Matchup Prediction
Iowa
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Iowa entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Iowa wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Iowa wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Iowa -3.0
O/U 31.5
Bovada
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Iowa 2022 Schedule
Iowa's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Iowa vs South Dakota State | -11.0W7–3 | 42.5 | W7–3 | U | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Iowa vs Iowa State | -3.5L7–10 | 39.0 | L7–10 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Iowa vs Nevada | -24.0W27–0 | 39.0 | W27–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Iowa at Rutgers | -7.5W27–10 | 34.5 | W27–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/1 | Iowa vs Michigan | +10.5L14–27 | 42.0 | L14–27 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Iowa at Illinois | +3.5L6–9 | 36.5 | L6–9 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/22 | Iowa at Ohio State | +29.5L10–54 | 50.0 | L10–54 | O | N |
| Sat 10/29 | Iowa vs Northwestern | -11.5W33–13 | 37.0 | W33–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Iowa at Purdue | +3.5W24–3 | 39.5 | W24–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Iowa vs Wisconsin | -1.0W24–10 | 35.5 | W24–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Iowa at Minnesota | +2.0W13–10 | 31.5 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Fri 11/25 | Iowa vs Nebraska | -10.5L17–24 | 38.0 | L17–24 | O | N |
| Sat 12/31 | Iowa vs Kentucky | -3.0W21–0 | 31.5 | W21–0 | U | Y |
Kentucky 2022 Schedule
Kentucky's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Kentucky vs Miami (OH) | -15.0W37–13 | 55.0 | W37–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Kentucky at Florida | +6.0W26–16 | 53.0 | W26–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Kentucky vs Youngstown State | -30.0W31–0 | 49.5 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Kentucky vs Northern Illinois | -27.0W31–23 | 52.5 | W31–23 | O | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Kentucky at Ole Miss | +6.5L19–22 | 55.0 | L19–22 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Kentucky vs South Carolina | -4.0L14–24 | 45.0 | L14–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Kentucky vs Mississippi State | +3.5W27–17 | 50.5 | W27–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Kentucky at Tennessee | +10.5L6–44 | 62.5 | L6–44 | U | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Kentucky at Missouri | +1.0W21–17 | 40.0 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Kentucky vs Vanderbilt | -17.0L21–24 | 45.5 | L21–24 | U | N |
| Sat 11/19 | Kentucky vs Georgia | +22.5L6–16 | 47.5 | L6–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Kentucky vs Louisville | -3.5W26–13 | 42.5 | W26–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 12/31 | Kentucky vs Iowa | +3.0L0–21 | 31.5 | L0–21 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Iowa Edge
Iowa +0.27
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 11 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Iowa Edge
Iowa +4.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 12 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Iowa, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Iowa
Kirk Ferentz #1
177–110 (62%)
· Yr 24 at school
OC
Brian Ferentz
Yr 2
#1
DC
Phil Parker
Yr 2
#1
Kentucky
Mark Stoops #1
59–53 (53%)
· Yr 10 at school
OC
Rich Scangarello
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brad White
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓