Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2022 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2021 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Auburn wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Auburn -30
O/U 51.5
consensus
Mercer 2022 Schedule
Mercer's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Mercer at Auburn | +30.0L16–42 | 51.5 | L16–42 | O | Y |
Auburn 2022 Schedule
Auburn's 2022 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/3 | Auburn vs Mercer | -30.0W42–16 | 51.5 | W42–16 | O | N |
| Sat 9/10 | Auburn vs San José State | -24.0W24–16 | 48.5 | W24–16 | U | N |
| Sat 9/17 | Auburn vs Penn State | +2.5L12–41 | 47.5 | L12–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/24 | Auburn vs Missouri | -7.5W17–14 | 51.0 | W17–14 | U | N |
| Sat 10/1 | Auburn vs LSU | +8.0L17–21 | 44.5 | L17–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/8 | Auburn at Georgia | +27.5L10–42 | 49.5 | L10–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/15 | Auburn at Ole Miss | +15.5L34–48 | 55.5 | L34–48 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/29 | Auburn vs Arkansas | +4.0L27–41 | 60.0 | L27–41 | O | N |
| Sat 11/5 | Auburn at Mississippi State | +12.5L33–39 | 50.5 | L33–39 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/12 | Auburn vs Texas A&M | -1.5W13–10 | 48.0 | W13–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/19 | Auburn vs Western Kentucky | -5.0W41–17 | 54.0 | W41–17 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/26 | Auburn at Alabama | +22.0L27–49 | 51.0 | L27–49 | O | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Mercer Edge
Mercer +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Auburn Edge
Auburn +43.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2021 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓