Ball State at Northwestern - 2026 Matchup Preview
Ball State logo Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern WildcatsNorthwestern logo
Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
L&S Martin Stadium (Temp) - Evanston, IL

 
Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NW 2nd straight Home Game
BALL coming off BYE
NW is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -27.5  (SP+ NW -29)
Projected Score: BALL: 8 - NW: 36 (44)
NW Win prob: 97% | Cover: 53%
BALL Travel: 174 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach David Braun (19 - 19)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#1)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Ball State at Ohio State+53.5
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/10 Ball State at Northwestern+27.5

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Northwestern's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5 Northwestern vs South Dakota State-27
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/19 Northwestern vs Colorado-14
Sat 9/26 Northwestern at Indiana+28
Sat 10/3 Northwestern vs Penn State+9
Sat 10/10 Northwestern vs Ball State-27.5
Sat 10/17 Northwestern at Michigan State-3
Sat 10/24 Northwestern vs Rutgers-7
Sat 10/31 Northwestern at Oregon+24.5
Sat 11/7 Northwestern vs Iowa+7.5
Sat 11/14 Northwestern at Ohio State+28.5
Sat 11/21 Northwestern at Minnesota+3
Sat 11/28 Northwestern at Illinois+10

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#134 (-)33% (136)15.834% (133)2.52 (130)13431% (133)1382.71 (132)#79 (.18)44% (106)29.847% (112)44% (97)3.57 (59)38.81.31.1
NW#83 (.15)43% (57)23.446% (46)2.97 (64)16142% (66)1863.21 (116)#72 (.17)45% (117)19.847% (119)44% (101)3.37 (41)33.81.61.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1215.89.732.7%2.711.3152721341383.555%42%34%31%21%-
NW Defense1319.812.445.3%3.371.5 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1229.835.744.5%3.571.1 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.18
NW Offense1323.426.843.2%3.211.6203471611864.751%47%46%42%17%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1229:4414.734%53%4.738.81.31.14.61.8127.7
Northwestern1332:1819.743%59%4.233.81.61.541.8028.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1255% (28)34% (133)37.8133.73.511 (88).03 (111)2.52 (130)58% (133)16% (136)1.09 (23)
NW Defense1352% (91)47% (119) - - - - .18 (108)3.16 (113)71% (63)9% (93)0.99 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1252% (99)47% (112) - - - - .16 (98)2.97 (83)63% (17)9% (99)1.03 (100)
NW Offense1351% (57)46% (46)34.5160.94.716 (99).14 (58)2.97 (64)76% (41)8% (33)0.91 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1242% (112)31% (133)1323.1138610.611 (114)8 (20)-.03 (136)1.6 (64)36% (132)22% (133).06 (130)5% (42)1.9 (89)
NW Defense1346% (38)44% (101) - - - - - - 9 (75).24 (63)1.4 (6)28% (119)34% (120).32 (82)6% (62)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1246% (39)44% (97) - - - - - - 9 (100).3 (93)1.6 (72)30% (101)32% (101).33 (89)5% (90)2 (64)
NW Offense1347% (81)42% (66)17.229.1185.96.410.817 (75)13 (108).21 (85)1.5 (97)30% (46)33% (33).31 (66)9% (130)1.8 (128)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -20.18  #132
Ball State's Offense Rating: 0.19  #131
Ball State's Defense Rating: 25.37  #122
2026 Talent Rating: 444.00  #123
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #24
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 524.17
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -20.18   Northwestern: 6.145

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.0   Northwestern: 5.8




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 6.145  #59
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 11.07  #66
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 14.58  #52
2026 Talent Rating: 886.00  #28
Blue Chip Ratio: 0  #24
Northwestern's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Northwestern's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.8  #51
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 896.78
Average Power Five Talent: 885.22
Average FBS Talent: 707.18


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Northwestern 36
Ball State 8

Projected Total Points: 44
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201509/26Northwestern24Ball State19Northwestern -18Ball State48.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern100 Overs
Ball State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#132) BALL at (#59) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLNW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #132 #59
SP+SP+ #132 #51
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #123 #28
Blue ChipsBC% #24 #24
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffNW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #136 #117
ExplosiveExp #38 #12
PPAPPA #134 #72
PowerPwr #131 #52
SP+SP+ #134 #30
Pts POPPO #132 #41
HavocHav #135 #83
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffNW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #133 #119
Run ExplRExp #23 #85
PPAExp #111 #108
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #130 #113
Stuff RateStuff #123 #118
TackleTak - NR
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffNW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #133 #101
Pass ExplPExl #64 #6
PPAExp #136 #63
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #136 #93
DB HavocDB #42 #62
Northwestern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffBALL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #57 #106
ExplosiveExp #108 #70
PPAPPA #83 #79
PowerPwr #66 #122
SP+SP+ #90 #115
Pts POPPO #116 #59
HavocHav #94 #105
Northwestern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffBALL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #46 #112
Run ExplRExp #92 #100
PPAExp #58 #98
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #64 #83
Stuff RateStuff #48 #41
TackleTak - NR
Northwestern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffBALL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #97
Pass ExplPExl #97 #72
PPAExp #85 #93
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #99
DB HavocDB #130 #90
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in L&S Martin Stadium (Temp)
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Horton6018003.013
Jalen Bonds277712.915
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)197503.99
Elijah Jackson81702.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Donovan Hamilton20244012.247
TJ Horton157114.719
Jalen Bonds252026.054
Jamarion McDougle243021.525

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derek Fields Jr.311002
Tobi Adewoyin140000
Deondre Shepherd131000
Ameir Glenn133100
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100
Ben Marsh72100
Mikeah Webster20000
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Derek Fields Jr.311002
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Deondre Shepherd131000

NW's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)12820363%13921036.9
Ryan Boe2729%17012.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Komolafe190941115.056
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Joseph Himon II9948614.937
Aidan Chiles (Tr)8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Griffin Wilde71880812.449
Hayden Eligon Ii37521314.138
Ricky Ahumaraeze10200020.035
Drew Wagner2217227.840

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Robert Fitzgerald1066014
Braydon Brus815344
Braden Turner522012
Michael Kilbane428481
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Kilbane428481
Braydon Brus815344
Mason Green11100
Kobie McKinzie (Tr)327140
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Fussell291009
Brenden Deasfernandes (Tr)250008
Robert Fitzgerald1066014