Arkansas at Mississippi State - 2020 Matchup Preview

Arkansas Razorbacks at Mississippi State Bulldogs

Saturday, October 3rd 2020 (7:30 PM EDT)
Mississippi State -16.5 (68.0)
Arkansas 21 - Mississippi State: 14 (SEC)

Razorbacks (3 - 7) (5 - 4 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 33 - 34 (31 - 36 on Road)
'20 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Our Line: -2 (SP+ ARK -0.5)
Projected Score: ARK: 31 - MSST: 34 (65)
MSST Win prob: 90% | Cover: 54%
ARK Travel: 355 miles

Bulldogs (4 - 7) (5 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (34 - 28 @ Home)
'20 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARK Players
MSST Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas's 2020 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26	Arkansas vs Georgia	+28.0	53.0	L 10 - 37	U	Y
Sat 10/3	Arkansas at Mississippi State	+16.5	68.0	W 21 - 14	U	Y
Sat 10/10	Arkansas at Auburn	+13.5	46.0	L 28 - 30	O	Y
Sat 10/17	Arkansas vs Ole Miss	-1.0	77.5	W 33 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Arkansas at Texas A&M	+10.5
Sat 11/7	Arkansas vs Tennessee	+2.5	54.0	W 24 - 13	U	Y
Sat 11/14	Arkansas at Florida	+17.0	62.0	L 35 - 63	O	N
Sat 11/21	Arkansas vs LSU	+1.5	64.5	L 24 - 27	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/5	Arkansas at Missouri	+2.0	55.5	L 48 - 50	O	Y
Sat 12/12	Arkansas vs Alabama	+28.5	69.5	L 3 - 52	U	N
Thu 12/31	Arkansas vs TCU	+4.5	57.0

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas's Schedule

Mississippi State's 2020 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/26	Mississippi State at LSU	+14.5	57.0	W 44 - 34	O	Y
Sat 10/3	Mississippi State vs Arkansas	-16.5	68.0	L 14 - 21	U	N
Sat 10/10	Mississippi State at Kentucky	+3.5	57.5	L 2 - 24	U	N
Sat 10/17	Mississippi State vs Texas A&M	+4.5	56.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/31	Mississippi State at Alabama	+32.0
Sat 11/7	Mississippi State vs Vanderbilt	-18.5	45.0	W 24 - 17	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/21	Mississippi State at Georgia	+25.5	44.5	L 24 - 31	O	Y
Sat 11/28	Mississippi State at Ole Miss	+10.0	70.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/12	Mississippi State vs Auburn	+5.5	50.5	L 10 - 24	U	N
Sat 12/19	Mississippi State vs Missouri	+1.5	49.0	W 51 - 32	O	Y
Thu 12/31	Mississippi State vs Tulsa	+2.5	48.0	W 28 - 26	O	Y

Important Stats (2019)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK	.05	38%	32.9	40%	2.98	147	34%	193	2.65	.28	46%	33.8	44%	47%	4.29	41	1.8	1.8
MSST	.26	46%	30.4	49%	3.46	221	41%	179	4.29	.21	46%	30.2	45%	46%	3.86	44.5	1.8	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARK		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
MSST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2019

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Offense	12	32.9	31.2	38.1%	2.65	1.8	18	340	147	193	4.7	43%	55%	40%	34%	25%	.05
MSST Defense	13	30.2	27.9	46.2%	3.86	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	47%	45%	46%	23%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARK Defense	12	33.8	36.4	46.1%	4.29	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	53%	45%	44%	47%	18%	.28
MSST Offense	13	30.4	33.9	46.1%	4.29	1.8	21	400	221	179	5.4	59%	40%	49%	41%	20%	.26

Additional Stats 2019

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas	12	27:49	18.3	33%	40%	5.1	41	1.8	1.8	6.3	2.2	0	29.2
Mississippi State	13	31:40	21.5	39%	39%	5.5	44.5	1.8	2.2	6.9	2.3	2	27.2

Run Game Stats (2020)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Offense	12	43%	40%	31.3	147.2	4.7	14	.06	2.98	65%	11%	1.04
MSST Defense	13	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.09	2.93	77%	14%	0.95

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARK Defense	12	53%	44%	-	-	-	-	.17	2.98	63%	11%	1.01
MSST Offense	13	59%	49%	40.7	220.6	5.4	27	.27	3.46	77%	13%	1.09

Pass Game Stats (2020)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Offense	12	55%	34%	16.8	33.9	192.9	5.7	11.5	14	15	.04	1.7	35%	31%	.3	14%	2.1
MSST Defense	13	47%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	10	.36	1.8	32%	38%	.36	10%	2

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARK Defense	12	45%	47%	-	-	-	-	-	-	6	.42	1.6	32%	38%	.49	7%	1.9
MSST Offense	13	40%	41%	14.3	24.2	179.5	7.4	12.5	19	10	.25	1.6	31%	36%	.41	8%	1.7

Arkansas's Power Ratings
Arkansas's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating: #26
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas's 2020 Expected Record: -
Arkansas's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.8 #57
Arkansas's Offense SP+ Rating: 30.2 #54
Arkansas's Defense SP+ Rating: 27.2 #62

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: Mississippi State: 3.6

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas: 2.8 Mississippi State: 2.2

Mississippi State's Power Ratings
Mississippi State's Power Rating: 3.6 NR
Mississippi State's Offense Rating: NR
Mississippi State's Defense Rating: NR
2020 Talent Rating: #24
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Mississippi State's 2020 Expected Record: -
Mississippi State's 2020 Overall SP+ Rating: 2.2 #58
Mississippi State's Offense SP+ Rating: 26.8 #79
Mississippi State's Defense SP+ Rating: 25.7 #49

Average Talent
Average SEC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas Scoring
Offense: 32.9 PPG
Offense on Road: 31.2
Defense: 33.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 36.4

Arkansas's 2020 Record
Record: 3 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 4 - 1
Over/Under Record: 3 - 7
Record on Road: 1 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 2 - 2 - 1
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 1
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 2 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Mississippi State 34
Arkansas 31

Projected Total Points: 65

Mississippi State Scoring
Offense: 30.4 PPG
Offense at Home: 33.9
Defense: 30.2 PPG
Defense at Home: 27.9

Mississippi State's 2020 Record
Record: 4 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 4 - 7
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 1 - 4 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	11/01	Arkansas	35	Mississippi State	38	Arkansas -5.5	Mississippi State	66.5	Over
2024	10/26	Mississippi State	25	Arkansas	58	Arkansas -7.5	Arkansas	55.0	Over
2023	10/21	Arkansas	3	Mississippi State	7	Arkansas -6.5	Mississippi State	46.5	Under
2022	10/08	Mississippi State	40	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State -8	Mississippi State	55.5	Over
2021	11/06	Arkansas	31	Mississippi State	28	Arkansas -4	Mississippi State	54.0	Over
2020	10/03	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	21	Mississippi State -16.5	Arkansas	68.0	Under
2019	11/02	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	54	Mississippi State -7	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2018	11/17	Mississippi State	52	Arkansas	6	Mississippi State -22.5	Mississippi State	49.0	Over
2017	11/18	Arkansas	21	Mississippi State	28	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	56.0	Under
2016	11/19	Mississippi State	42	Arkansas	58	Mississippi State -1	Arkansas	57.5	Over
2015	11/21	Arkansas	50	Mississippi State	51	Arkansas -3	Mississippi State	59.0	Over
2014	11/01	Mississippi State	17	Arkansas	10	Mississippi State -14	Arkansas	0
2013	11/23	Arkansas	17	Mississippi State	24	Mississippi State -3	Mississippi State	0
2012	11/17	Mississippi State	45	Arkansas	14
2011	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	17
2010	11/20	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	38
2009	11/21	Arkansas	42	Mississippi State	21
2008	11/22	Mississippi State	31	Arkansas	28
2007	11/17	Arkansas	45	Mississippi State	31
2006	11/18	Mississippi State	14	Arkansas	28
2005	11/19	Arkansas	44	Mississippi State	10
2004	11/20	Mississippi State	21	Arkansas	24
2003	11/22	Arkansas	52	Mississippi State	6
2001	11/17	Arkansas	24	Mississippi State	21
2000	11/17	Mississippi State	10	Arkansas	17

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Mississippi State	11	8	8 Overs
Arkansas	14	5	3 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	12 - 13	3 - 10	2 - 7	1 - 3
Road Teams	13 - 12	10 - 3	3 - 1	7 - 2

(#) ARK at (#) MSST

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARK	MSST
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#57	#58
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#26	#24
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas Injury Report

Mississippi State Injury Report

Arkansas on Offense


CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#54	#49
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas Run Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARK Off	MSST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Mississippi State on Offense


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#79	#62
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Mississippi State Run Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Mississippi State Pass Game


CategoryCat	MSST Off	ARK Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
MSST 5 Year Profile: Declining Below Avg P4
'20 Profile: Remains Below Avg P4

ARK 5 Year Profile: Improving Top G5
'20 Profile: Up to Below Avg P4

Weather Forecast
Playing in Davis Wade Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 5
Mississippi State -16.5 (68.0)
Arkansas won at Mississippi State this year (21-14)

Previous Matchups
Mississippi State beat Arkansas last year (38-35)
Arkansas beat Mississippi State in 2024 (58-25)
Mississippi State beat Arkansas in 2023 (7-3)

ARK's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas's Full Roster

ARK's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

MSST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Mississippi State's Full Roster

MSST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD