Thu, Sep 1 2022
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Neyland Stadium
Knoxville, TN
·
Turf
·
102,455 cap
Ball State✈ 305 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -37
O/U 66.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Tennessee
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2022 Schedule
Ball State's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Ball State at Tennessee | +37.0L10–59 | 66.5 | L10–59 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Ball State vs Western Michigan | +6.5L30–37 | 51.5 | L30–37 | O | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Ball State vs Murray State | -21.0W31–0 | 53.0 | W31–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Ball State at Georgia Southern | +9.5L23–34 | 67.0 | L23–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Ball State vs Northern Illinois | +3.5W44–38 | 58.5 | W44–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Ball State at Central Michigan | +7.5W17–16 | 63.0 | W17–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Ball State vs UConn | -9.5W25–21 | 47.5 | W25–21 | U | N |
| Sat 10/22 | Ball State vs Eastern Michigan | -2.5L16–20 | 57.5 | L16–20 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/1 | Ball State at Kent State | +7.0W27–20 | 61.5 | W27–20 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/8 | Ball State at Toledo | +11.0L21–28 | 50.0 | L21–28 | U | Y |
| Tue 11/15 | Ball State vs Ohio | +3.5L18–32 | 57.5 | L18–32 | U | N |
| Tue 11/22 | Ball State at Miami (OH) | +2.5L17–18 | 45.0 | L17–18 | U | Y |
Tennessee 2022 Schedule
Tennessee's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Tennessee vs Ball State | -37.0W59–10 | 66.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Tennessee at Pittsburgh | -6.0W34–27 | 63.0 | W34–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Tennessee vs Akron | -47.5W63–6 | 67.0 | W63–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Tennessee vs Florida | -11.0W38–33 | 62.0 | W38–33 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Tennessee at LSU | -2.5W40–13 | 63.0 | W40–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Tennessee vs Alabama | +9.0W52–49 | 68.0 | W52–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Tennessee vs UT Martin | -38.5W65–24 | 71.5 | W65–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Tennessee vs Kentucky | -10.5W44–6 | 62.5 | W44–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Tennessee at Georgia | +9.5L13–27 | 65.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Tennessee vs Missouri | -18.5W66–24 | 57.5 | W66–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Tennessee at South Carolina | -22.5L38–63 | 66.5 | L38–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Tennessee at Vanderbilt | -14.0W56–0 | 63.5 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | Tennessee vs Clemson | +4.0W31–14 | 62.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Ball State Edge
Ball State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tennessee
5 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Tennessee
99.8 — 0.1 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Tennessee won by 49
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Tennessee, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Neu #1
28–41 (41%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Kevin Lynch
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tyler Stockton
Yr 2
#1
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Alex Golesh
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓