Sat, Nov 19 2022
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Ross-Ade Stadium
West Lafayette, IN
·
Turf
·
57,236 cap
Northwestern✈ 119 mi+1 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Purdue
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Purdue entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Purdue wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Purdue wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Purdue -17.5
O/U 44.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Purdue
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Northwestern 2022 Schedule
Northwestern's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Northwestern vs Nebraska | +12.0W31–28 | 52.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Northwestern vs Duke | -10.0L23–31 | 56.5 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Northwestern vs Southern Illinois | -13.5L24–31 | 58.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Northwestern vs Miami (OH) | -7.5L14–17 | 50.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Northwestern at Penn State | +25.5L7–17 | 50.0 | L7–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Northwestern vs Wisconsin | +10.0L7–42 | 44.5 | L7–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Northwestern at Maryland | +14.0L24–31 | 51.0 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Northwestern at Iowa | +11.5L13–33 | 37.0 | L13–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Northwestern vs Ohio State | +37.5L7–21 | 55.0 | L7–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Northwestern at Minnesota | +17.0L3–31 | 40.5 | L3–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Northwestern at Purdue | +17.5L9–17 | 44.5 | L9–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Northwestern vs Illinois | +15.0L3–41 | 38.0 | L3–41 | O | N |
Purdue 2022 Schedule
Purdue's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Purdue vs Penn State | +3.5L31–35 | 53.5 | L31–35 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Purdue vs Indiana State | -37.0W56–0 | 54.0 | W56–0 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Purdue at Syracuse | +1.5L29–32 | 59.5 | L29–32 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Purdue vs Florida Atlantic | -16.0W28–26 | 57.0 | W28–26 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Purdue at Minnesota | +9.0W20–10 | 53.0 | W20–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Purdue at Maryland | +3.0W31–29 | 59.5 | W31–29 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Purdue vs Nebraska | -14.0W43–37 | 56.0 | W43–37 | O | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Purdue at Wisconsin | +1.5L24–35 | 51.5 | L24–35 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/5 | Purdue vs Iowa | -3.5L3–24 | 39.5 | L3–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Purdue at Illinois | +6.0W31–24 | 44.0 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Purdue vs Northwestern | -17.5W17–9 | 44.5 | W17–9 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Purdue at Indiana | -10.0W30–16 | 52.5 | W30–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/3 | Purdue vs Michigan | +16.0L22–43 | 53.0 | L22–43 | O | N |
| Mon 1/2 | Purdue vs LSU | +15.0L7–63 | 54.0 | L7–63 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Purdue
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Purdue
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Purdue
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Purdue Edge
Purdue +0.78
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Purdue Edge
Purdue +28.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Purdue with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Northwestern
Pat Fitzgerald #1
109–89 (55%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Mike Bajakian
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jim O'Neil
Yr 2
#1
Purdue
Jeff Brohm #1
28–29 (49%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Brian Brohm
Yr 2
#1
DC
Ron English
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓