Sat, Sep 13 2025
·
Week 3
·
🏟 Beaver Stadium
University Park, PA
·
Turf
·
106,572 cap
Villanova✈ 143 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Penn State wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Penn State -46.5
O/U 57.5
DraftKings
Villanova 2025 Schedule
Villanova's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Villanova at Penn State | +46.5L6–52 | 57.5 | L6–52 | O | Y |
Penn State 2025 Schedule
Penn State's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Penn State vs Nevada | -45.5W46–11 | 58.5 | W46–11 | U | N |
| Sat 9/6 | Penn State vs Florida International | -42.0W34–0 | 53.5 | W34–0 | U | N |
| Sat 9/13 | Penn State vs Villanova | -46.5W52–6 | 57.5 | W52–6 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Penn State vs Oregon | -4.5L24–30 | 52.5 | L24–30 | O | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Penn State at UCLA | -24.5L37–42 | 48.5 | L37–42 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Penn State vs Northwestern | -20.5L21–22 | 46.5 | L21–22 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Penn State at Iowa | +3.5L24–25 | 41.5 | L24–25 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Penn State at Ohio State | +17.5L14–38 | 45.5 | L14–38 | O | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Penn State vs Indiana | +13.5L24–27 | 50.5 | L24–27 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Penn State at Michigan State | -7.0W28–10 | 48.5 | W28–10 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Penn State vs Nebraska | -7.5W37–10 | 45.5 | W37–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Penn State at Rutgers | -14.5W40–36 | 55.5 | W40–36 | O | N |
| Sat 12/27 | Penn State vs Clemson | +2.5W22–10 | 47.5 | W22–10 | U | Y |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Villanova Edge
Villanova +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Penn State Edge
Penn State +52.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓