Sat, Sep 24 2022
·
Week 4
·
🏟 California Memorial Stadium
Berkeley, CA
·
Turf
·
62,717 cap
Arizona✈ 747 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Arizona,
while Game Control favors California.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
73.7%
Arizona wins
Solid
Game Control
67.1%
California wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
California -3.5
O/U 50.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Arizona 2022 Schedule
Arizona's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Arizona at San Diego State | +6.0W38–20 | 46.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Arizona vs Mississippi State | +11.5L17–39 | 57.5 | L17–39 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Arizona vs North Dakota State | +3.0W31–28 | 49.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Arizona at California | +3.5L31–49 | 50.0 | L31–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Arizona vs Colorado | -17.5W43–20 | 57.5 | W43–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Arizona vs Oregon | +13.5L22–49 | 70.5 | L22–49 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Arizona at Washington | +14.5L39–49 | 71.5 | L39–49 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Arizona vs USC | +14.0L37–45 | 74.0 | L37–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Arizona at Utah | +17.5L20–45 | 67.5 | L20–45 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Arizona at UCLA | +19.5W34–28 | 76.5 | W34–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Arizona vs Washington State | +4.0L20–31 | 63.0 | L20–31 | U | N |
| Fri 11/25 | Arizona vs Arizona State | -4.0W38–35 | 66.5 | W38–35 | O | N |
California 2022 Schedule
California's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | California vs UC Davis | -14.0W34–13 | 44.0 | W34–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | California vs UNLV | -12.0W20–14 | 49.5 | W20–14 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | California at Notre Dame | +13.5L17–24 | 41.5 | L17–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | California vs Arizona | -3.5W49–31 | 50.0 | W49–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | California at Washington State | +4.0L9–28 | 52.5 | L9–28 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/15 | California at Colorado | -15.0L13–20 | 49.0 | L13–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | California vs Washington | +7.5L21–28 | 54.5 | L21–28 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | California vs Oregon | +16.5L24–42 | 56.5 | L24–42 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | California at USC | +21.5L35–41 | 60.5 | L35–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | California at Oregon State | +11.5L10–38 | 47.0 | L10–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/19 | California vs Stanford | -5.0W27–20 | 46.0 | W27–20 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | California vs UCLA | +11.5L28–35 | 62.5 | L28–35 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Arizona Edge
Arizona +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
California Edge
California +19.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
California
2 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
California
52.2 — 22.2 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
California won by 18
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Arizona
Jedd Fisch #1
1–11 (8%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Brennan Carroll
Yr 2
#1
DC
Johnny Nansen
Yr 1
#1
California
Justin Wilcox #1
26–28 (48%)
· Yr 6 at school
OC
Bill Musgrave
Yr 2
#1
DC
Peter Sirmon
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓