Sat, Oct 1 2022
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Week 5
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🏟 Joan C. Edwards Stadium
Huntington, WV
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Turf
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38,019 cap
Gardner-Webb✈ 223 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Gardner-Webb,
while Game Control favors Marshall.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Gardner-Webb wins
Solid
Game Control
76%
Marshall wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Marshall -31
O/U 56.0
consensus
Gardner-Webb 2022 Schedule
Gardner-Webb's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/10 | Gardner-Webb at Coastal Carolina | +32.5L27–31 | 66.5 | L27–31 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Gardner-Webb at Marshall | +31.0L7–28 | 56.0 | L7–28 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | Gardner-Webb at Liberty | +24.5L20–21 | 55.0 | L20–21 | U | Y |
Marshall 2022 Schedule
Marshall's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Marshall vs Norfolk State | -40.5W55–3 | 59.0 | W55–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Marshall at Notre Dame | +20.5W26–21 | 48.0 | W26–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Marshall at Bowling Green | -17.0L31–34 | 50.0 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Marshall at Troy | -3.0L7–16 | 51.5 | L7–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Marshall vs Gardner-Webb | -31.0W28–7 | 56.0 | W28–7 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 10/12 | Marshall vs Louisiana | -10.5L13–23 | 45.5 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Marshall at James Madison | +9.5W26–12 | 48.5 | W26–12 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Marshall vs Coastal Carolina | -2.5L13–24 | 54.0 | L13–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Marshall at Old Dominion | -3.5W12–0 | 46.5 | W12–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Marshall vs App State | +2.0W28–21 | 47.5 | W28–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Marshall at Georgia Southern | -6.0W23–10 | 52.5 | W23–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Marshall vs Georgia State | -6.5W28–23 | 45.5 | W28–23 | O | N |
| Mon 12/19 | Marshall vs UConn | -11.5W28–14 | 42.0 | W28–14 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Gardner-Webb Edge
Gardner-Webb +1.67
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Marshall Edge
Marshall +34.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓