Sat, Oct 23 2021
·
Week 8
·
🏟 Malone Stadium
Monroe, LA
·
Turf
·
30,427 cap
South Alabama✈ 268 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
South Alabama
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Alabama entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
South Alabama wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
South Alabama wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
South Alabama -13.5
O/U 51.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → South Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
South Alabama 2021 Schedule
South Alabama's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | South Alabama vs Southern Miss | -2.0W31–7 | 56.5 | W31–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | South Alabama at Bowling Green | -14.5W22–19 | 48.0 | W22–19 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | South Alabama vs Alcorn State | -21.5W28–21 | 44.5 | W28–21 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/2 | South Alabama vs Louisiana | +12.0L18–20 | 52.5 | L18–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | South Alabama at Texas State | -4.0L31–33 | 52.5 | L31–33 | O | N |
| Thu 10/14 | South Alabama vs Georgia Southern | -2.5W41–14 | 49.0 | W41–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | South Alabama at UL Monroe | -13.5L31–41 | 51.5 | L31–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/30 | South Alabama vs Arkansas State | -9.5W31–13 | 67.0 | W31–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | South Alabama at Troy | +3.5L24–31 | 47.5 | L24–31 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | South Alabama at App State | +21.5L7–31 | 51.5 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | South Alabama at Tennessee | +28.5L14–60 | 61.5 | L14–60 | O | N |
| Fri 11/26 | South Alabama vs Coastal Carolina | +14.5L21–27 | 55.5 | L21–27 | U | Y |
UL Monroe 2021 Schedule
UL Monroe's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | UL Monroe at Kentucky | +31.0L10–45 | 54.0 | L10–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/18 | UL Monroe vs Jackson State | -4.5W12–7 | 52.0 | W12–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | UL Monroe vs Troy | +23.5W29–16 | 49.5 | W29–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | UL Monroe at Coastal Carolina | +33.5L6–59 | 57.5 | L6–59 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | UL Monroe vs Georgia State | +16.0L21–55 | 49.5 | L21–55 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | UL Monroe vs Liberty | +32.5W31–28 | 57.0 | W31–28 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | UL Monroe vs South Alabama | +13.5W41–31 | 51.5 | W41–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | UL Monroe at App State | +26.5L28–59 | 57.5 | L28–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | UL Monroe at Texas State | +3.0L19–27 | 57.5 | L19–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | UL Monroe vs Arkansas State | -3.0L24–27 | 66.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | UL Monroe at LSU | +29.0L14–27 | 57.5 | L14–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | UL Monroe at Louisiana | +21.5L16–21 | 56.0 | L16–21 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ South Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +0.60
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 5 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Alabama Edge
South Alabama +37.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 6 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
UL Monroe
39.0 — 38.9 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
UL Monroe won by 10
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on South Alabama with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
South Alabama
Kane Wommack #1
3–0 (100%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Major Applewhite
Yr 1
#1
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 1
#1
UL Monroe
Terry Bowden #1
1–1 (50%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Rich Rodriguez
Yr 1
#1
DC
Zac Alley
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓