Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Marshall wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Marshall -11.5
O/U 42.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Marshall
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Marshall 2022 Schedule
Marshall's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Marshall vs Norfolk State | -40.5W55–3 | 59.0 | W55–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Marshall at Notre Dame | +20.5W26–21 | 48.0 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Marshall at Bowling Green | -17.0L31–34 | 50.0 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Marshall at Troy | -3.0L7–16 | 51.5 | L7–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Marshall vs Gardner-Webb | -31.0W28–7 | 56.0 | W28–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/12 | Marshall vs Louisiana | -10.5L13–23 | 45.5 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Marshall at James Madison | +9.5W26–12 | 48.5 | W26–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Marshall vs Coastal Carolina | -2.5L13–24 | 54.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Marshall at Old Dominion | -3.5W12–0 | 46.5 | W12–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Marshall vs App State | +2.0W28–21 | 47.5 | W28–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Marshall at Georgia Southern | -6.0W23–10 | 52.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Marshall vs Georgia State | -6.5W28–23 | 45.5 | W28–23 | O | N |
| Mon 12/19 | Marshall vs UConn | -11.5W28–14 | 42.0 | W28–14 | U | Y |
UConn 2022 Schedule
UConn's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | UConn at Utah State | +24.0L20–31 | 59.0 | L20–31 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/3 | UConn vs Central Connecticut | -20.5W28–3 | 51.5 | W28–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | UConn vs Syracuse | +23.5L14–48 | 49.5 | L14–48 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | UConn at Michigan | +47.5L0–59 | 59.0 | L0–59 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | UConn at NC State | +38.5L10–41 | 48.0 | L10–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | UConn vs Fresno State | +23.5W19–14 | 51.0 | W19–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | UConn at Florida International | -5.5W33–12 | 46.5 | W33–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | UConn at Ball State | +9.5L21–25 | 47.5 | L21–25 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | UConn vs Boston College | +8.0W13–3 | 44.0 | W13–3 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/4 | UConn vs Massachusetts | -15.0W27–10 | 39.5 | W27–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | UConn vs Liberty | +13.5W36–33 | 45.0 | W36–33 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | UConn at Army | +10.5L17–34 | 45.0 | L17–34 | O | N |
| Mon 12/19 | UConn vs Marshall | +11.5L14–28 | 42.0 | L14–28 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Marshall
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Marshall
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Marshall +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Marshall Edge
Marshall +18.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UConn
1 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Marshall
2.3 — 96.3 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Marshall won by 14
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Marshall
Charles Huff #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Clint Trickett
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lance Guidry
Yr 2
#1
UConn
Jim L. Mora #1
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Nick Charlton
Yr 1
#1
DC
Lou Spanos
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓