Matchup Prediction
Memphis
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Memphis entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Memphis wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Memphis wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
UCF -1.5
O/U 63.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → UCF
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Memphis 2021 Schedule
Memphis's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Memphis vs Nicholls | -22.5W42–17 | 68.0 | W42–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Memphis at Arkansas State | -5.5W55–50 | 65.0 | W55–50 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Memphis vs Mississippi State | +3.0W31–29 | 63.0 | W31–29 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Memphis vs UTSA | -3.0L28–31 | 66.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Memphis at Temple | -11.0L31–34 | 58.5 | L31–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Memphis at Tulsa | +3.0L29–35 | 60.5 | L29–35 | O | N |
| Thu 10/14 | Memphis vs Navy | -11.0W35–17 | 55.5 | W35–17 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/22 | Memphis at UCF | +1.5L7–24 | 63.5 | L7–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Memphis vs SMU | +3.5W28–25 | 72.0 | W28–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Memphis vs East Carolina | -4.0L29–30 | 58.5 | L29–30 | O | N |
| Fri 11/19 | Memphis at Houston | +9.0L13–31 | 59.5 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Memphis vs Tulane | -5.5W33–28 | 58.0 | W33–28 | O | N |
| Fri 12/24 | Memphis at Hawai'i | -10.0 | 56.0 | — | — | — |
UCF 2021 Schedule
UCF's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | UCF vs Boise State | -6.5W36–31 | 67.0 | W36–31 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | UCF vs Bethune-Cookman | -46.0W63–14 | 67.0 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/17 | UCF at Louisville | -7.0L35–42 | 67.5 | L35–42 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | UCF at Navy | -15.0L30–34 | 52.5 | L30–34 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | UCF vs East Carolina | -10.0W20–16 | 65.0 | W20–16 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UCF at Cincinnati | +21.5L21–56 | 56.0 | L21–56 | O | N |
| Fri 10/22 | UCF vs Memphis | -1.5W24–7 | 63.5 | W24–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | UCF at Temple | -12.0W49–7 | 52.0 | W49–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | UCF vs Tulane | -13.5W14–10 | 57.0 | W14–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | UCF at SMU | +7.0L28–55 | 61.5 | L28–55 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | UCF vs UConn | -30.0W49–17 | 56.0 | W49–17 | O | Y |
| Fri 11/26 | UCF vs South Florida | -17.0W17–13 | 62.0 | W17–13 | U | N |
| Thu 12/23 | UCF vs Florida | +7.0W29–17 | 56.0 | W29–17 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ UCF
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ UCF
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Memphis Edge
Memphis +0.20
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Memphis Edge
Memphis +17.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
UCF
1 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UCF
87.1 — 7.7 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UCF won by 17
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Memphis with a solid GC edge. Teams with this profile have covered 53.0% of the time historically (n=330) — a mild lean.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Memphis
Ryan Silverfield #1
11–4 (73%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Kevin Johns
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike MacIntyre
Yr 1
#1
UCF
Gus Malzahn #1
2–1 (67%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
G. J. Kinne
Yr 1
#1
DC
Travis Williams
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓