Sacramento State at Bowling Green - 2026 Matchup Preview

Sacramento State Hornets at Bowling Green Falcons

Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Doyt Perry Stadium - Bowling Green, OH (Mid-American)

Hornets (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Alonzo Carter (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 17 - 20 (17 - 20 on Road)
Record Prediction: 7.1 - 4.9 (#50)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 2) (Bad: 9)

SAC coming off BYE
BGSU is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: Sacramento State -3.5 (SP+ BGSU -13)
Projected Score: SAC: 21 - BGSU: 18 (39)
SAC Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
SAC Travel: 1995 miles, 3 hrs behind

Falcons (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Eddie George (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 21 - 24 (17 - 20 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.6 - 6.4 (#81)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 3) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 7)

Matchup
Schedules
SAC Players
BGSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Sacramento State's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 8/29	Sacramento State at Eastern Michigan	-4	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/5	Sacramento State vs Mississippi Valley State	-18.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Sacramento State at Fresno State	+9.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Sacramento State vs North Dakota State	+2.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Sacramento State vs Massachusetts	-29	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10	Sacramento State at Bowling Green	-3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Sacramento State vs Ohio	-4.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Sacramento State at Ball State	-15	—	—	—	—
Fri 10/30	Sacramento State vs Kent State	-15.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/4	Sacramento State vs Toledo	+6.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/11	Sacramento State at Central Michigan	+0.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/28	Sacramento State at Hawai'i	+7	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 2, Bad 4, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Sacramento State's Schedule

Bowling Green's 2026 Schedule

Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/5	Bowling Green vs Tarleton State	-12.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/12	Bowling Green at Nebraska	+19	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/19	Bowling Green at Iowa State	+20.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 9/26	Bowling Green vs South Florida	+15.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/3	Bowling Green at Miami (OH)	+12.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/10	Bowling Green vs Sacramento State	+3.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/17	Bowling Green vs Ball State	-13.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/24	Bowling Green at Buffalo	+4.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 10/31	Bowling Green at Western Michigan	+10.5	—	—	—	—
— Bye Week —
Tue 11/10	Bowling Green vs Kent State	-9.5	—	—	—	—
Wed 11/18	Bowling Green at Toledo	+17.5	—	—	—	—
Sat 11/28	Bowling Green vs Massachusetts	-23.5	—	—	—	—

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 3, Avg 1, Bad 2, Poor 5
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Bowling Green's Schedule

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%	17	0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%	20	0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU	#128 (.02)	36% (128)	20.5	37% (125)	2.88 (78)	156	35% (124)	151	3.19 (118)	#61 (.15)	41% (56)	24.3	39% (40)	42% (68)	3.44 (48)	61	1.2	1.3

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
SAC		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
BGSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Offense	1	17	17	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BGSU Defense	12	24.3	19.5	40.6%	3.44	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	53%	46%	39%	42%	19%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
SAC Defense	1	20	20	0%	0	0	-	-	-	-	-	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
BGSU Offense	12	20.5	17	35.6%	3.19	1.2	17	307	156	151	4	58%	40%	37%	35%	16%	.02

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Sacramento State	1	0:00	0	NAN%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0	100
Bowling Green	12	31:18	16.6	37%	42%	6.7	61	1.2	1.3	6.2	1.8	1	31

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%	0
BGSU Defense	12	53% (105)	39% (40)	-	-	-	-	.06 (48)	2.74 (40)	59% (9)	13% (8)	1.06 (116)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-		0	0%	0%	0
BGSU Offense	12	58% (15)	37% (125)	39.3	155.5	4	13 (119)	.03 (112)	2.88 (78)	58% (133)	10% (95)	0.95 (76)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Offense	1	0%	0%	0	0	0	0	0	0	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BGSU Defense	12	46% (34)	42% (68)	-	-	-	-	-	-	6 (75)	.28 (82)	1.6 (95)	33% (49)	31% (86)	.32 (79)	7% (43)	2.1 (85)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
SAC Defense	1	0%	0%	-	-	-	-	-	-	0		0	0%	0%		0%	0
BGSU Offense	12	40% (122)	35% (124)	13.8	23.8	151.3	6.4	10.9	13 (106)	12 (119)	.07 (129)	1.6 (47)	34% (110)	25% (121)	.19 (114)	6% (65)	2.1 (50)

Sacramento State's Power Ratings
Sacramento State's Power Rating: -9.86 #114
Sacramento State's Offense Rating: 9.69 #113
Sacramento State's Defense Rating: 19.55 #111
2026 Talent Rating: 437.00 #119
Blue Chip Ratio: 1% #101
Sacramento State's 2026 Expected Record: 7.1 - 4.9
Sacramento State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Offense SP+ Rating: NR
Sacramento State's Defense SP+ Rating: NR

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Power Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: -9.86 Bowling Green: -8.67

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Sacramento State: Bowling Green: -12.6

Bowling Green's Power Ratings
Bowling Green's Power Rating: -8.67 #113
Bowling Green's Offense Rating: 10.94 #107
Bowling Green's Defense Rating: 20.68 #117
2026 Talent Rating: 487.00 #102
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 #104
Bowling Green's 2026 Expected Record: 5.6 - 6.4
Bowling Green's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.6 #114
Bowling Green's Offense SP+ Rating: 15.4 #128
Bowling Green's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #83

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 467.85
Average Power Five Talent: 871.03
Average FBS Talent: 676.61

Sacramento State Scoring
Offense: 17 PPG
Offense on Road: 17
Defense: 20 PPG
Defense on Road: 20

Sacramento State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Sacramento State 21
Bowling Green 18

Projected Total Points: 39

Bowling Green Scoring
Offense: 20.5 PPG
Offense at Home: 17
Defense: 24.3 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.5

Bowling Green's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Bowling Green	0	0	0 Overs
Sacramento State	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#114) SAC at (#113) BGSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	SAC	BGSU
Game ControlGC	#12	#113
Momentum ControlMC	NR	#83
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#114	#113
SP+SP+	NR	#114
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#119	#102
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#104

Sacramento State Notes(2/15) 2025: (7-5), '24: (3-9), '23: (8-5), '22: (12-1)
(2/15) Lost top 2 QB, 3 RB, 1 WR from '25 via portal
(2/15) HC Carter was RB coach @ Arizona past 2 years
Sacramento State Injury Report

Bowling Green Notes(3/4) Vibes: Hopeful, George popular, can bowl TY
(3/4) QB Novosad a huge get, big talent for MAC QB
(3/4) RB duo of Dendy & Baldwin (FCS) looks decent
(3/4) WR really need FCS portals or depth to hit
(3/4) OL looks rough, only 2 with PT exp. Some depth
(3/4) DL has some exp, has size. DE's can rush some
(3/4) DBs look strong, even better if FCS portals hit
Bowling Green Injury Report

Sacramento State on Offense


CategoryCat	SAC Off	BGSU Def
Game ControlGC	#16	#111
Momentum ControlMC	NR	#72
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	#56
ExplosiveExp	NR	#105
PPAPPA	NR	#61
PowerPwr	#113	#117
SP+SP+	NR	#83
Pts POPPO	NR	#48
HavocHav	NR	#12

Sacramento State Run Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	BGSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	#40
Run ExplRExp	NR	#116
PPAExp	NR	#48
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	#40
Stuff RateStuff	NR	#8
TackleTak	-	NR

Sacramento State Pass Game


CategoryCat	SAC Off	BGSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	#68
Pass ExplPExl	NR	#95
PPAExp	NR	#82
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	#8
DB HavocDB	NR	#43

Bowling Green on Offense

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	SAC Def
Game ControlGC	#120	#12
Momentum ControlMC	#114	NR
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#128	NR
ExplosiveExp	#82	NR
PPAPPA	#128	NR
PowerPwr	#107	#111
SP+SP+	#128	NR
Pts POPPO	#118	NR
HavocHav	#80	NR

Bowling Green Run Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	SAC Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#125	NR
Run ExplRExp	#76	NR
PPAExp	#112	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#78	NR
Stuff RateStuff	#66	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Bowling Green Pass Game

Run heavy Offense 58%, Pass: 40%
CategoryCat	BGSU Off	SAC Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#124	NR
Pass ExplPExl	#47	NR
PPAExp	#129	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#95	NR
DB HavocDB	#65	NR

Program Comparison
BGSU 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg G5
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg G5

SAC 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Doyt Perry Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

SAC's OC Eric Kiesau (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Carson Conklin (Tr)	47	96	49%	354	1	2	3.7
Savion Red	1	1	100%	28	0	0	28.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Davion Godley (Tr)	94	512	4	5.4	52
Sam Adams II	36	181	3	5.0	34
Savion Red	12	58	0	4.8	13
Cincere Rhaney (Tr)	5	19	0	3.8	8

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Jordan Williams	11	170	1	15.5	26
Sam Adams II	9	134	2	14.9	33
Matthew Coleman (Tr)	20	131	1	6.6	13
Jace Wilson	3	56	0	18.7	45

View Sacramento State's Full Roster

SAC's DC Adam Clark (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	0	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0	0
Deven Wright	5	1	0

Pass D	Tack	PD
Dionte Thornton (Tr)	10	2
Tim Thomas (Tr)	6	0
Boogsie Silvera (Tr)	5	0

BGSU's OC Greg Nosal (been OC for 3 years)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Hunter Najm	33	66	50%	473	5	4	7.2
Austin Novosad (Tr)	1	2	50%	40	0	0	20.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Ke'Marion Baldwin (Tr)	159	778	6	4.9	89
Austyn Dendy	108	493	5	4.6	24
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)	11	136	1	12.4	42
Nakai Amachree	7	22	0	3.1	11

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Isaiah Dawson (Tr)	42	575	4	13.7	67
Nicholas Sowell	21	247	1	11.8	26
Brennan Ridley	4	110	1	27.5	87
Austyn Dendy	4	64	1	16.0	27

View Bowling Green's Full Roster

BGSU's DC Brandon Fisher (in his first season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PD
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	0	5
Armahn Hale (Tr)	44	4	0	1
Preston EstoEsta	29	1	0	1
Dorian Pringle	27	6	1	0

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS
Myles Bradley	20	6	5	7
Eriq George	26	5	4	2
Andrew Hines III	22	4	1	1
Dorian Pringle	27	6	1	0

Pass D	Tack	TFL	PD
JoJo Johnson	22	0	13
Kal-El Pascal	80	4	5
Nick Sawyer (Tr)	3	0	2