Penn State at Northwestern - 2026 Matchup Preview
Penn State logo Penn State Nittany Lions at Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
L&S Martin Stadium (Temp) - Evanston, IL

 
Nittany Lions (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Matt Campbell (0 - 0)
Avg Score : 31 - 21 (29 - 30 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
PSU is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: Penn State -9  (SP+ PSU -12.5)
Projected Score: PSU: 29 - NW: 20 (48)
PSU Win prob: 74% | Cover: 48%
PSU Travel: 517 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach David Braun (19 - 19)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Penn State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Penn State vs Marshall-23
Sat 9/12 Penn State at Temple-19.5
Sat 9/19 Penn State vs Buffalo-28.5
Sat 9/26 Penn State vs Wisconsin-18.5
Sat 10/3 Penn State at Northwestern-9
Sat 10/10 Penn State vs USC+3.5
Sat 10/17 Penn State at Michigan+3
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Penn State vs Purdue-21
Sat 11/7 Penn State at Washington+6
Sat 11/14 Penn State vs Minnesota-13.5
Sat 11/21 Penn State vs Rutgers-18.5
Sat 11/28 Penn State at Maryland-10.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Penn State's Schedule
Northwestern's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Northwestern vs South Dakota State-27
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Northwestern vs Colorado-14
Sat 9/26 Northwestern at Indiana+28
Sat 10/3 Northwestern vs Penn State+9
Sat 10/10 Northwestern vs Ball State-27.5
Sat 10/17 Northwestern at Michigan State-3
Sat 10/24 Northwestern vs Rutgers-7
Sat 10/31 Northwestern at Oregon+24.5
Sat 11/7 Northwestern vs Iowa+7.5
Sat 11/14 Northwestern at Ohio State+28.5
Sat 11/21 Northwestern at Minnesota+3
Sat 11/28 Northwestern at Illinois+10

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU#32 (.23)46% (26)3147% (33)3.12 (38)17445% (32)1884.32 (25)#50 (.12)41% (62)20.544% (94)38% (36)3.33 (37)37.30.81
NW#83 (.15)43% (57)23.446% (46)2.97 (64)16142% (66)1863.21 (116)#72 (.17)45% (117)19.847% (119)44% (101)3.37 (41)33.81.61.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
PSU0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Offense133128.646.3%4.320.8203621741884.855%43%47%45%14%.23
NW Defense1319.812.445.3%3.371.5 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
PSU Defense1320.530.241.2%3.331 - - - - - 51%48%44%38%16%.12
NW Offense1323.426.843.2%3.211.6203471611864.751%47%46%42%17%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Penn State1329:2919.644%59%4.137.30.816.22.4231.9
Northwestern1332:1819.743%59%4.233.81.61.541.8028.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Offense1355% (29)47% (33)36.5174.44.830 (26).21 (25)3.12 (38)76% (43)9% (47)1 (52)
NW Defense1352% (91)47% (119) - - - - .18 (108)3.16 (113)71% (63)9% (93)0.99 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
PSU Defense1351% (83)44% (94) - - - - .11 (75)2.97 (84)69% (54)11% (34)0.93 (55)
NW Offense1351% (57)46% (46)34.5160.94.716 (99).14 (58)2.97 (64)76% (41)8% (33)0.91 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Offense1343% (111)45% (32)17.426.1187.67.210.816 (86)7 (60).28 (53)1.4 (111)26% (11)31% (57).35 (52)5% (25)2 (69)
NW Defense1346% (38)44% (101) - - - - - - 9 (75).24 (63)1.4 (6)28% (119)34% (120).32 (82)6% (62)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
PSU Defense1348% (63)38% (36) - - - - - - 6 (55).18 (40)1.5 (26)30% (99)27% (28).23 (49)5% (101)1.9 (33)
NW Offense1347% (81)42% (66)17.229.1185.96.410.817 (75)13 (108).21 (85)1.5 (97)30% (46)33% (33).31 (66)9% (130)1.8 (128)

Penn State's Power Ratings
Penn State's Power Rating: 12.03  #24
Penn State's Offense Rating: 16.98  #26
Penn State's Defense Rating: 9.95  #25
2026 Talent Rating: 828.00  #45
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #24
Penn State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Penn State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 18.1  #15
Penn State's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.1  #17
Penn State's Defense SP+ Rating: 18.8  #22

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 12.03   Northwestern: 6.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Penn State: 18.1   Northwestern: 5.8




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 6.145  #59
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.07  #66
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 14.58  #52
2026 Talent Rating: 886.00  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #24
Northwestern's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Northwestern's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.8  #51
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18


Penn State Scoring
Offense: 31 PPG
Offense on Road: 28.6
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense on Road: 30.2

Penn State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Penn State 29
Northwestern 20

Projected Total Points: 48
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202510/11Penn State21Northwestern22Penn State -20.5Northwestern46.5Under
202309/30Northwestern13Penn State41Penn State -27Penn State48.0Over
202210/01Penn State17Northwestern7Penn State -25.5Northwestern50.0Under
201710/07Northwestern7Penn State31Penn State -14.5Penn State51.5Under
201511/07Northwestern23Penn State21Northwestern -2Push41.0Over
201409/27Penn State6Northwestern29Penn State -9Northwestern0
201210/06Penn State39Northwestern28
201110/22Northwestern24Penn State34
201011/06Penn State35Northwestern21
200910/31Northwestern13Penn State34
200609/30Penn State33Northwestern7
200509/24Northwestern29Penn State34
200411/06Penn State7Northwestern14
200311/08Northwestern17Penn State7
200210/19Penn State49Northwestern0
200110/20Northwestern35Penn State38
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern532 Overs
Penn State1123 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams7 - 90 - 50 - 30 - 2
Road Teams9 - 75 - 02 - 03 - 0

(#24) PSU at (#59) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatPSUNW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #24 #59
SP+SP+ #15 #51
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #45 #28
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #24
Penn State Notes
(1/27) Campbell leads Iowa State east in Happy Valley
(1/27) Likely have the easiest schedule in the Big Ten
Penn State Injury Report
Penn State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffNW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #26 #117
ExplosiveExp #100 #12
PPAPPA #32 #72
PowerPwr #26 #52
SP+SP+ #17 #30
Pts POPPO #25 #41
HavocHav #39 #83
Penn State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffNW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #33 #119
Run ExplRExp #52 #85
PPAExp #25 #108
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #38 #113
Stuff RateStuff #35 #118
TackleTak - NR
Penn State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 56%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
PSU OffNW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #32 #101
Pass ExplPExl #111 #6
PPAExp #53 #63
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #47 #93
DB HavocDB #25 #62
Northwestern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffPSU Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #57 #62
ExplosiveExp #108 #18
PPAPPA #83 #50
PowerPwr #66 #25
SP+SP+ #90 #22
Pts POPPO #116 #37
HavocHav #94 #63
Northwestern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffPSU Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #46 #94
Run ExplRExp #92 #55
PPAExp #58 #75
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #64 #84
Stuff RateStuff #48 #77
TackleTak - NR
Northwestern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffPSU Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #36
Pass ExplPExl #97 #26
PPAExp #85 #40
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #34
DB HavocDB #130 #101
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

PSU 5 Year Profile: Consistent CFP Hopefuls
'26 Profile: Remains CFP Hopefuls

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
Previous Matchups
Northwestern beat Penn State last year (22-21)
Penn State beat Northwestern in 2023 (41-13)

  
PSU's OC Taylor Mouser (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Rocco Becht (Tr)20433761%25651697.6
Alex Manske (Tr)4580%28005.6
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Carson Hansen (Tr)18795065.165
James Peoples (Tr)6134435.649
Rocco Becht (Tr)8711181.325
Quinton Martin Jr.2010305.221
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Brett Eskildsen (Tr)30526517.575
Chase Sowell (Tr)32500215.652
Benjamin Brahmer (Tr)37446612.127
Keith Jones31438414.148

View Penn State's Full Roster

PSU's DC D’Anton Lynn (in his first season)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Kooper Ebel (Tr)778153
Marcus Neal7711133
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343
Jamison Patton (Tr)481003
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343
Tony Rojas255221
Yvan Kemajou135231
Kooper Ebel (Tr)778153
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Daryus Dixson242106
Kooper Ebel (Tr)778153
Caleb Bacon (Tr)6810343

NW's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)12820363%13921036.9
Ryan Boe2729%17012.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Komolafe190941115.056
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Joseph Himon II9948614.937
Aidan Chiles (Tr)8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Griffin Wilde71880812.449
Hayden Eligon Ii37521314.138
Ricky Ahumaraeze10200020.035
Drew Wagner2217227.840

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Robert Fitzgerald1066014
Braydon Brus815344
Braden Turner522012
Michael Kilbane428481
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Kilbane428481
Braydon Brus815344
Mason Green11100
Kobie McKinzie (Tr)327140
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Fussell291009
Brenden Deasfernandes (Tr)250008
Robert Fitzgerald1066014