Matchup Prediction
Georgia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Georgia entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Georgia wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Georgia wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Georgia -9.5
O/U 65.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Georgia
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Tennessee 2022 Schedule
Tennessee's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/1 | Tennessee vs Ball State | -37.0W59–10 | 66.5 | W59–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Tennessee at Pittsburgh | -6.0W34–27 | 63.0 | W34–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/17 | Tennessee vs Akron | -47.5W63–6 | 67.0 | W63–6 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Tennessee vs Florida | -11.0W38–33 | 62.0 | W38–33 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/8 | Tennessee at LSU | -2.5W40–13 | 63.0 | W40–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Tennessee vs Alabama | +9.0W52–49 | 68.0 | W52–49 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/22 | Tennessee vs UT Martin | -38.5W65–24 | 71.5 | W65–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/29 | Tennessee vs Kentucky | -10.5W44–6 | 62.5 | W44–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/5 | Tennessee at Georgia | +9.5L13–27 | 65.5 | L13–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/12 | Tennessee vs Missouri | -18.5W66–24 | 57.5 | W66–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Tennessee at South Carolina | -22.5L38–63 | 66.5 | L38–63 | O | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Tennessee at Vanderbilt | -14.0W56–0 | 63.5 | W56–0 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/30 | Tennessee vs Clemson | +4.0W31–14 | 62.0 | W31–14 | U | Y |
Georgia 2022 Schedule
Georgia's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Georgia vs Oregon | -16.0W49–3 | 54.5 | W49–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/10 | Georgia vs Samford | -53.0W33–0 | 62.5 | W33–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Georgia at South Carolina | -25.5W48–7 | 56.0 | W48–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/24 | Georgia vs Kent State | -45.0W39–22 | 61.5 | W39–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Georgia at Missouri | -30.5W26–22 | 54.0 | W26–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/8 | Georgia vs Auburn | -27.5W42–10 | 49.5 | W42–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/15 | Georgia vs Vanderbilt | -37.5W55–0 | 56.5 | W55–0 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Georgia vs Florida | -23.0W42–20 | 56.5 | W42–20 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Georgia vs Tennessee | -9.5W27–13 | 65.5 | W27–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Georgia at Mississippi State | -16.5W45–19 | 53.0 | W45–19 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Georgia at Kentucky | -22.5W16–6 | 47.5 | W16–6 | U | N |
| Sat 11/26 | Georgia vs Georgia Tech | -36.5W37–14 | 49.0 | W37–14 | O | N |
| Sat 12/3 | Georgia vs LSU | -17.0W50–30 | 52.0 | W50–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 12/31 | Georgia vs Ohio State | -5.5W42–41 | 62.0 | W42–41 | O | N |
| Mon 1/9 | Georgia vs TCU | -13.5W65–7 | 62.0 | W65–7 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2022 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Georgia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +0.16
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Georgia Edge
Georgia +9.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Georgia
2 — 0 sequences
✓ Predicted correctly
GC Battle
Georgia
89.4 — 3.8 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Georgia won by 14
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Georgia. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
7–6 (54%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Alex Golesh
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Banks
Yr 2
#1
Georgia
Kirby Smart #1
66–15 (82%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Todd Monken
Yr 2
#1
DC
Will Muschamp
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓