Sat, Sep 17 2022
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
Hadley, MA
·
Turf
·
17,000 cap
Stony Brook✈ 105 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Massachusetts wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UMass -1
O/U 44.5
consensus
Stony Brook 2022 Schedule
Stony Brook's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/17 | Stony Brook at Massachusetts | +1.0L3–20 | 44.5 | L3–20 | U | N |
Massachusetts 2022 Schedule
Massachusetts's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Massachusetts at Tulane | +28.5L10–42 | 59.0 | L10–42 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Massachusetts at Toledo | +28.0L10–55 | 49.0 | L10–55 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Massachusetts vs Stony Brook | -1.0W20–3 | 44.5 | W20–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Massachusetts at Temple | +10.0L0–28 | 44.0 | L0–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Massachusetts at Eastern Michigan | +20.0L13–20 | 53.0 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Massachusetts vs Liberty | +22.5L24–42 | 45.5 | L24–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Massachusetts vs Buffalo | +17.0L7–34 | 47.5 | L7–34 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Massachusetts vs New Mexico State | +1.0L13–23 | 39.0 | L13–23 | U | N |
| Fri 11/4 | Massachusetts at UConn | +15.0L10–27 | 39.5 | L10–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Massachusetts at Arkansas State | +17.0L33–35 | 49.0 | L33–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Massachusetts at Texas A&M | +32.0L3–20 | 46.0 | L3–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Massachusetts vs Army | +20.0L7–44 | 45.5 | L7–44 | O | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Stony Brook Edge
Stony Brook +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Massachusetts Edge
Massachusetts +6.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓