Sun, Sep 18 2022
·
Week 3
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🏟 Arizona Stadium
Tucson, AZ
·
Turf
·
56,029 cap
North Dakota State✈ 1,259 mi-2 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Arizona wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
North Dakota State -3
O/U 49.0
consensus
North Dakota State 2022 Schedule
North Dakota State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/17 | North Dakota State at Arizona | -3.0L28–31 | 49.0 | L28–31 | O | N |
Arizona 2022 Schedule
Arizona's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arizona at San Diego State | +6.0W38–20 | 46.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arizona vs Mississippi State | +11.5L17–39 | 57.5 | L17–39 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Arizona vs North Dakota State | +3.0W31–28 | 49.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Arizona at California | +3.5L31–49 | 50.0 | L31–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arizona vs Colorado | -17.5W43–20 | 57.5 | W43–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arizona vs Oregon | +13.5L22–49 | 70.5 | L22–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arizona at Washington | +14.5L39–49 | 71.5 | L39–49 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Arizona vs USC | +14.0L37–45 | 74.0 | L37–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Arizona at Utah | +17.5L20–45 | 67.5 | L20–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arizona at UCLA | +19.5W34–28 | 76.5 | W34–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Arizona vs Washington State | +4.0L20–31 | 63.0 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Arizona vs Arizona State | -4.0W38–35 | 66.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
North Dakota State Edge
North Dakota State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +14.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓