Sacramento State at Ball State - 2026 Matchup Preview

Sacramento State Hornets at Ball State Cardinals

Saturday, October 24th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Scheumann Stadium - Muncie, IN (Mid-American)

Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

BALL is playing their 8th straight game
Our Line: Sacramento State -3.5 (SP+ SAC -2.5)
Projected Score: SAC: 22 - BALL: 19 (41)
SAC Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
SAC Travel: 1913 miles, 3 hrs behind

Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (24 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 2.6 - 9.4 (#111)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 1) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 8)

Matchup
Schedules
SAC Players
BALL Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan	+8	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State	-6	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Sacramento State at Fresno State	+20	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Sacramento State vs North Dakota State	+14.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Sacramento State vs Massachusetts	-14.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10	Sacramento State at Bowling Green	+8	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Sacramento State vs Ohio	+3	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Sacramento State at Ball State	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Fri 10/30	Sacramento State vs Kent State	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/4	Sacramento State vs Toledo	+9	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/11	Sacramento State at Central Michigan	+11	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28	Sacramento State at Hawai'i	+16.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule

Ball State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Ball State at Ohio State	+39	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Ball State vs Stony Brook	-0	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Ball State at Liberty	+21.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Ball State at Kent State	+7.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Ball State vs Toledo	+15	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Ball State at Northwestern	+28	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Ball State at Bowling Green	+14.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Ball State vs Sacramento State	+3.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Wed 11/4	Ball State at Massachusetts	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/11	Ball State vs Buffalo	+9.5	—	—	—	—
Tue 11/17	Ball State at Ohio	+14	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Ball State vs Central Michigan	+12.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 1, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 3, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%	17	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	20	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL	#134 (-)	33% (136)	15.8	34% (133)	2.52 (130)	134	31% (133)	138	2.71 (132)	#79 (.18)	44% (106)	29.8	47% (112)	44% (97)	3.57 (59)	38.8	1.3	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BALL		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Offense	1	17	17	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BALL Defense	12	29.8	21.6	44.5%	3.57	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	52%	46%	47%	44%	14%	.18

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Defense	1	20	20	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BALL Offense	12	15.8	24.4	32.7%	2.71	1.3	15	272	134	138	3.5	55%	42%	34%	31%	21%	-

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sacramento State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Ball State	12	29:44	14.7	34%	53%	4.7	38.8	1.3	1.1	4.6	1.8	1	27.7

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
BALL Defense	12	52% (99)	47% (112)	-	-	-	-	.16 (98)	2.97 (83)	63% (17)	9% (99)	1.03 (100)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
BALL Offense	12	55% (28)	34% (133)	37.8	133.7	3.5	11 (88)	.03 (111)	2.52 (130)	58% (133)	16% (136)	1.09 (23)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BALL Defense	12	46% (39)	44% (97)	-	-	-	-	-	-	9 (100)	.3 (93)	1.6 (72)	30% (101)	32% (101)	.33 (89)	5% (90)	2 (64)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BALL Offense	12	42% (112)	31% (133)	13	23.1	138	6	10.6	11 (114)	8 (20)	-.03 (136)	1.6 (64)	36% (132)	22% (133)	.06 (130)	5% (42)	1.9 (89)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -11.82 #119
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: 8.69 #118
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 20.51 #114
2026 Talent Rating: 437.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #83
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -22.7 #130
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.1 #127
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.9 #130

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: -11.82 Ball State: -20.93

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: -22.7 Ball State: -25.2

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -20.93 #137
Ball State's Offense Rating: 5.92 #132
Ball State's Defense Rating: 27.58 #136
2026 Talent Rating: 462.00 #109
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #104
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 2.6 - 9.4
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -25.2 #134
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 12.2 #136
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 36.7 #128

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 872.28
Average FBS Talent: 677.28

Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Sacramento State 22
Ball State 19

Projected Total Points: 41

Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 24.4
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 21.6

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Ball State	0	0	0 Overs
Sacramento State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#119) SAC at (#137) BALL

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SAC	BALL
Game ControlGC	#12	#135
Momentum ControlMC	NR	#74
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#119	#137
SP+SP+	#130	#134
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#119	#109
Blue ChipsBC%	#83	#104

Sacramento State Notes(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report

Ball State Notes(3/4) Vibes: If this team wins 2 games I'll be shocked
(3/4) QB Luster (Tx St) taken 6 snaps, most exp'd QB
(3/4) RB Horton has some exp, rough unit on paper
(3/4) WR 2 exp'd starters (meh), 4 portal adds
(3/4) OL looks OK, 4 very exp'd starters, tons of bodies
(3/4) Def 13 portals need to help, esp 4 on a rough DL
(3/4) This is the worst Def on paper I've seen this year
Ball State Injury Report

Sacramento State on Offense


CategoryCat	SAC Off	BALL Def
Game ControlGC	#16	#133
Momentum ControlMC	NR	#38
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	#106
ExplosiveExp	NR	#70
PPAPPA	NR	#79
PowerPwr	#118	#136
SP+SP+	#127	#128
Pts POPPO	NR	#59
HavocHav	NR	#105

Sacramento State Run Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	BALL Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#112
Run ExplRExp	NR	#100
PPAExp	NR	#98
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#83
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#41
TackleTak	-	NR

Sacramento State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	BALL Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#97
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#72
PPAExp	NR	#93
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	#99
DB HavocDB	NR	#90

Ball State on Offense

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	SAC Def
Game ControlGC	#135	#12
Momentum ControlMC	#127	NR
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#136	NR
ExplosiveExp	#38	NR
PPAPPA	#134	NR
PowerPwr	#132	#114
SP+SP+	#136	#130
Pts POPPO	#132	NR
HavocHav	#135	NR

Ball State Run Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	SAC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#133	NR
Run ExplRExp	#23	NR
PPAExp	#111	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#130	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#123	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Ball State Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat	BALL Off	SAC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#133	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#64	NR
PPAExp	#136	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#136	NR
DB HavocDB	#42	NR

Program Comparison
BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Scheumann Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7
Savion Red	1	1	100%	28	0	0	28.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davion Godley (Tr)	94	512	4	5.4	52
Sam Adams II	36	181	3	5.0	34
Savion Red	12	58	0	4.8	13
Cincere Rhaney (Tr)	5	19	0	3.8	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Williams	11	170	1	15.5	26
Sam Adams II	9	134	2	14.9	33
Matthew Coleman (Tr)	20	131	1	6.6	13
Jace Wilson	3	56	0	18.7	45

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0

BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)	1	3	33%	14	0	0	4.7

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
TJ Horton	60	180	0	3.0	13
Jalen Bonds	27	77	1	2.9	15
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)	19	75	0	3.9	9
Elijah Jackson	8	17	0	2.1	7

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
CJ Nelson (Tr)	22	393	3	17.9	75
Donovan Hamilton	20	244	0	12.2	47
Jabari Smith	15	166	3	11.1	37
TJ Horton	15	71	1	4.7	19

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Willizhuan Yates	32	0	0	6
Tobi Adewoyin	14	0	0	0
Ameir Glenn	13	3	1	0
Deondre Shepherd	13	1	0	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)	4	2	1	2	1
Ameir Glenn	13	3	1	0	0
Jared Badie (Tr)	8	2	1	4	0
Ben Marsh	7	2	1	0	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Willizhuan Yates	32	0	0	0	6
Maverick Gracio (Tr)	4	2	1	2	1
Ameir Glenn	13	3	1	0	0