Sat, Aug 27 2022
·
Week 1
·
Neutral Site
·
🏟 Aviva Stadium
Dublin, Ireland
·
Turf
·
51,700 cap
Nebraska✈ 4,051 mi+5 hr TZ
Northwestern✈ 3,655 mi+5 hr TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Nebraska -12
O/U 52.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Nebraska
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Nebraska 2022 Schedule
Nebraska's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Nebraska vs Northwestern | -12.0L28–31 | 52.5 | L28–31 | O | N |
| Sat 9/3 | Nebraska vs North Dakota | -28.5W38–17 | 62.5 | W38–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Nebraska vs Georgia Southern | -23.5L42–45 | 64.0 | L42–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Nebraska vs Oklahoma | +10.5L14–49 | 65.5 | L14–49 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/1 | Nebraska vs Indiana | -6.5W35–21 | 62.0 | W35–21 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/7 | Nebraska at Rutgers | -3.0W14–13 | 50.5 | W14–13 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Nebraska at Purdue | +14.0L37–43 | 56.0 | L37–43 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Nebraska vs Illinois | +7.5L9–26 | 50.5 | L9–26 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Nebraska vs Minnesota | +14.5L13–20 | 44.5 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Nebraska at Michigan | +30.5L3–34 | 49.5 | L3–34 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Nebraska vs Wisconsin | +10.0L14–15 | 40.5 | L14–15 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Nebraska at Iowa | +10.5W24–17 | 38.0 | W24–17 | O | Y |
Northwestern 2022 Schedule
Northwestern's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/27 | Northwestern vs Nebraska | +12.0W31–28 | 52.5 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Northwestern vs Duke | -10.0L23–31 | 56.5 | L23–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Northwestern vs Southern Illinois | -13.5L24–31 | 58.5 | L24–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Northwestern vs Miami (OH) | -7.5L14–17 | 50.0 | L14–17 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Northwestern at Penn State | +25.5L7–17 | 50.0 | L7–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Northwestern vs Wisconsin | +10.0L7–42 | 44.5 | L7–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Northwestern at Maryland | +14.0L24–31 | 51.0 | L24–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Northwestern at Iowa | +11.5L13–33 | 37.0 | L13–33 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Northwestern vs Ohio State | +37.5L7–21 | 55.0 | L7–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Northwestern at Minnesota | +17.0L3–31 | 40.5 | L3–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Northwestern at Purdue | +17.5L9–17 | 44.5 | L9–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Northwestern vs Illinois | +15.0L3–41 | 38.0 | L3–41 | O | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Nebraska
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Nebraska
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Nebraska
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nebraska Edge
Nebraska +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Nebraska Edge
Nebraska +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Northwestern, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Nebraska
Scott Frost #1
15–29 (34%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Mark Whipple
Yr 1
#1
DC
Erik Chinander
Yr 2
#1
Northwestern
Pat Fitzgerald #1
109–89 (55%)
· Yr 17 at school
OC
Mike Bajakian
Yr 2
#1
DC
Jim O'Neil
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓