Tennessee at South Carolina Week 12 College Football Matchup Tennessee at South Carolina Matchup - Week 12
Sun, Nov 20 2022 · Week 12 · 🏟 Williams-Brice Stadium Columbia, SC · Turf · 80,250 cap
Tennessee✈ 214 miSame TZ
38 63
Final
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Tennessee
38
South Carolina
28
P&R Line Tennessee -10
P&R Total O/U 65
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Tennessee -22.5 · O/U 66.5
Matchup Prediction
Tennessee has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Tennessee entering this game.
Momentum Control
80.6%
Tennessee wins
Strong
Game Control
75.9%
Tennessee wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Tennessee -22.5
O/U 66.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Tennessee · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Tennessee 2022 Schedule
Tennessee's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/1Tennessee vs Ball State-37.0W59–1066.5W59–10OY
Sat 9/10Tennessee at Pittsburgh-6.0W34–2763.0W34–27UY
Sat 9/17Tennessee vs Akron-47.5W63–667.0W63–6OY
Sat 9/24Tennessee vs Florida-11.0W38–3362.0W38–33ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/8Tennessee at LSU-2.5W40–1363.0W40–13UY
Sat 10/15Tennessee vs Alabama+9.0W52–4968.0W52–49OY
Sat 10/22Tennessee vs UT Martin-38.5W65–2471.5W65–24OY
Sat 10/29Tennessee vs Kentucky-10.5W44–662.5W44–6UY
Sat 11/5Tennessee at Georgia+9.5L13–2765.5L13–27UN
Sat 11/12Tennessee vs Missouri-18.5W66–2457.5W66–24OY
Sat 11/19Tennessee at South Carolina-22.5L38–6366.5L38–63ON
Sat 11/26Tennessee at Vanderbilt-14.0W56–063.5W56–0UY
Fri 12/30Tennessee vs Clemson+4.0W31–1462.0W31–14UY
South Carolina 2022 Schedule
South Carolina's 2022 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/3South Carolina vs Georgia State-12.5W35–1455.0W35–14UY
Sat 9/10South Carolina at Arkansas+9.0L30–4456.0L30–44ON
Sat 9/17South Carolina vs Georgia+25.5L7–4856.0L7–48UN
Sat 9/24South Carolina vs Charlotte-23.5W56–2066.5W56–20OY
Thu 9/29South Carolina vs South Carolina State-40.5W50–1057.0W50–10ON
Sat 10/8South Carolina at Kentucky+4.0W24–1445.0W24–14UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/22South Carolina vs Texas A&M+3.0W30–2444.5W30–24OY
Sat 10/29South Carolina vs Missouri-3.5L10–2345.5L10–23UN
Sat 11/5South Carolina at Vanderbilt-6.5W38–2749.0W38–27OY
Sat 11/12South Carolina at Florida+8.0L6–3858.0L6–38UN
Sat 11/19South Carolina vs Tennessee+22.5W63–3866.5W63–38OY
Sat 11/26South Carolina at Clemson+14.0W31–3053.0W31–30OY
Fri 12/30South Carolina vs Notre Dame+5.0L38–4550.5L38–45ON
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2022 season
Tennessee PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Tennessee
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Tennessee
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Tennessee
+0.563
South Carolina
+0.404
Tennessee Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Tennessee
+0.641
South Carolina
+0.606
Tennessee Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Tennessee
0.164
South Carolina
0.156
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Tennessee Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Tennessee
+8.933
South Carolina
+7.697
Tennessee Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Tennessee
+0.966
South Carolina
+0.828
Tennessee Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Tennessee
69.4
South Carolina
69.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Tennessee Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2022 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Tennessee Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Tennessee
14.6
South Carolina
5.3
Offense Rating
Tennessee
21.0
South Carolina
18.3
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Tennessee
6.4
South Carolina
13.0
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Tennessee Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Tennessee #11
3.00
South Carolina #52
0.89
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Tennessee #58
0.70
South Carolina #120
1.78
Tennessee +2.11
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 80.6% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Tennessee Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Tennessee #1
75.3
South Carolina #1
51.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Tennessee #9
17.5
South Carolina #73
40.7
Tennessee +24.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
South Carolina
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
South Carolina
53.7 — 28.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
South Carolina won by 25
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Tennessee with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Tennessee
Josh Heupel #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Alex Golesh Yr 2 #1
DC Tim Banks Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
South Carolina
Shane Beamer #1
7–6 (54%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Marcus Satterfield Yr 2 #1
DC Clayton White Yr 2 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself