Sat, Nov 26 2022
·
Week 13
·
🏟 Commonwealth Stadium
Lexington, KY
·
Turf
·
61,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Louisville
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Louisville entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Louisville wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
Louisville wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Kentucky -3.5
O/U 42.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Louisville
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Louisville 2022 Schedule
Louisville's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Louisville at Syracuse | -6.0L7–31 | 55.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Louisville at UCF | +5.5W20–14 | 62.0 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Fri 9/16 | Louisville vs Florida State | +2.5L31–35 | 57.0 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Louisville vs South Florida | -15.5W41–3 | 63.5 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Louisville at Boston College | -13.5L33–34 | 48.5 | L33–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Louisville at Virginia | +1.5W34–17 | 47.5 | W34–17 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Louisville vs Pittsburgh | -1.5W24–10 | 55.0 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Louisville vs Wake Forest | +3.0W48–21 | 66.5 | W48–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Louisville vs James Madison | -6.5W34–10 | 53.0 | W34–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Louisville at Clemson | +7.0L16–31 | 52.0 | L16–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Louisville vs NC State | -4.0W25–10 | 43.0 | W25–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Louisville at Kentucky | +3.5L13–26 | 42.5 | L13–26 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Louisville vs Cincinnati | -2.5W24–7 | 38.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
Kentucky 2022 Schedule
Kentucky's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Kentucky vs Miami (OH) | -15.0W37–13 | 55.0 | W37–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Kentucky at Florida | +6.0W26–16 | 53.0 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Kentucky vs Youngstown State | -30.0W31–0 | 49.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Kentucky vs Northern Illinois | -27.0W31–23 | 52.5 | W31–23 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Kentucky at Ole Miss | +6.5L19–22 | 55.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Kentucky vs South Carolina | -4.0L14–24 | 45.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Kentucky vs Mississippi State | +3.5W27–17 | 50.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Kentucky at Tennessee | +10.5L6–44 | 62.5 | L6–44 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Kentucky at Missouri | +1.0W21–17 | 40.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Kentucky vs Vanderbilt | -17.0L21–24 | 45.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Kentucky vs Georgia | +22.5L6–16 | 47.5 | L6–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Kentucky vs Louisville | -3.5W26–13 | 42.5 | W26–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/31 | Kentucky vs Iowa | +3.0L0–21 | 31.5 | L0–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Louisville
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +1.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Louisville Edge
Louisville +4.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Kentucky
4 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Kentucky
86.5 — 6.5 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Kentucky won by 13
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Louisville, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Louisville
Scott Satterfield #1
18–19 (49%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Lance Taylor
Yr 1
#1
DC
Bryan Brown
Yr 2
#1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
59–53 (53%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Rich Scangarello
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓