Sat, Sep 11 2021
·
Week 2
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🏟 Foreman Field
Norfolk, VA
·
Turf
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20,118 cap
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Old Dominion -21.5
O/U 55.0
consensus
Hampton 2021 Schedule
Hampton's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/11 | Hampton at Old Dominion | +21.5L7–47 | 55.0 | L7–47 | U | N |
Old Dominion 2021 Schedule
Old Dominion's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fri 9/3 | Old Dominion at Wake Forest | +32.5L10–42 | 61.5 | L10–42 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Old Dominion vs Hampton | -21.5W47–7 | 55.0 | W47–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Old Dominion at Liberty | +26.5L17–45 | 53.5 | L17–45 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Old Dominion vs Buffalo | +13.0L34–35 | 50.5 | L34–35 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Old Dominion at UTEP | +5.5L21–28 | 48.5 | L21–28 | O | N |
| Sat 10/9 | Old Dominion at Marshall | +21.5L13–20 | 62.0 | L13–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/16 | Old Dominion vs Western Kentucky | +13.5L20–43 | 66.5 | L20–43 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/30 | Old Dominion vs Louisiana Tech | +4.0W23–20 | 52.0 | W23–20 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Old Dominion at Florida International | -3.0W47–24 | 50.0 | W47–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/13 | Old Dominion vs Florida Atlantic | +6.5W30–16 | 48.0 | W30–16 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Old Dominion at Middle Tennessee | +3.0W24–17 | 48.5 | W24–17 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Old Dominion vs Charlotte | -8.5W56–34 | 55.5 | W56–34 | O | Y |
| Mon 12/20 | Old Dominion vs Tulsa | +7.5L17–30 | 55.0 | L17–30 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Hampton Edge
Hampton +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Hampton Edge
Hampton +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 1 game this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Old Dominion
6 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Old Dominion
97.7 — 0.6 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Old Dominion won by 40
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Old Dominion, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓