Tue, Nov 10 2026
·
Week 11
·
🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
Kent State✈ 121 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Kent State,
while Game Control favors Bowling Green.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Kent State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Bowling Green wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Kent State 2026 Schedule
Kent State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Kent State at South Carolina | +28.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Kent State vs Wofford | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Kent State at Ohio State | +37 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Kent State vs Ball State | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Kent State vs Ohio | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Kent State at Western Michigan | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Kent State at South Florida | +20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Kent State vs Akron | +0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/30 | Kent State at Sacramento State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/10 | Kent State at Bowling Green | +9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/17 | Kent State vs Miami (OH) | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Tue 11/24 | Kent State at Eastern Michigan | +9 | — | — | — | — |
Bowling Green 2026 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Bowling Green vs Tarleton State | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Bowling Green at Nebraska | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Bowling Green at Iowa State | +16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Bowling Green vs South Florida | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) | +13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Bowling Green vs Sacramento State | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Bowling Green vs Ball State | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Bowling Green at Western Michigan | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/10 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Bowling Green vs Massachusetts | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Kent State Edge
Kent State +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Bowling Green Edge
Bowling Green +5.7
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Kent State
Mark Carney #77
5–7 (42%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Clay Patterson
Yr 1
#67
DC
Cherokee Valeria
Yr 1
#68
Bowling Green
Eddie George #111
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 3
#127
DC
Brandon Fisher
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓