33–34 | 48.5 | L33–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Louisville at Virginia | +1.5W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Louisville vs Wake Forest | +3.0W48–21 | 66.5 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -6.5W34–10 | 53.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Louisville at Clemson | +7.0L16–31 | 52.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Louisville vs NC State | -4.0W25–10 | 43.0 | W25–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Louisville at Kentucky | +3.5L13–26 | 42.5 | L13–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Louisville vs Cincinnati | -2.5W24–7 | 38.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
Clemson 2022 Schedule
Clemson's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mon 9/5 | Clemson vs Georgia Tech | -24.5W41–10 | 51.0 | W41–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Clemson vs Furman | -45.5W35–12 | 51.5 | W35–12 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Clemson vs Louisiana Tech | -33.5W48–20 | 53.5 | W48–20 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Clemson at Wake Forest | -7.5W51–45 | 58.0 | W51–45 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Clemson vs NC State | -6.5W30–20 | 46.0 | W30–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Clemson at Boston College | -21.0W31–3 | 49.0 | W31–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Clemson at Florida State | -4.5W34–28 | 51.0 | W34–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Clemson vs Syracuse | -14.0W27–21 | 50.0 | W27–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Clemson at Notre Dame | -3.5L14–35 | 43.5 | L14–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Clemson vs Louisville | -7.0W31–16 | 52.0 | W31–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Clemson vs Miami | -19.0W40–10 | 47.5 | W40–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Clemson vs South Carolina | -14.0L30–31 | 53.0 | L30–31 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | Clemson vs North Carolina | -7.5W39–10 | 64.0 | W39–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | Clemson vs Tennessee | -4.0L14–31 | 62.0 | L14–31 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.03
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Clemson Edge
Clemson +17.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Lance Taylor
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 2
#1
Clemson
Dabo Swinney #1
150–36 (81%)
· Yr 15 at school
OC
Brandon Streeter
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mickey Conn
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓