Sat, Nov 6 2021
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Maryland Stadium
College Park, MD
·
Turf
·
51,802 cap
Penn State✈ 134 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Maryland,
while Game Control favors Penn State.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Maryland wins
Lean
Game Control
75.9%
Penn State wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Penn State -10
O/U 56.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
3 factors agree (PPA + PPO + Havoc) → Penn State
· 82.4% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Penn State 2021 Schedule
Penn State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Penn State at Wisconsin | +5.5W16–10 | 48.5 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Penn State vs Ball State | -23.0W44–13 | 58.0 | W44–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Penn State vs Auburn | -4.0W28–20 | 53.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Penn State vs Villanova | -29.5W38–17 | 53.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Penn State vs Indiana | -12.0W24–0 | 54.5 | W24–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Penn State at Iowa | +2.5L20–23 | 41.0 | L20–23 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Penn State vs Illinois | -24.5L18–20 | 46.0 | L18–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Penn State at Ohio State | +18.5L24–33 | 60.5 | L24–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Penn State at Maryland | -10.0W31–14 | 56.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Penn State vs Michigan | +2.5L17–21 | 48.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Penn State vs Rutgers | -14.0W28–0 | 44.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Penn State at Michigan State | -3.5L27–30 | 51.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 1/1 | Penn State vs Arkansas | +3.5L10–24 | 51.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
Maryland 2021 Schedule
Maryland's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Maryland vs West Virginia | +2.5W30–24 | 56.0 | W30–24 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Maryland vs Howard | -48.5W62–0 | 56.0 | W62–0 | O | Y |
| Fri 9/17 | Maryland at Illinois | -7.0W20–17 | 61.5 | W20–17 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Maryland vs Kent State | -13.0W37–16 | 71.5 | W37–16 | U | Y |
| Fri 10/1 | Maryland vs Iowa | +3.0L14–51 | 47.5 | L14–51 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Maryland at Ohio State | +22.0L17–66 | 71.5 | L17–66 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Maryland at Minnesota | +4.0L16–34 | 53.0 | L16–34 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Maryland vs Indiana | -3.5W38–35 | 48.0 | W38–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Maryland vs Penn State | +10.0L14–31 | 56.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Maryland at Michigan State | +11.5L21–40 | 60.0 | L21–40 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Maryland vs Michigan | +16.0L18–59 | 58.5 | L18–59 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Maryland at Rutgers | +2.0W40–16 | 53.0 | W40–16 | O | Y |
| Wed 12/29 | Maryland vs Virginia Tech | -4.0W54–10 | 55.0 | W54–10 | O | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Penn State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Maryland Edge
Maryland +0.29
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +19.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
CSS and GC disagree on this matchup. When the metrics split, historical cover rates are essentially random — treat this as a coin flip against the spread.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Penn State
James Franklin #1
63–28 (69%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Anthony Poindexter / Brent Pry
Yr 1
#1
Maryland
Mike Locksley #1
9–17 (35%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Dan Enos
Yr 1
#1
DC
Brian Williams
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓