Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
50.6%
—
Toss-up
Vegas Spread
Alabama -19.5
O/U 61.5
teamrankings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Alabama
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Alabama 2021 Schedule
Alabama's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Alabama vs Miami | -19.5W44–13 | 61.5 | W44–13 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/11 | Alabama vs Mercer | -54.0W48–14 | 60.5 | W48–14 | O | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Alabama at Florida | -14.0W31–29 | 59.5 | W31–29 | O | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Alabama vs Southern Miss | -45.0W63–14 | 57.5 | W63–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/2 | Alabama vs Ole Miss | -15.0W42–21 | 79.5 | W42–21 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/9 | Alabama at Texas A&M | -18.5L38–41 | 50.5 | L38–41 | O | N |
| Sat 10/16 | Alabama at Mississippi State | -17.5W49–9 | 59.5 | W49–9 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Alabama vs Tennessee | -24.5W52–24 | 68.0 | W52–24 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/6 | Alabama vs LSU | -29.5W20–14 | 66.5 | W20–14 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Alabama vs New Mexico State | -50.0W59–3 | 67.0 | W59–3 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/20 | Alabama vs Arkansas | -20.5W42–35 | 58.5 | W42–35 | O | N |
| Sat 11/27 | Alabama at Auburn | -21.0W24–22 | 57.5 | W24–22 | U | N |
| Sat 12/4 | Alabama vs Georgia | +6.0W41–24 | 48.5 | W41–24 | O | Y |
| Fri 12/31 | Alabama vs Cincinnati | -13.0W27–6 | 57.5 | W27–6 | U | Y |
| Mon 1/10 | Alabama vs Georgia | +3.0L18–33 | 53.5 | L18–33 | U | N |
Miami 2021 Schedule
Miami's 2021 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/4 | Miami vs Alabama | +19.5L13–44 | 61.5 | L13–44 | U | N |
| Sat 9/11 | Miami vs App State | -7.5W25–23 | 55.0 | W25–23 | U | N |
| Sat 9/18 | Miami vs Michigan State | -7.0L17–38 | 57.5 | L17–38 | U | N |
| Sat 9/25 | Miami vs Central Connecticut | -46.0W69–0 | 55.5 | W69–0 | O | Y |
| Thu 9/30 | Miami vs Virginia | -3.5L28–30 | 63.5 | L28–30 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/16 | Miami at North Carolina | +7.5L42–45 | 63.5 | L42–45 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/23 | Miami vs NC State | +3.5W31–30 | 54.5 | W31–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/30 | Miami at Pittsburgh | +9.5W38–34 | 61.0 | W38–34 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/6 | Miami vs Georgia Tech | -10.0W33–30 | 63.0 | W33–30 | U | N |
| Sat 11/13 | Miami at Florida State | -2.5L28–31 | 61.5 | L28–31 | U | N |
| Sat 11/20 | Miami vs Virginia Tech | -7.0W38–26 | 55.5 | W38–26 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/27 | Miami at Duke | -20.5W47–10 | 67.0 | W47–10 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2021 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Alabama
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Alabama
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2021 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Alabama Edge
Alabama +0.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 50.6% of games historically
Based on 0 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Alabama
1 — 5 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Alabama
0.9 — 98.4 GC score
✗ Predicted incorrectly
Game Result
Alabama won by 31
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Miami, but the GC edge is small. When metrics agree but GC is near-neutral, the agreed-upon team has covered only 46.7% of the time historically (n=224) — potentially a fade signal.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Alabama
Nick Saban #1
167–23 (88%)
· Yr 15 at school
OC
Bill O'Brien
Yr 1
#1
DC
Pete Golding
Yr 1
#1
Miami
Manny Diaz #1
15–12 (56%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Rhett Lashlee
Yr 1
#1
DC
Manny Diaz
Yr 1
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓