Sat, Nov 6 2021
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium
Troy, AL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
South Alabama✈ 145 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Game Control
58.3%
South Alabama wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Troy -3.5
O/U 47.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2021 Schedule
South Alabama's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | -2.0W31–7 | 56.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | South Alabama at Bowling Green | -14.5W22–19 | 48.0 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | South Alabama vs Alcorn State | -21.5W28–21 | 44.5 | W28–21 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | +12.0L18–20 | 52.5 | L18–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | South Alabama at Texas State | -4.0L31–33 | 52.5 | L31–33 | O | N |
| Thu 10/14 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W41–14 | 49.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -13.5L31–41 | 51.5 | L31–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -9.5W31–13 | 67.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | South Alabama at Troy | +3.5L24–31 | 47.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | South Alabama at App State | +21.5L7–31 | 51.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | South Alabama at Tennessee | +28.5L14–60 | 61.5 | L14–60 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | +14.5L21–27 | 55.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
Troy 2021 Schedule
Troy's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Troy vs Southern | -25.0W55–3 | 55.0 | W55–3 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Troy vs Liberty | +3.0L13–21 | 62.5 | L13–21 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Troy at Southern Miss | -11.0W21–9 | 49.0 | W21–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Troy at UL Monroe | -23.5L16–29 | 49.5 | L16–29 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Troy at South Carolina | +6.5L14–23 | 43.0 | L14–23 | U | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Troy vs Georgia Southern | -5.5W27–24 | 51.0 | W27–24 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Troy at Texas State | -7.5W31–28 | 49.0 | W31–28 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/28 | Troy at Coastal Carolina | +17.0L28–35 | 50.0 | L28–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Troy vs South Alabama | -3.5W31–24 | 47.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Troy vs Louisiana | +6.5L21–35 | 48.0 | L21–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Troy vs App State | +10.0L7–45 | 51.0 | L7–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Troy at Georgia State | +6.5L10–37 | 49.5 | L10–37 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +1.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +9.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Troy
3 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Troy
70.5 — 14.8 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Troy won by 7
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Alabama. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Kane Wommack #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Major Applewhite
Yr 1
#1
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 1
#1
Troy
Chip Lindsey #1
12–14 (46%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Luke Meadows
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brandon Hall
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓