Ball State at Northwestern - 2026 Matchup Preview
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Ball State Cardinals at Northwestern Wildcats

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Saturday, October 10th 2026 (12:00 PM EDT)
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Cardinals (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach Mike Uremovich (4 - 8)
Avg Score : 16 - 30 (10 - 36 on Road)
Record Prediction: 0 - 0 (#104)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
NW 2nd straight Home Game
BALL coming off BYE
NW is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: Northwestern -27  (SP+ NW -29)
Projected Score: BALL: 9 - NW: 36 (44)
NW Win prob: 98% | Cover: 56%
BALL Travel: 174 miles, 1 hrs ahead
Wildcats (0 - 0) (0 - 0 - 0)
Coach David Braun (19 - 19)
Avg Score : 23 - 20 (27 - 12 @ Home)
Record Prediction: 5 - 7 (#78)
'26 Opponents: (Elite: 4) (Good: 2) (Avg: 1) (Bad: 4)
 
Ball State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Ball State at Ohio State+53.5————
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/10Ball State at Northwestern+27————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Ball State's Schedule
Northwestern's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Northwestern vs South Dakota State-27————
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19Northwestern vs Colorado-7————
Sat 9/26Northwestern at Indiana+29————
Fri 10/2Northwestern vs Penn State+11.5————
Sat 10/10Northwestern vs Ball State-27————
Sat 10/17Northwestern at Michigan State-1————
Sat 10/24Northwestern vs Rutgers-4————
Sat 10/31Northwestern at Oregon+25.5————
Sat 11/7Northwestern vs Iowa+11————
Sat 11/14Northwestern at Ohio State+28.5————
Sat 11/21Northwestern at Minnesota+5.5————
Sat 11/28Northwestern at Illinois+12————
Record: 0–0Projected spreads in italics

Total: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Played: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg 0, Bad 0, Poor 0
Future: Elite: 4, Good: 2, Avg 1, Bad 3, Poor 1
Wins: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0
Losses: Elite: 0, Good: 0, Avg: 0, Bad: 0, Poor: 0

Predictions for Northwestern's Schedule
Important Stats (2025)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL#134 (-)33% (136)15.834% (133)2.52 (130)13431% (133)1382.71 (132)#79 (.18)44% (106)29.847% (112)44% (97)3.57 (59)38.81.31.1
NW#83 (.15)43% (57)23.446% (46)2.97 (64)16142% (66)1863.21 (116)#72 (.17)45% (117)19.847% (119)44% (101)3.37 (41)33.81.61.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
BALL0%0%000%000%0%0%0000
NW0%0%000%000%0%0%0000



Overall Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Offense1215.89.732.7%2.711.3152721341383.555%42%34%31%21%-
NW Defense1319.812.445.3%3.371.5 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%15%.17
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
BALL Defense1229.835.744.5%3.571.1 - - - - - 52%46%47%44%14%.18
NW Offense1323.426.843.2%3.211.6203471611864.751%47%46%42%17%.15

Additional Stats 2025
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Ball State1229:4414.734%53%4.738.81.31.14.61.8127.7
Northwestern1332:1819.743%59%4.233.81.61.541.8028.5
Run Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Offense1255% (28)34% (133)37.8133.73.511 (88).03 (111)2.52 (130)58% (133)16% (136)1.09 (23)
NW Defense1352% (91)47% (119) - - - - .18 (108)3.16 (113)71% (63)9% (93)0.99 (85)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
BALL Defense1252% (99)47% (112) - - - - .16 (98)2.97 (83)63% (17)9% (99)1.03 (100)
NW Offense1351% (57)46% (46)34.5160.94.716 (99).14 (58)2.97 (64)76% (41)8% (33)0.91 (92)

Pass Game Stats (2026)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Offense1242% (112)31% (133)1323.1138610.611 (114)8 (20)-.03 (136)1.6 (64)36% (132)22% (133).06 (130)5% (42)1.9 (89)
NW Defense1346% (38)44% (101) - - - - - - 9 (75).24 (63)1.4 (6)28% (119)34% (120).32 (82)6% (62)1.8 (20)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
BALL Defense1246% (39)44% (97) - - - - - - 9 (100).3 (93)1.6 (72)30% (101)32% (101).33 (89)5% (90)2 (64)
NW Offense1347% (81)42% (66)17.229.1185.96.410.817 (75)13 (108).21 (85)1.5 (97)30% (46)33% (33).31 (66)9% (130)1.8 (128)

Ball State's Power Ratings
Ball State's Power Rating: -19.42  #137
Ball State's Offense Rating: -0.25  #136
Ball State's Defense Rating: 24.17  #128
2026 Talent Rating: 550.00  #110
Blue Chip Ratio: 0%  #103
Ball State's 2026 Expected Record: 0.0 - 0.0
Ball State's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: -23.0  #132
Ball State's Offense SP+ Rating: 13.4  #134
Ball State's Defense SP+ Rating: 34.4  #115

Average Talent
Average Mid-American Talent Rating is 546.62
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81

Power Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -19.42   Northwestern: 5.91

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Ball State: -23.0   Northwestern: 5.8




Northwestern's Power Ratings
Northwestern's Power Rating: 5.91  #73
Northwestern's Offense Rating: 12.23  #75
Northwestern's Defense Rating: 16.21  #72
2026 Talent Rating: 878.00  #40
Blue Chip Ratio: 4  #57
Northwestern's 2026 Expected Record: 5.0 - 7.0
Northwestern's 2026 Overall SP+ Rating: 5.8  #51
Northwestern's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.4  #90
Northwestern's Defense SP+ Rating: 20.0  #30

Average Talent
Average Big Ten Talent Rating is 916.78
Average Power Five Talent: 910.63
Average FBS Talent: 728.81


Ball State Scoring
Offense: 15.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 9.7
Defense: 29.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 35.7

Ball State's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record on Road: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread on Road: 0 - 0 - 0
Projected Score
Northwestern 36
Ball State 9

Projected Total Points: 44
Northwestern Scoring
Offense: 23.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 26.8
Defense: 19.8 PPG
Defense at Home: 12.4

Northwestern's 2026 Record
Record: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread: 0 - 0 - 0
Over/Under Record: 0 - 0
Record at home: 0 - 0
Record vs Spread at home: 0 - 0 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
201509/26Northwestern24Ball State19Northwestern -18Ball State48.5Under
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Northwestern100 Overs
Ball State011 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams1 - 00 - 10 - 10 - 0
Road Teams0 - 11 - 00 - 01 - 0

(#137) BALL at (#73) NW
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatBALLNW
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwr #137 #73
SP+SP+ #132 #51
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #110 #40
Blue ChipsBC% #103 #57
Ball State Notes
(3/4) Vibes: If this team wins 2 games I'll be shocked
(3/4) QB Luster (Tx St) taken 6 snaps, most exp'd QB
(3/4) RB Horton has some exp, rough unit on paper
(3/4) WR 2 exp'd starters (meh), 4 portal adds
(3/4) OL looks OK, 4 very exp'd starters, tons of bodies
(3/4) Def 13 portals need to help, esp 4 on a rough DL
(3/4) This is the worst Def on paper I've seen this year
Ball State Injury Report
Northwestern Notes
(2/17) Vibes: Braun has NW fighting, OC Kelly fix Off?
(2/4) QB Chiles (MSU) hasn't lived up. Can OC Kelly fix?
(2/4) RB really good stable of backs, top 1/2 B1G unit?
(2/4) WR has many exp'd options & good starting duo
(2/4) OL is a huge ? Only 2 w starting exp. Vital need
(2/4) DL was bad LY, not much portal help. Some exp
(2/4) LBs only 2 exp'd, depth must fill gaps
(2/4) CB 2 portal adds fill big need, S needs a #2
(2/4) Cats have weapons, OL & Def are ? w/o answers
Northwestern Injury Report
Ball State on Offense
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffNW Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #136 #117
ExplosiveExp #38 #12
PPAPPA #134 #72
PowerPwr #136 #72
SP+SP+ #134 #30
Pts POPPO #132 #41
HavocHav #135 #83
Ball State Run Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffNW Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #133 #119
Run ExplRExp #23 #85
PPAExp #111 #108
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #130 #113
Stuff RateStuff #123 #118
TackleTak - NR
Ball State Pass Game
Run heavy Offense 55%, Pass: 42%
CategoryCat
BALL OffNW Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #133 #101
Pass ExplPExl #64 #6
PPAExp #136 #63
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #136 #93
DB HavocDB #42 #62
Northwestern on Offense
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffBALL Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSuc #57 #106
ExplosiveExp #108 #70
PPAPPA #83 #79
PowerPwr #75 #128
SP+SP+ #90 #115
Pts POPPO #116 #59
HavocHav #94 #105
Northwestern Run Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCat
NW OffBALL Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSuc #46 #112
Run ExplRExp #92 #100
PPAExp #58 #98
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLY #64 #83
Stuff RateStuff #48 #41
TackleTak - NR
Northwestern Pass Game
Balanced offense, Pass: 47%, Run: 51%
CategoryCatNW OffBALL Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSuc #66 #97
Pass ExplPExl #97 #72
PPAExp #85 #93
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7 #33 #99
DB HavocDB #130 #90
Program Comparison
NW 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'26 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

BALL 5 Year Profile: Consistent Poor G5
'26 Profile: Remains Poor G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in
Conditions:
Temp: 0°
No Matchups Past 4 Years
  
BALL's OC Mike Uremovich (in his second season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Keldric Luster (Tr)1333%14004.7
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
TJ Horton6018003.013
Jalen Bonds277712.915
Johnny Thompson Jr. (Tr)197503.99
Elijah Jackson81702.17
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
CJ Nelson (Tr)22393317.975
Donovan Hamilton20244012.247
Jabari Smith15166311.137
TJ Horton157114.719

View Ball State's Full Roster

BALL's DC Jeff Knowles (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Tobi Adewoyin140000
Ameir Glenn133100
Deondre Shepherd131000
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100
Jared Badie (Tr)82140
Ben Marsh72100
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Willizhuan Yates320006
Maverick Gracio (Tr)42121
Ameir Glenn133100

NW's OC Chip Kelly (in his first season)
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Aidan Chiles (Tr)12820363%13921036.9
Ryan Boe2729%17012.4
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Caleb Komolafe190941115.056
Gavin Sawchuk (Tr)10948684.540
Joseph Himon II9948614.937
Aidan Chiles (Tr)8122762.864
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG
Griffin Wilde71880812.449
Hayden Eligon Ii37521314.138
Ricky Ahumaraeze10200020.035
Drew Wagner2217227.840

View Northwestern's Full Roster

NW's DC Tim McGarigle (been DC for 3 years)
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Robert Fitzgerald1066014
Braydon Brus815344
Braden Turner522012
Michael Kilbane428481
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Michael Kilbane428481
Braydon Brus815344
Mason Green11100
Kobie McKinzie (Tr)327140
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Josh Fussell291009
Brenden Deasfernandes (Tr)250008
Robert Fitzgerald1066014