Sat, Sep 26 2026
·
Week 4
·
🏟 Doyt Perry Stadium
Bowling Green, OH
·
Turf
·
24,000 cap
South Florida✈ 928 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
South Florida
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
South Florida entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
South Florida wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
South Florida wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → South Florida
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
South Florida 2026 Schedule
South Florida's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | South Florida vs Florida International | -11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | South Florida at Army | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | South Florida vs Delaware State | -23 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | South Florida at Bowling Green | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | South Florida vs Temple | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Thu 10/8 | South Florida at UTSA | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | South Florida vs Kent State | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | South Florida vs UAB | -19 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/6 | South Florida at East Carolina | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Thu 11/12 | South Florida vs Memphis | -1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | South Florida at Florida Atlantic | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | South Florida vs Tulane | -5 | — | — | — | — |
Bowling Green 2026 Schedule
Bowling Green's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Bowling Green vs Tarleton State | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Bowling Green at Nebraska | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Bowling Green at Iowa State | +16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Bowling Green vs South Florida | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Bowling Green at Miami (OH) | +13 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Bowling Green vs Sacramento State | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Bowling Green vs Ball State | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Bowling Green at Buffalo | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Bowling Green at Western Michigan | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Tue 11/10 | Bowling Green vs Kent State | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Wed 11/18 | Bowling Green at Toledo | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Bowling Green vs Massachusetts | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ South Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +1.36
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
South Florida Edge
South Florida +22.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
South Florida
Brian Hartline #77
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Tim Beck*
Yr 1
#132
DC
Josh Aldridge
Yr 1
#29
Bowling Green
Eddie George #111
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Greg Nosal
Yr 3
#127
DC
Brandon Fisher
Yr 1
#68
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓