Sat, Nov 20 2021
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Rutgers✈ 178 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Penn State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Penn State -14
O/U 44.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Penn State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Rutgers 2021 Schedule
Rutgers's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Rutgers vs Temple | -14.0W61–14 | 52.0 | W61–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Rutgers at Syracuse | -2.5W17–7 | 50.5 | W17–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Rutgers vs Delaware | -20.0W45–13 | 45.0 | W45–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Rutgers at Michigan | +20.0L13–20 | 50.0 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Rutgers vs Ohio State | +15.0L13–52 | 58.0 | L13–52 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Rutgers vs Michigan State | +4.5L13–31 | 50.0 | L13–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Rutgers at Northwestern | -2.5L7–21 | 45.0 | L7–21 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Rutgers at Illinois | -1.5W20–14 | 41.5 | W20–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Rutgers vs Wisconsin | +13.0L3–52 | 37.5 | L3–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Rutgers at Indiana | +6.5W38–3 | 42.5 | W38–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Rutgers at Penn State | +14.0L0–28 | 44.5 | L0–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Rutgers vs Maryland | -2.0L16–40 | 53.0 | L16–40 | O | N |
| Fri 12/31 | Rutgers vs Wake Forest | +17.0L10–38 | 63.0 | L10–38 | U | N |
Penn State 2021 Schedule
Penn State's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Penn State at Wisconsin | +5.5W16–10 | 48.5 | W16–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Penn State vs Ball State | -23.0W44–13 | 58.0 | W44–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Penn State vs Auburn | -4.0W28–20 | 53.0 | W28–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/25 | Penn State vs Villanova | -29.5W38–17 | 53.0 | W38–17 | O | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Penn State vs Indiana | -12.0W24–0 | 54.5 | W24–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Penn State at Iowa | +2.5L20–23 | 41.0 | L20–23 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Penn State vs Illinois | -24.5L18–20 | 46.0 | L18–20 | U | N |
| Sat 10/30 | Penn State at Ohio State | +18.5L24–33 | 60.5 | L24–33 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Penn State at Maryland | -10.0W31–14 | 56.5 | W31–14 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Penn State vs Michigan | +2.5L17–21 | 48.0 | L17–21 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Penn State vs Rutgers | -14.0W28–0 | 44.5 | W28–0 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Penn State at Michigan State | -3.5L27–30 | 51.5 | L27–30 | O | N |
| Sat 1/1 | Penn State vs Arkansas | +3.5L10–24 | 51.0 | L10–24 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Penn State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Rutgers +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +22.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Penn State
2 — 0 sequences
GC Battle
Penn State
85.5 — 4.9 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Penn State won by 28
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Penn State with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Rutgers
Greg Schiano #1
6–6 (50%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Sean Gleeson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Robb Smith
Yr 1
#1
Penn State
James Franklin #1
63–28 (69%)
· Yr 8 at school
OC
Mike Yurcich
Yr 1
#1
DC
Anthony Poindexter / Brent Pry
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓