Boise State at UCF Week 1 College Football Matchup Boise State at UCF Matchup - Week 1
Thu, Sep 2 2021 · Week 1 · 🏟 Bright House Networks Stadium Orlando, FL · Turf · 44,206 cap
Boise State✈ 2,189 mi+2 hr TZ
31 36
Final
UCF
Home
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Boise State
31
UCF
29
P&R Line Boise State -2
P&R Total O/U 59.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas UCF -6.5 · O/U 67.0
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
UCF -6.5
O/U 67.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → UCF · 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Boise State 2021 Schedule
Boise State's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2Boise State at UCF+6.5L31–3667.0L31–36UY
Fri 9/10Boise State vs UTEP-25.0W54–1356.0W54–13OY
Sat 9/18Boise State vs Oklahoma State-3.5L20–2158.5L20–21UN
Sat 9/25Boise State at Utah State-9.5W27–369.5W27–3UY
Sat 10/2Boise State vs Nevada-3.5L31–4159.0L31–41ON
Sat 10/9Boise State at BYU+6.0W26–1758.0W26–17UY
Sat 10/16Boise State vs Air Force-3.0L17–2452.0L17–24UN
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/30Boise State at Colorado State-2.0W28–1951.5W28–19UY
Sat 11/6Boise State at Fresno State+4.0W40–1461.5W40–14UY
Fri 11/12Boise State vs Wyoming-14.0W23–1349.0W23–13UN
Sat 11/20Boise State vs New Mexico-27.5W37–048.0W37–0UY
Fri 11/26Boise State at San Diego State-3.0L16–2744.0L16–27UN
Fri 12/31Boise State vs Central Michigan-7.555.5
UCF 2021 Schedule
UCF's 2021 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Thu 9/2UCF vs Boise State-6.5W36–3167.0W36–31UN
Sat 9/11UCF vs Bethune-Cookman-46.0W63–1467.0W63–14OY
Fri 9/17UCF at Louisville-7.0L35–4267.5L35–42ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/2UCF at Navy-15.0L30–3452.5L30–34ON
Sat 10/9UCF vs East Carolina-10.0W20–1665.0W20–16UN
Sat 10/16UCF at Cincinnati+21.5L21–5656.0L21–56ON
Fri 10/22UCF vs Memphis-1.5W24–763.5W24–7UY
Sat 10/30UCF at Temple-12.0W49–752.0W49–7OY
Sat 11/6UCF vs Tulane-13.5W14–1057.0W14–10UN
Sat 11/13UCF at SMU+7.0L28–5561.5L28–55ON
Sat 11/20UCF vs UConn-30.0W49–1756.0W49–17OY
Fri 11/26UCF vs South Florida-17.0W17–1362.0W17–13UN
Thu 12/23UCF vs Florida+7.0W29–1756.0W29–17UY
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Boise State
+0.352
UCF
+0.352
Even
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Boise State
+0.437
UCF
+0.418
Boise State Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Boise State
0.166
UCF
0.190
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
UCF Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Boise State
+7.493
UCF
+7.707
UCF Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Boise State
+0.834
UCF
+0.814
Boise State Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Boise State
70.2
UCF
68.8
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
UCF Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
UCF Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Boise State
3.2
UCF
4.2
Offense Rating
Boise State
18.1
UCF
17.6
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Boise State
14.9
UCF
13.4
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Boise State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Boise State #16
0.00
UCF #71
0.00
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Boise State #56
0.00
UCF #109
0.00
Boise State +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Boise State Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Boise State #1
0.0
UCF #1
0.0
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Boise State #32
0.0
UCF #37
0.0
Boise State +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Boise State
32.7 — 49.0 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UCF won by 5
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on UCF, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Boise State
Andy Avalos #1
1–2 (33%) · Yr 1 at school
OC Tim Plough Yr 1 #1
DC Spencer Danielson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
2–1 (67%) · Yr 1 at school
OC G. J. Kinne Yr 1 #1
DC Travis Williams Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself