Sun, Sep 4 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Carrier Dome
Syracuse, NY
·
Turf
·
49,250 cap
Louisville✈ 604 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Louisville -6.0
O/U 55.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Louisville
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2022 Schedule
Louisville's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Louisville at Syracuse | -6.0L7–31 | 55.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Louisville at UCF | +5.5W20–14 | 62.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/16 | Louisville vs Florida State | +2.5L31–35 | 57.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Louisville vs South Florida | -15.5W41–3 | 63.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Louisville at Boston College | -13.5L33–34 | 48.5 | L33–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Louisville at Virginia | +1.5W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Louisville vs Wake Forest | +3.0W48–21 | 66.5 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -6.5W34–10 | 53.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Louisville at Clemson | +7.0L16–31 | 52.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Louisville vs NC State | -4.0W25–10 | 43.0 | W25–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Louisville at Kentucky | +3.5L13–26 | 42.5 | L13–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Louisville vs Cincinnati | -2.5W24–7 | 38.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
Syracuse 2022 Schedule
Syracuse's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Syracuse vs Louisville | +6.0W31–7 | 55.0 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Syracuse at UConn | -23.5W48–14 | 49.5 | W48–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Syracuse vs Purdue | -1.5W32–29 | 59.5 | W32–29 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/23 | Syracuse vs Virginia | -9.5W22–20 | 53.5 | W22–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Syracuse vs Wagner | -54.0W59–0 | 62.5 | W59–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Syracuse vs NC State | -3.0W24–9 | 42.5 | W24–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Syracuse at Clemson | +14.0L21–27 | 50.0 | L21–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Syracuse vs Notre Dame | -1.0L24–41 | 48.0 | L24–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Syracuse at Pittsburgh | +3.5L9–19 | 47.5 | L9–19 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Syracuse vs Florida State | +7.5L3–38 | 51.0 | L3–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Syracuse at Wake Forest | +9.5L35–45 | 58.5 | L35–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Syracuse at Boston College | -10.5W32–23 | 47.0 | W32–23 | O | N |
| Thu 12/29 | Syracuse vs Minnesota | +10.5L20–28 | 45.0 | L20–28 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Louisville
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Syracuse
2 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Syracuse
81.8 — 8.3 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Syracuse won by 24
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Syracuse, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Lance Taylor
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 2
#1
Syracuse
Dino Babers #1
29–43 (40%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Robert Anae
Yr 1
#1
DC
Tony White
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓