Sat, Sep 26 2026
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Dix Stadium
Kent, OH
·
Turf
·
25,000 cap
Ball State✈ 224 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Kent State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Kent State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Kent State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Kent State wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Kent State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Ball State 2026 Schedule
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Ball State at Ohio State | +39 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Ball State vs Stony Brook | -0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Ball State at Liberty | +21.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Ball State at Kent State | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Ball State vs Toledo | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Ball State at Northwestern | +28 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Ball State at Bowling Green | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Ball State vs Sacramento State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Wed 11/4 | Ball State at Massachusetts | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/11 | Ball State vs Buffalo | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Ball State at Ohio | +14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Ball State vs Central Michigan | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
Kent State 2026 Schedule
Kent State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Kent State at South Carolina | +28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Kent State vs Wofford | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Kent State at Ohio State | +37 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Kent State vs Ball State | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Kent State vs Ohio | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Kent State at South Florida | +20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Kent State vs Akron | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/30 | Kent State at Sacramento State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/10 | Kent State at Bowling Green | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/24 | Kent State at Eastern Michigan | +9 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Kent State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +0.55
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +9.6
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Ball State
Mike Uremovich #121
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Mike Uremovich
Yr 2
#138
DC
Jeff Knowles
Yr 3
#138
Kent State
Mark Carney #77
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Clay Patterson
Yr 1
#67
DC
Cherokee Valeria
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓