Sat, Oct 2 2021
·
Week 5
·
🏟 FAU Stadium
Boca Raton, FL
·
Turf
·
30,000 cap
Matchup Prediction
Florida International
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida International entering this game.
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida International wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
Florida International wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Florida Atlantic -10.5
O/U 52.0
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida Atlantic
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida International 2021 Schedule
Florida International's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thu 9/2 | Florida International vs Long Island University | -35.0W48–10 | 49.0 | W48–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida International vs Texas State | -2.0L17–23 | 55.5 | L17–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida International at Texas Tech | +20.5L21–54 | 54.0 | L21–54 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida International at Central Michigan | +12.0L27–31 | 55.0 | L27–31 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida International at Florida Atlantic | +10.5L21–58 | 52.0 | L21–58 | O | N |
| Fri 10/8 | Florida International vs Charlotte | +3.5L33–45 | 61.0 | L33–45 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/23 | Florida International vs Western Kentucky | +16.5L19–34 | 78.0 | L19–34 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida International at Marshall | +21.5L0–38 | 64.0 | L0–38 | U | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida International vs Old Dominion | +3.0L24–47 | 50.0 | L24–47 | O | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida International at Middle Tennessee | +10.5L10–50 | 54.0 | L10–50 | O | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida International vs North Texas | +10.0L7–49 | 57.0 | L7–49 | U | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida International at Southern Miss | +14.5L17–37 | 45.5 | L17–37 | O | N |
Florida Atlantic 2021 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Florida Atlantic at Florida | +23.5L14–35 | 51.5 | L14–35 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Florida Atlantic vs Georgia Southern | -6.5W38–6 | 48.5 | W38–6 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/18 | Florida Atlantic vs Fordham | -31.0W45–14 | 51.5 | W45–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Florida Atlantic at Air Force | +3.5L7–31 | 54.0 | L7–31 | U | N |
| Sat 10/2 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International | -10.5W58–21 | 52.0 | W58–21 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Florida Atlantic at UAB | +3.5L14–31 | 48.5 | L14–31 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 10/21 | Florida Atlantic at Charlotte | -6.5W38–9 | 58.0 | W38–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Florida Atlantic vs UTEP | -11.0W28–25 | 49.0 | W28–25 | O | N |
| Sat 11/6 | Florida Atlantic vs Marshall | +1.0L13–28 | 58.0 | L13–28 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Florida Atlantic at Old Dominion | -6.5L16–30 | 48.0 | L16–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Florida Atlantic at Western Kentucky | +11.5L17–52 | 64.0 | L17–52 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Florida Atlantic vs Middle Tennessee | -3.5L17–27 | 49.5 | L17–27 | U | N |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida Atlantic
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 3 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida International Edge
Florida International +4.9
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 4 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Florida Atlantic
4 — 0 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Florida Atlantic
86.6 — 5.2 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Florida Atlantic won by 37
✗ Model missed it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Florida International, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Florida International
Butch Davis #1
24–23 (51%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Andrew Breiner
Yr 1
#1
DC
Everett Withers
Yr 1
#1
Florida Atlantic
Willie Taggart #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Johnson
Yr 1
#1
DC
Mike Stoops
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓