Arkansas State at New Mexico State - 2017 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at New Mexico State Aggies

Saturday, October 28th 2017 (8:00 PM EDT)
Arkansas State -3.5 (71.0) (0) Open: 0.0
Arkansas State 37 - New Mexico State: 21 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

NMSU coming off BYE
ARST is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -3 (SP+ ARST -11)
Projected Score: ARST: 23 - NMSU: 24 (47)
ARST Win prob: 62% | Cover: 49%
ARST Travel: 951 miles, 1 hrs ahead

Aggies (7 - 6) (7 - 5 - 1)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 22 - 28 (23 - 18 @ Home)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
NMSU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Nebraska	+14.5	50.5	L 36 - 43	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-55.0
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State at SMU	+3.0	72.0	L 21 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	-9.0	54.5	W 43 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	-16.5	63.0	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Thu 10/19	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	-12.0	66.5	W 47 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at New Mexico State	-3.5	71.0	W 37 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	-12.5	55.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	W 30 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	-8.5	69.0	W 67 - 50	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Arkansas State vs Troy	-1.0	60.0	L 25 - 32	U	N
Sat 12/16	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

New Mexico State's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Thu 8/31	New Mexico State at Arizona State	+24.0	69.0	L 31 - 37	U	Y
Sat 9/9	New Mexico State at New Mexico	+7.0	69.5	W 30 - 28	U	Y
Sat 9/16	New Mexico State vs Troy	+9.5	60.5	L 24 - 27	U	Y
Sat 9/23	New Mexico State vs UTEP	-17.5	59.0	W 41 - 14	U	Y
Sat 9/30	New Mexico State at Arkansas	+18.0	61.0	L 24 - 42	O	Y
Sat 10/7	New Mexico State at App State	+13.5	55.5	L 31 - 45	O	N
Sat 10/14	New Mexico State at Georgia Southern	-5.5	59.0	W 35 - 27	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/28	New Mexico State vs Arkansas State	+3.5	71.0	L 21 - 37	U	N
Sat 11/4	New Mexico State at Texas State	-9.5	57.0	W 45 - 35	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/18	New Mexico State at Louisiana	-3.5	65.0	L 34 - 47	O	N
Sat 11/25	New Mexico State vs Idaho	-10.0	56.5	W 17 - 10	U	N
Sat 12/2	New Mexico State vs South Alabama	-11.5	54.0	W 22 - 17	U	N
Fri 12/29	New Mexico State vs Utah State	-4.0	61.0	W 26 - 20	U	Y

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.09	39%	25.2	39%	2.31	137	38%	242	3.04	.02	36%	27.4	36%	33%	2.99	64.2	1.3	1.6
NMSU	.11	41%	21.6	46%	3.28	171	34%	244	3.17	.21	46%	27.6	45%	44%	3.87	50	1.8	1.8

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
NMSU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	39.2%	3.04	1.3	19	379	137	242	3.5	52%	46%	39%	38%	19%	.09
NMSU Defense	12	27.6	17.7	45.5%	3.87	1.8	-	-	-	-	-	57%	41%	45%	44%	15%	.21

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	36.1%	2.99	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	36%	33%	22%	.02
NMSU Offense	12	21.6	23.2	40.6%	3.17	1.8	22	415	171	244	4.5	46%	52%	46%	34%	19%	.11

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	29:01	18.6	29%	58%	8.2	64.2	1.3	1.6	10.2	3.3	3	29.3
New Mexico State	12	26:34	22.2	34%	54%	6.3	50	1.8	1.8	6.1	0.9	1	28.8

Run Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	52%	39%	39.8	137.2	3.5	19	-.04	2.31	67%	13%	0.88
NMSU Defense	12	57%	45%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.08	74%	11%	1.04

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.05	2.5	63%	16%	0.78
NMSU Offense	12	46%	46%	37.8	170.9	4.5	13	.16	3.28	70%	11%	1.01

Pass Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	46%	38%	17.8	30.9	242.2	7.8	13.6	21	9	.28	1.8	36%	30%	.25	6%	2
NMSU Defense	12	41%	44%	-	-	-	-	-	-	13	.28	1.7	30%	38%	.33	5%	1.8

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.11	1.7	38%	30%	.26	6%	1.8
NMSU Offense	12	52%	34%	21.1	38.3	243.8	6.4	11.6	22	15	.07	1.7	36%	34%	.32	8%	1.8

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2017 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #66
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #56
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #74

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: New Mexico State: -2.2

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: 1.5 New Mexico State: -9.4

New Mexico State's Power Ratings
New Mexico State's Power Rating: -2.2 NR
New Mexico State's Offense Rating: NR
New Mexico State's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #125
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
New Mexico State's 2017 Expected Record: -
New Mexico State's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: -9.4 #99
New Mexico State's Offense SP+ Rating: 24.5 #94
New Mexico State's Defense SP+ Rating: 32.6 #94

Average Talent
Average Conference USA Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2017 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
New Mexico State 24
Arkansas State 23

Projected Total Points: 47

New Mexico State Scoring
Offense: 21.6 PPG
Offense at Home: 23.2
Defense: 27.6 PPG
Defense at Home: 17.7

New Mexico State's 2017 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 7 - 5 - 1
Over/Under Record: 5 - 8
Record at home: 3 - 2
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 1
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2017	10/28	New Mexico State	21	Arkansas State	37	Arkansas State -3.5	Arkansas State	71.0	Under
2016	11/12	Arkansas State	41	New Mexico State	22	Arkansas State -20.5	New Mexico State	63.0	Push
2015	11/28	New Mexico State	28	Arkansas State	52	Arkansas State -17	Arkansas State	71.0	Over
2014	11/29	Arkansas State	68	New Mexico State	35	Arkansas State -23.5	Arkansas State	0
2003	11/01	New Mexico State	24	Arkansas State	28
2002	10/26	Arkansas State	21	New Mexico State	26
2001	11/10	New Mexico State	28	Arkansas State	17
2000	10/20	Arkansas State	29	New Mexico State	35

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
New Mexico State	3	1	1 Overs
Arkansas State	5	3	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 5	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 3	3 - 1	2 - 0	1 - 1

(#) ARST at (#) NMSU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	NMSU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#66	#99
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#79	#125
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

New Mexico State Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NMSU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#94
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NMSU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	NMSU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

New Mexico State on Offense


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#94	#74
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

New Mexico State Run Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

New Mexico State Pass Game


CategoryCat	NMSU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
NMSU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Average G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Aggie Memorial Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 9
Arkansas State 3.5 (71.0)
Arkansas State won at New Mexico State this year (37-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

NMSU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View New Mexico State's Full Roster

NMSU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD