Sun, Oct 9 2022
·
Week 6
·
🏟 Albertsons Stadium
Boise, ID
·
Turf
·
36,387 cap
Fresno State✈ 505 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
49.4%
Fresno State wins
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Boise State -9
O/U 45.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Boise State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Fresno State 2022 Schedule
Fresno State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Fresno State vs Cal Poly | -42.5W35–7 | 63.0 | W35–7 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Fresno State vs Oregon State | -1.0L32–35 | 59.0 | L32–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Fresno State at USC | +11.0L17–45 | 71.0 | L17–45 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Fresno State at UConn | -23.5L14–19 | 51.0 | L14–19 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Fresno State at Boise State | +9.0L20–40 | 45.0 | L20–40 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Fresno State vs San José State | +7.0W17–10 | 47.0 | W17–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Fresno State at New Mexico | -9.5W41–9 | 40.0 | W41–9 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Fresno State vs San Diego State | -10.0W32–28 | 43.5 | W32–28 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Fresno State vs Hawai'i | -27.0W55–13 | 62.0 | W55–13 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/11 | Fresno State at UNLV | -9.0W37–30 | 61.5 | W37–30 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Fresno State at Nevada | -22.5W41–14 | 54.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Fresno State vs Wyoming | -15.0W30–0 | 50.5 | W30–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Fresno State at Boise State | +3.0W28–16 | 54.5 | W28–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/17 | Fresno State vs Washington State | -5.5W29–6 | 54.0 | W29–6 | U | Y |
Boise State 2022 Schedule
Boise State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Boise State at Oregon State | +2.0L17–34 | 55.5 | L17–34 | U | N |
| Fri 9/9 | Boise State at New Mexico | -17.0W31–14 | 43.5 | W31–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Boise State vs UT Martin | -24.5W30–7 | 53.5 | W30–7 | U | N |
| Fri 9/23 | Boise State at UTEP | -16.0L10–27 | 44.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Fri 9/30 | Boise State vs San Diego State | -6.0W35–13 | 38.0 | W35–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -9.0W40–20 | 45.0 | W40–20 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Boise State at Air Force | +2.5W19–14 | 46.5 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Boise State vs Colorado State | -25.0W49–10 | 42.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Boise State vs BYU | -9.5L28–31 | 54.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Boise State at Nevada | -21.0W41–3 | 47.0 | W41–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Boise State at Wyoming | -14.5W20–17 | 44.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Boise State vs Utah State | -17.0W42–23 | 51.5 | W42–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Boise State vs Fresno State | -3.0L16–28 | 54.5 | L16–28 | U | N |
| Sat 12/17 | Boise State vs North Texas | -12.0W35–32 | 63.0 | W35–32 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Boise State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Fresno State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Fresno State Edge
Fresno State +0.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 49.4% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Boise State
4 — 1 sequences
GC Battle
Boise State
79.4 — 8.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Boise State won by 20
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Fresno State
Jeff Tedford #1
26–14 (65%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Kirby Moore
Yr 1
#1
DC
Kevin Coyle
Yr 1
#1
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Tim Plough
Yr 2
#1
DC
Spencer Danielson
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓