Middle Tennessee at Kansas - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

Kansas logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Memorial Stadium - Lawrence, KS

 
Blue Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (6 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0.1 - 0.9 (#92)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 0) (Good: 0) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 0)
KU coming off BYE
Our Line: Kansas -23.5  (SP+ KU -20)
Projected Score: MTSU: 15 - KU: 39 (54)
KU Win prob: 96% | Cover: 54%
MTSU Travel: 532 miles
Jayhawks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (27 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5.9 - 6.1 (#61)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 2) (Good: 3) (Avg: 3) (Bad: 3)
 
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 Middle Tennessee at Kansas+23.5

Total: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 1, Bad 0, Poor 0
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule
Kansas's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Fri 9/4 Kansas vs Long Island University-27.5
Sat 9/12 Kansas vs Missouri+12.5
Sat 9/19 Kansas at Arizona State+5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3 Kansas vs Middle Tennessee-23.5
Sat 10/10 Kansas at Utah+16.5
Sat 10/17 Kansas at Kansas State+6.5
Sat 10/24 Kansas vs Baylor-2
Sat 10/31 Kansas at TCU+8
Sat 11/7 Kansas vs UCF-2
Sat 11/14 Kansas at West Virginia-1
Sat 11/21 Kansas vs BYU+11
Sat 11/28 Kansas at Oklahoma State-4

Total: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 2, Good: 3, Avg 3, Bad 2, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Kansas's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU#78 (.16)43% (59)22.445% (56)2.92 (71)10642% (62)2653.2 (117)#108 (.22)45% (108)30.941% (59)48% (131)4.03 (105)67.711.3
KU#26 (.25)48% (13)28.151% (6)3.53 (3)17046% (31)2203.94 (47)#121 (.25)42% (69)26.841% (62)42% (71)4.24 (120)39.81.10.8
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
MTSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
KU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Offense1222.420.843%3.21203711062654.137%62%45%42%18%.16
KU Defense1226.822.141.7%4.240.8 - - - - - 51%48%41%42%18%.25
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
MTSU Defense1230.929.344.6%4.031.3 - - - - - 50%48%41%48%16%.22
KU Offense1228.132.648.4%3.941.1213901702204.851%47%51%46%14%.25

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee1228:4519.637%27%7.367.711.35.21.8028.2
Kansas1230:4020.639%57%539.81.10.86.32129.1
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense1237% (134)45% (56)26.2106.14.111 (132).08 (88)2.92 (71)65% (107)9% (61)0.88 (107)
KU Defense1251% (78)41% (62) - - - - .13 (87)2.84 (57)77% (110)11% (25)1.1 (125)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense1250% (63)41% (59) - - - - .04 (35)2.62 (18)66% (29)10% (70)0.83 (9)
KU Offense1251% (53)51% (6)35.5169.84.817 (99).22 (19)3.53 (3)84% (3)9% (44)0.87 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense1262% (2)42% (62)24.841.6264.96.410.723 (103)7 (34).21 (88)1.4 (116)32% (78)29% (81).3 (70)9% (133)1.9 (101)
KU Defense1248% (67)42% (71) - - - - - - 4 (75).39 (122)1.7 (126)34% (34)33% (103).43 (124)7% (43)2.2 (125)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense1248% (64)48% (131) - - - - - - 10 (100).41 (126)1.6 (100)29% (107)32% (99).33 (90)6% (57)1.9 (36)
KU Offense1247% (87)46% (31)17.628.82207.712.523 (8)8 (7).32 (45)1.5 (76)28% (20)32% (41).27 (81)6% (55)1.8 (120)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -18.31  #135
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 3.48  #125
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 26.79  #136
2026 Talent Rating: 414.00  #128
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Expected Record: 0.1 - 0.9
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0  #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4  #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0  #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 485.09
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -18.31   Kansas: 6.255

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.0   Kansas: 4.1




Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 6.255  #65
Kansas's Offense Rating: 15.26  #53
Kansas's Defense Rating: 16.85  #75
2026 Talent Rating: 790.00  #63
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #57
Kansas's 2026 Expected Record: 5.9 - 6.1
Kansas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1  #58
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9  #48
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5  #76

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 824
Average Power Five Talent: 910.69
Average FBS Talent: 728.9


Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Kansas 39
Middle Tennessee 15

Projected Total Points: 54
Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Kansas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Kansas000 Overs
Middle Tennessee000 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0
Road Teams0 - 00 - 00 - 00 - 0

(#135) MTSU at (#65) KU
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatMTSUKU
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #135 #65
SP+SP+ #127 #58
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #128 #63
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #57
Kansas Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Uneasy, two 5-7 yrs, OC back gives hope
(2/16) AHC Andy Kotelnicki is the real OC, play-caller
(2/9) QB Cole Ballard was #2 LY, has mobility
(2/9) RB added 3 portals incl D Edwards (KSU). Depth
(2/9) WR 3 portals, McMillan (Buf) leads decent unit
(2/9) OL 2 back + 2 P5 portal starters. Decent unit
(2/9) DL has good exp/prod, LBs ? beyond Al-Amin
(2/9) CBs have decent starting duo, S not great
Kansas Injury Report
Middle Tennessee on Offense
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffKU Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #59 #69
ExplosiveExp #87 #131
PPAPPA #78 #121
PowerPwr #125 #75
SP+SP+ #110 #76
Pts POPPO #117 #120
HavocHav #115 #26
Middle Tennessee Run Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffKU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #56 #62
Run ExplRExp #107 #125
PPAExp #88 #87
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #71 #57
Stuff RateStuff #117 #32
TackleTak - NR
Middle Tennessee Pass Game
Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat
MTSU OffKU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #62 #71
Pass ExplPExl #116 #126
PPAExp #88 #122
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #61 #25
DB HavocDB #133 #43
Kansas on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKU OffMTSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #13 #108
ExplosiveExp #113 #82
PPAPPA #26 #108
PowerPwr #53 #136
SP+SP+ #48 #128
Pts POPPO #47 #105
HavocHav #52 #67
Kansas Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
KU OffMTSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #6 #59
Run ExplRExp #111 #9
PPAExp #19 #35
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #3 #18
Stuff RateStuff #8 #15
TackleTak - NR
Kansas Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatKU OffMTSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #31 #131
Pass ExplPExl #76 #100
PPAExp #45 #126
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #44 #70
DB HavocDB #55 #57
Program Comparison
KU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
MTSU's OC Anthony Scelfo (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Roman Gagliano7813558%1011707.5
Stanley Anderson-Lofton11100%110011.0
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
DJ Taylor2619927.764
Roman Gagliano3816024.264
Antonio Martin1912916.837
Cam'Ron Lacy42105.319
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Cam'Ron Lacy38529313.968
AJ Jones2821657.727
Landon Collins16187111.748
DJ Taylor75417.719

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Korey Smith381002
Kalen Woods361000
Jackson Lowe362004
Reggie Johnson3510472
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Reggie Johnson3510472
Zeion Simpson-Smith193330
Ashton Taylor (Tr)41131
Christofer Noble221100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Jackson Lowe362004
Korey Smith381002
Reggie Johnson3510472

KU's OC Andy Kotelnicki (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Chase Jenkins (Tr)11917269%1025926.0
Cole Ballard102246%108114.9
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Yasin Willis (Tr)12955344.341
Chase Jenkins (Tr)15153153.534
Jalen Dupree (Tr)10250825.031
Dylan Edwards (Tr)3420526.075
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Nik McMillan (Tr)61975316.055
Nahzae Cox (Tr)40473511.843
Cam Pickett45449310.038
Carter Moses (Tr)26321212.333

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC D.K. McDonald (in his second season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Trey Lathan867265
Corey Gordon (Tr)533002
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)516342
Eamon Smalls (Tr)504110
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leroy Harris III317518
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)516342
Jalen Todd442214
Blake Herold435243
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Leroy Harris III317518
Trey Lathan867265
Jalen Todd442214