Middle Tennessee at Kansas - 2026 Matchup Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders at Kansas Jayhawks

Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
Memorial Stadium - Lawrence, KS

Blue Raiders (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Derek Mason (6 - 17)
Avg Score : 22 - 31 (21 - 29 on Road)
Record Prediction: 3 - 9 (#115)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

KU coming off BYE
Our Line: Kansas -21.5 (SP+ KU -20)
Projected Score: MTSU: 16 - KU: 38 (54)
KU Win prob: 95% | Cover: 49%
MTSU Travel: 532 miles

Jayhawks (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Lance Leipold (27 - 35)
Avg Score : 28 - 27 (33 - 22 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#84)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
MTSU Players
KU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Middle Tennessee's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3	Middle Tennessee at Kansas	+21.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Middle Tennessee's Schedule

Kansas's 2026 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Fri 9/4	Kansas vs Long Island University	-25
Sat 9/12	Kansas vs Missouri	+13.5
Sat 9/19	Kansas at Arizona State	+5
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/3	Kansas vs Middle Tennessee	-21.5
Sat 10/10	Kansas at Utah	+17.5
Sat 10/17	Kansas at Kansas State	+7.5
Sat 10/24	Kansas vs Baylor	-2
Sat 10/31	Kansas at TCU	+9
Sat 11/7	Kansas vs UCF	-6
Sat 11/14	Kansas at West Virginia	-1.5
Sat 11/21	Kansas vs BYU	+11.5
Sat 11/28	Kansas at Oklahoma State	-7

Important Stats (2025)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU	#78 (.16)	43% (59)	22.4	45% (56)	2.92 (71)	106	42% (62)	265	3.2 (117)	#108 (.22)	45% (108)	30.9	41% (59)	48% (131)	4.03 (105)	67.7	1	1.3
KU	#26 (.25)	48% (13)	28.1	51% (6)	3.53 (3)	170	46% (31)	220	3.94 (47)	#121 (.25)	42% (69)	26.8	41% (62)	42% (71)	4.24 (120)	39.8	1.1	0.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
MTSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
KU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2025

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Offense	12	22.4	20.8	43%	3.2	1	20	371	106	265	4.1	37%	62%	45%	42%	18%	.16
KU Defense	12	26.8	22.1	41.7%	4.24	0.8	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	41%	42%	18%	.25

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
MTSU Defense	12	30.9	29.3	44.6%	4.03	1.3	-	-	-	-	-	50%	48%	41%	48%	16%	.22
KU Offense	12	28.1	32.6	48.4%	3.94	1.1	21	390	170	220	4.8	51%	47%	51%	46%	14%	.25

Additional Stats 2025

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Middle Tennessee	12	28:45	19.6	37%	27%	7.3	67.7	1	1.3	5.2	1.8	0	28.2
Kansas	12	30:40	20.6	39%	57%	5	39.8	1.1	0.8	6.3	2	1	29.1

Run Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Offense	12	37% (134)	45% (56)	26.2	106.1	4.1	11 (132)	.08 (88)	2.92 (71)	65% (107)	9% (61)	0.88 (107)
KU Defense	12	51% (78)	41% (62)	-	-	-	-	.13 (87)	2.84 (57)	77% (110)	11% (25)	1.1 (125)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
MTSU Defense	12	50% (63)	41% (59)	-	-	-	-	.04 (35)	2.62 (18)	66% (29)	10% (70)	0.83 (9)
KU Offense	12	51% (53)	51% (6)	35.5	169.8	4.8	17 (99)	.22 (19)	3.53 (3)	84% (3)	9% (44)	0.87 (111)

Pass Game Stats (2026)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Offense	12	62% (2)	42% (62)	24.8	41.6	264.9	6.4	10.7	23 (103)	7 (34)	.21 (88)	1.4 (116)	32% (78)	29% (81)	.3 (70)	9% (133)	1.9 (101)
KU Defense	12	48% (67)	42% (71)	-	-	-	-	-	-	4 (75)	.39 (122)	1.7 (126)	34% (34)	33% (103)	.43 (124)	7% (43)	2.2 (125)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
MTSU Defense	12	48% (64)	48% (131)	-	-	-	-	-	-	10 (100)	.41 (126)	1.6 (100)	29% (107)	32% (99)	.33 (90)	6% (57)	1.9 (36)
KU Offense	12	47% (87)	46% (31)	17.6	28.8	220	7.7	12.5	23 (8)	8 (7)	.32 (45)	1.5 (76)	28% (20)	32% (41)	.27 (81)	6% (55)	1.8 (120)

Middle Tennessee's Power Ratings
Middle Tennessee's Power Rating: -19.42 #131
Middle Tennessee's Offense Rating: 2.34 #118
Middle Tennessee's Defense Rating: 26.76 #127
2026 Talent Rating: 418.00 #126
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% #101
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Expected Record: 3.0 - 9.0
Middle Tennessee's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.0 #127
Middle Tennessee's Offense SP+ Rating: 20.4 #110
Middle Tennessee's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.0 #128

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 445.2
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Power Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -19.42 Kansas: 3.96

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Middle Tennessee: -16.0 Kansas: 4.1

Kansas's Power Ratings
Kansas's Power Rating: 3.96 #63
Kansas's Offense Rating: 13.00 #53
Kansas's Defense Rating: 19.18 #79
2026 Talent Rating: 728.00 #69
Blue Chip Ratio: 2 #79
Kansas's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Kansas's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 4.1 #58
Kansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.9 #48
Kansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.5 #76

Average Talent
Average Big 12 Talent Rating is 796.63
Average Power Five Talent: 883.28
Average FBS Talent: 705.75

Middle Tennessee Scoring
Offense: 22.4 PPG
Offense on Road: 20.8
Defense: 30.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 29.3

Middle Tennessee's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0

Projected Score
Kansas 38
Middle Tennessee 16

Projected Total Points: 54

Kansas Scoring
Offense: 28.1 PPG
Offense at Home: 32.6
Defense: 26.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 22.1

Kansas's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Kansas	0	0	0 Overs
Middle Tennessee	0	0	0 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0
Road Teams	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0	0 - 0

(#131) MTSU at (#63) KU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	MTSU	KU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	#131	#63
SP+SP+	#127	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#126	#69
Blue ChipsBC%	#101	#79

Middle Tennessee Injury Report

Kansas Injury Report

Middle Tennessee on Offense

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	KU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#59	#69
ExplosiveExp	#87	#131
PPAPPA	#78	#121
PowerPwr	#118	#79
SP+SP+	#110	#76
Pts POPPO	#117	#120
HavocHav	#115	#26

Middle Tennessee Run Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	KU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#56	#62
Run ExplRExp	#107	#125
PPAExp	#88	#87
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#71	#57
Stuff RateStuff	#117	#32
TackleTak	-	NR

Middle Tennessee Pass Game

Very Pass heavy Offense 62%, Run: 37%
CategoryCat	MTSU Off	KU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#62	#71
Pass ExplPExl	#116	#126
PPAExp	#88	#122
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#61	#25
DB HavocDB	#133	#43

Kansas on Offense

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	MTSU Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	#13	#108
ExplosiveExp	#113	#82
PPAPPA	#26	#108
PowerPwr	#53	#127
SP+SP+	#48	#128
Pts POPPO	#47	#105
HavocHav	#52	#67

Kansas Run Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	MTSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	#6	#59
Run ExplRExp	#111	#9
PPAExp	#19	#35
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	#3	#18
Stuff RateStuff	#8	#15
TackleTak	-	NR

Kansas Pass Game

Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat	KU Off	MTSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	#31	#131
Pass ExplPExl	#76	#100
PPAExp	#45	#126
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	#44	#70
DB HavocDB	#55	#57

Program Comparison
KU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Below Avg P4
'26 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

MTSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

No Matchups Past 4 Years

MTSU's OC Anthony Scelfo (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Roman Gagliano	78	135	58%	1011	7	0	7.5
Stanley Anderson-Lofton	1	1	100%	11	0	0	11.0

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
DJ Taylor	26	199	2	7.7	64
Roman Gagliano	38	160	2	4.2	64
Antonio Martin	19	129	1	6.8	37
Cam'Ron Lacy	4	21	0	5.3	19

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Cam'Ron Lacy	38	529	3	13.9	68
AJ Jones	28	216	5	7.7	27
Landon Collins	16	187	1	11.7	48
DJ Taylor	7	54	1	7.7	19

View Middle Tennessee's Full Roster

MTSU's DC Brian Stewart (been DC for 3 years)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2
Kalen Woods	36	1	0	0	0
Jackson Lowe	36	2	0	0	4
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2
Zeion Simpson-Smith	19	3	3	3	0
Christofer Noble	22	1	1	0	0
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jackson Lowe	36	2	0	0	4
Korey Smith	38	1	0	0	2
Reggie Johnson	35	10	4	7	2

KU's OC Jim Zebrowski (in his first season)

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA
Chase Jenkins (Tr)	119	172	69%	1025	9	2	6.0
Cole Ballard	10	22	46%	108	1	1	4.9

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Yasin Willis (Tr)	129	553	4	4.3	41
Chase Jenkins (Tr)	151	531	5	3.5	34
Jalen Dupree (Tr)	102	508	2	5.0	31
Dylan Edwards (Tr)	34	205	2	6.0	75

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG
Nik McMillan (Tr)	61	975	3	16.0	55
Emmanuel Henderson Jr.	45	766	5	17.0	93
Nahzae Cox (Tr)	40	473	5	11.8	43
Cam Pickett	45	449	3	10.0	38

View Kansas's Full Roster

KU's DC D.K. McDonald (in his second season)

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)	51	6	3	4	2
Eamon Smalls (Tr)	50	4	1	1	0
Austin Alexander	46	4	0	0	2
Jalen Todd	44	2	2	1	4

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leroy Harris III	31	7	5	1	8
Jibreel Al-Amin (Tr)	51	6	3	4	2
Jalen Todd	44	2	2	1	4
Blake Herold	43	5	2	4	3

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD
Leroy Harris III	31	7	5	1	8
Jalen Todd	44	2	2	1	4
Roman Pearson (Tr)	27	1	0	0	4