Air Force at Nevada - 2017 Matchup Preview

Friday, October 20th 2017 (9:30 PM EDT)
Air Force -6.5 (65.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Air Force 45 - Nevada: 42 (Mountain West)

Falcons (5 - 7) (5 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 30 - 30 (32 - 33 on Road)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NEV is playing their 8th straight game
AFA is playing their 6th straight game
Our Line: -0 (SP+ AFA -5.5)
Projected Score: AFA: 29 - NEV: 25 (54)
AFA Win prob: 68% | Cover: 48%
AFA Travel: 801 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Wolf Pack (3 - 9) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 18 - 28 (20 - 25 @ Home)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
AFA Players
NEV Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Air Force's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Air Force vs VMI	-35.0
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Air Force at Michigan	+23.0	53.0	L 13 - 29	U	Y
Sat 9/23	Air Force vs San Diego State	+1.5	48.0	L 24 - 28	O	N
Sat 9/30	Air Force at New Mexico	-3.0	50.5	L 38 - 56	O	N
Sat 10/7	Air Force at Navy	+8.5	53.5	L 45 - 48	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Air Force vs UNLV	-9.5	65.5	W 34 - 30	U	N
Fri 10/20	Air Force at Nevada	-6.5	65.0	W 45 - 42	O	N
Sat 10/28	Air Force at Colorado State	+9.5	68.5	W 45 - 28	O	Y
Sat 11/4	Air Force vs Army	-6.5	54.5	L 0 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/11	Air Force vs Wyoming	-2.5	51.0	L 14 - 28	U	N
Sat 11/18	Air Force at Boise State	+17.5	60.5	L 19 - 44	O	N
Sat 11/25	Air Force vs Utah State	-2.5	57.5	W 38 - 35	O	Y

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Air Force's Schedule

Nevada's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Nevada at Northwestern	+24.0	60.5	L 20 - 31	U	Y
Sat 9/9	Nevada vs Toledo	+10.5	69.5	L 24 - 37	U	N
Sat 9/16	Nevada vs Idaho State	-34.5
Sat 9/23	Nevada at Washington State	+28.5	65.5	L 7 - 45	U	N
Sat 9/30	Nevada at Fresno State	+7.5	59.5	L 21 - 41	O	N
Sat 10/7	Nevada vs Hawai'i	+4.5	62.5	W 35 - 21	U	Y
Sat 10/14	Nevada at Colorado State	+24.5	65.5	L 42 - 44	O	Y
Fri 10/20	Nevada vs Air Force	+6.5	65.0	L 42 - 45	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/4	Nevada at Boise State	+20.5	63.0	L 14 - 41	U	N
Sat 11/11	Nevada vs San José State	-17.5	67.5	W 59 - 14	O	Y
Sat 11/18	Nevada at San Diego State	+17.5	56.0	L 23 - 42	O	N
Sat 11/25	Nevada vs UNLV	-3.0	70.0	W 23 - 16	U	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA	.21	48%	29.8	49%	3.23	317	40%	135	3.8	.16	37%	30.3	35%	38%	3.27	52.4	1.3	1.8
NEV	.18	44%	17.6	47%	3.18	174	39%	208	3.18	.24	48%	27.5	48%	46%	3.72	40.2	0.9	1.1

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
AFA		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NEV		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Offense	13	29.8	32.2	48.5%	3.8	1.3	23	452	317	135	5	80%	18%	49%	40%	11%	.21
NEV Defense	12	27.5	25.2	48.4%	3.72	1.1	-	-	-	-	-	67%	31%	48%	46%	13%	.24

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
AFA Defense	13	30.3	32.8	37%	3.27	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	35%	38%	19%	.16
NEV Offense	12	17.6	19.7	44.3%	3.18	0.9	22	382	174	208	4.4	55%	44%	47%	39%	14%	.18

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Air Force	13	34:03	23.2	51%	53%	5.2	52.4	1.3	1.8	5.5	2.3	3	30.9
Nevada	12	29:17	21.8	49%	62%	4.3	40.2	0.9	1.1	4.6	1.1	0	27.8

Run Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Offense	13	80%	49%	63.6	317.4	5	39	.18	3.23	74%	9%	0.85
NEV Defense	12	67%	48%	-	-	-	-	.23	3.19	68%	9%	1.08

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
AFA Defense	13	49%	35%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.34	66%	11%	1.06
NEV Offense	12	55%	47%	39.5	174	4.4	20	.14	3.18	82%	9%	0.89

Pass Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Offense	13	18%	40%	5.2	11.5	134.8	11.7	25.8	14	8	.47	2.4	25%	35%	.28	2%	1.6
NEV Defense	12	31%	46%	-	-	-	-	-	-	5	.31	1.6	29%	43%	.39	4%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
AFA Defense	13	50%	38%	-	-	-	-	-	-	15	.3	2	38%	33%	.38	8%	2.3
NEV Offense	12	44%	39%	17.5	29.7	208.2	7	11.9	18	9	.27	1.6	30%	31%	.32	5%	1.8

Air Force's Power Ratings
Air Force's Power Rating: NR
Air Force's Offense Rating: NR
Air Force's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #150
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Air Force's 2017 Expected Record: -
Air Force's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: -11.0 #104
Air Force's Offense SP+ Rating: 28.8 #59
Air Force's Defense SP+ Rating: 40.5 #121

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Air Force: Nevada: -5.7

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Air Force: -11.0 Nevada: -16.4

Nevada's Power Ratings
Nevada's Power Rating: -5.7 NR
Nevada's Offense Rating: NR
Nevada's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #103
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
Nevada's 2017 Expected Record: -
Nevada's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: -16.4 #116
Nevada's Offense SP+ Rating: 25.6 #85
Nevada's Defense SP+ Rating: 41.1 #124

Average Talent
Average Mountain West Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Air Force Scoring
Offense: 29.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 32.2
Defense: 30.3 PPG
Defense on Road: 32.8

Air Force's 2017 Record
Record: 5 - 7
Record vs Spread: 5 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 7 - 5
Record on Road: 2 - 4
Record vs Spread on Road: 3 - 3 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 2 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 0 - 2 - 0

Projected Score
Air Force 29
Nevada 25

Projected Total Points: 54

Nevada Scoring
Offense: 17.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 19.7
Defense: 27.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 25.2

Nevada's 2017 Record
Record: 3 - 9
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record at home: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 5 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 2 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2024	11/23	Nevada	19	Air Force	22	Nevada -3	Air Force	44.5	Under
2022	09/23	Air Force	48	Nevada	20	Air Force -24	Air Force	47.0	Over
2021	11/19	Nevada	39	Air Force	41	Air Force -1.5	Air Force	53.5	Over
2018	09/29	Air Force	25	Nevada	28	Air Force -3.5	Nevada	64.0	Under
2017	10/20	Nevada	42	Air Force	45	Air Force -6.5	Nevada	65.0	Over
2014	11/15	Air Force	45	Nevada	38	Nevada -2.5	Air Force	0
2013	09/28	Nevada	45	Air Force	42	Nevada -7	Air Force	0
2012	10/26	Air Force	48	Nevada	31

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
Nevada	2	2	3 Overs
Air Force	6	5	2 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	4 - 4	3 - 4	1 - 3	2 - 1
Road Teams	4 - 4	4 - 3	1 - 2	3 - 1

(#) AFA at (#) NEV

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	AFA	NEV
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#104	#116
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#150	#103
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Air Force Injury Report

Nevada Injury Report

Air Force on Offense


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#59	#124
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Air Force Run Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Air Force Pass Game


CategoryCat	AFA Off	NEV Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Nevada on Offense


CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#85	#121
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Nevada Run Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Nevada Pass Game


CategoryCat	NEV Off	AFA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NEV 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

AFA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Mackay Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 8
Air Force 6.5 (65.0)
Air Force won at Nevada this year (45-42)

Previous Matchups
Air Force beat Nevada in 2024 (22-19)

AFA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Air Force's Full Roster

AFA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NEV's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Nevada's Full Roster

NEV's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD