Arkansas at Mississippi State - 2020 Matchup Preview
Arkansas logo Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State BulldogsMississippi State logo
Saturday, October 3rd 2020 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -16.5 (68.0)
Arkansas 21 - Mississippi State: 14  (SEC)

 
Razorbacks (3 - 7) (5 - 4 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 26 - 35 (33 - 40 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Our Line: -2  (SP+ ARK -0.5)
Projected Score: ARK: 23 - MSST: 36 (59)
MSST Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
ARK Travel: 355 miles
Bulldogs (4 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 21 - 28 (23 - 24 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
 
Arkansas's 2020 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26 Arkansas vs Georgia+28.053.0L 10 - 37UY
Sat 10/3 Arkansas at Mississippi State+16.568.0W 21 - 14UY
Sat 10/10 Arkansas at Auburn+13.546.0L 28 - 30OY
Sat 10/17 Arkansas vs Ole Miss-1.077.5W 33 - 21UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Arkansas at Texas A&M+10.5
Sat 11/7 Arkansas vs Tennessee+2.554.0W 24 - 13UY
Sat 11/14 Arkansas at Florida+17.062.0L 35 - 63ON
Sat 11/21 Arkansas vs LSU+1.564.5L 24 - 27UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/5 Arkansas at Missouri+2.055.5L 48 - 50OY
Sat 12/12 Arkansas vs Alabama+28.569.5L 3 - 52UN
Thu 12/31 Arkansas vs TCU+4.557.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule
Mississippi State's 2020 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26 Mississippi State at LSU+14.557.0W 44 - 34OY
Sat 10/3 Mississippi State vs Arkansas-16.568.0L 14 - 21UN
Sat 10/10 Mississippi State at Kentucky+3.557.5L 2 - 24UN
Sat 10/17 Mississippi State vs Texas A&M+4.556.0L 14 - 28UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31 Mississippi State at Alabama+32.0
Sat 11/7 Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt-18.545.0W 24 - 17UN
BYE WEEK
Sat 11/21 Mississippi State at Georgia+25.544.5L 24 - 31OY
Sat 11/28 Mississippi State at Ole Miss+10.070.0L 24 - 31UY
BYE WEEK
Sat 12/12 Mississippi State vs Auburn+5.550.5L 10 - 24UN
Sat 12/19 Mississippi State vs Missouri+1.549.0W 51 - 32OY
Thu 12/31 Mississippi State vs Tulsa+2.548.0W 28 - 26OY

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Mississippi State's Schedule
Important Stats (2020)
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK.2344%25.743%2.9715147%2393.84.1646%34.947%45%3.7345.71.31.8
MSST.0541%21.447%34440%2962.9.1141%28.142%40%3.1860.22.31.5
 Teams                  Off Explosive.Off SuccessPPGRush SuccessOL Yds Per AttRush YPGPass SuccessPass YPGOff ScoreZoneDef Explosive.Def SuccessDef PPGRunD SuccessPass D SuccessDef ScoreZonePenalty YPGTO PGDef TO PG
ARK#27 (.25)48% (13)52% (5)3.23 (38)16844% (41)2483.95 (64)#45 (.13)42% (66)39% (32)44% (100)3.31 (22)56.31.71
MSST#78 (.17)39% (109)40% (105)2.9 (93)13938% (104)2393.75 (86)#130 (.32)50% (133)47% (108)55% (134)4.32 (113)60.31.50.9



Overall Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Offense1025.732.644.5%3.841.3213901512393.852%48%43%47%15%.23
MSST Defense1128.124.441.1%3.181.5 - - - - - 47%53%42%40%16%.11
 Teams                  GamesPPGPPG H/RSuccess RatePts PerOppTO1stD PGTotalYds PGRushYds PGPassYdsPGRYPARun RatePass RateRun SuccessPass SuccessHavoc RateTotal PPA
ARK Defense1034.939.845.8%3.731.8 - - - - - 50%50%47%45%14%.16
MSST Offense1121.422.641.2%2.92.319340442962.423%77%47%40%20%.05

Additional Stats 2020
 Teams                  GamesPossession Time1st Downs PG3rd Down %4th Down %Penalties PGPenalty Yds PGOff TO PGDef TO PGTFL PGSacks PGD/ST TDsAvg Field Pos
Arkansas1025:1720.633%64%6.445.71.31.851.4324.2
Mississippi State1130:5418.832%57%6.560.22.31.55.52.3227.6
Run Game Stats (2020)
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Offense1052%43%39.4151.33.811.092.9770%11%0.81
MSST Defense1147%42% - - - - .042.8165%9%0.85
 Teams                  GamesRun Play RateRun Play SuccessRush Att PGRush Yds PGRush Yds Per AttRushing TDsRun Pred Pts AddedOL Yds Per Att3rd/4th & ShortFront 7 HavocRun Play Explosivness
ARK Defense1050%47% - - - - .133.1475%8%0.91
MSST Offense1123%47%18.544.12.48.06374%9%0.76

Pass Game Stats (2020)
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Offense1048%47%18.228.3238.68.413.1206.391.629%29%.275%2
MSST Defense1153%40% - - - - - - 10.181.730%31%.347%2.3
 Teams                  GamesPassPlay RatePassPlay SuccessComp PGAtt PGYds PGYds PAYds PCTDs    Ints    PassPlays PPAPassPlays ExplPassDowns RatePassDowns Succ RatePassDowns PPADB HavocPassDowns Expl
ARK Defense1050%45% - - - - - - 13.191.528%39%.456%1.9
MSST Offense1177%40%33.950.6296.35.98.71718.051.231%28%.2311%2.2

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating:  #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas's 2020 Expected Record: -
Arkansas's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8  #57
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2  #54
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2  #62

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas:    Mississippi State: 3.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 2.8   Mississippi State: 2.2




Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 3.6 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating:  #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2020 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.2  #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8  #79
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7  #49

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482


Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 25.7 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.6
Defense: 34.9 PPG
Defense on Road: 39.8

Arkansas's 2020 Record
Record: 3 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0
Projected Score
Mississippi State 36
Arkansas 23

Total Points: 59

Based on Last 4 Games
Mississippi State 41
Arkansas 18

Total Points: 59

Based on Entire Season
Mississippi State 30
Arkansas 28

Total Points: 58
Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 21.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 22.6
Defense: 28.1 PPG
Defense at Home: 24.4

Mississippi State's 2020 Record
Record: 4 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0


YearDateHomeScoreAwayScoreSpreadCoverTotalO/U
202511/01Arkansas35Mississippi State38Arkansas -5.5Mississippi State66.5Over
202410/26Mississippi State25Arkansas58Arkansas -7.5Arkansas55.0Over
202310/21Arkansas3Mississippi State7Arkansas -6.5Mississippi State46.5Under
202210/08Mississippi State40Arkansas17Mississippi State -8Mississippi State55.5Over
202111/06Arkansas31Mississippi State28Arkansas -4Mississippi State54.0Over
202010/03Mississippi State14Arkansas21Mississippi State -16.5Arkansas68.0Under
201911/02Arkansas24Mississippi State54Mississippi State -7Mississippi State59.0Over
201811/17Mississippi State52Arkansas6Mississippi State -22.5Mississippi State49.0Over
201711/18Arkansas21Mississippi State28Mississippi State -14Arkansas56.0Under
201611/19Mississippi State42Arkansas58Mississippi State -1Arkansas57.5Over
201511/21Arkansas50Mississippi State51Arkansas -3Mississippi State59.0Over
201411/01Mississippi State17Arkansas10Mississippi State -14Arkansas0
201311/23Arkansas17Mississippi State24Mississippi State -3Mississippi State0
201211/17Mississippi State45Arkansas14
201111/19Arkansas44Mississippi State17
201011/20Mississippi State31Arkansas38
200911/21Arkansas42Mississippi State21
200811/22Mississippi State31Arkansas28
200711/17Arkansas45Mississippi State31
200611/18Mississippi State14Arkansas28
200511/19Arkansas44Mississippi State10
200411/20Mississippi State21Arkansas24
200311/22Arkansas52Mississippi State6
200111/17Arkansas24Mississippi State21
200011/17Mississippi State10Arkansas17
TeamWinsCoversO/U
Mississippi State1188 Overs
Arkansas1453 Unders

WinsCoversFavsDogs
Home Teams12 - 133 - 102 - 71 - 3
Road Teams13 - 1210 - 33 - 17 - 2

(#) ARK at (#) MSST
Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCatARKMSST
Net PPPPPPNRNR
Power RatePwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #57 #58
Perf GradeGradeNRNR
OffenseOffNRNR
DefenseDefNRNR
Spec TeamsSTNRNR
TalentTal #26 #24
Blue ChipsBC%NRNR
Arkansas on Offense
CategoryCat
ARK OffMSST Def
PPPOffPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #54 #49
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Arkansas Run Game
CategoryCat
ARK OffMSST Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Arkansas Pass Game
CategoryCat
ARK OffMSST Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Rush/BlockP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Mississippi State on Offense
CategoryCatMSST OffARK Def
PPPDefPPPNRNR
Perf GradePerfNRNR
SuccessSucNRNR
ExplosiveExpNRNR
PPAPPANRNR
PowerPwrNRNR
SP+SP+ #79 #62
Pts POPPONRNR
HavocHavNRNR
Mississippi State Run Game
CategoryCat
MSST OffARK Def
Run GameRunNRNR
Run SuccessRSucNRNR
Run ExplRExpNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Run BlockR BlkNR -
OL YdsOLYNRNR
Stuff RateStuffNRNR
TackleTak - NR
Mississippi State Pass Game
CategoryCatMSST OffARK Def
Pass GamePassNRNR
Pass SuccessPSucNRNR
Pass ExplPExlNRNR
PPAExpNRNR
Pass Block/RushP BlkNRNR
F7 HavocF7NRNR
DB HavocDBNRNR
Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'20 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ARK 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'20 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions: Fog
Temp: 69°
Rematch from Week 5
Mississippi State -16.5 (68.0)
Arkansas won at Mississippi State this year (21-14)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas beat Mississippi State last year (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2022 (40-17)

  
ARK's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD

MSST's OC ()
Player NameCOMPATTPCTYDSTDINTYPA
Player NameCARYDSTDYPCLONG
Player NameRECYDSTDYPCLONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()
Top DefTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
SacksTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD
Pass DTackTFLSACKSPRESSPD