Arkansas State at South Alabama - 2017 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at South Alabama Jaguars

Saturday, November 11th 2017 (5:00 PM EST)
Arkansas State -12.5 (55.5) (0) Open: 0.0
South Alabama 24 - Arkansas State: 19 (Sun Belt)

Red Wolves (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 38 - 26 (37 - 35 on Road)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

USA 2nd straight Home Game
ARST coming off BYE
USA is playing their 5th straight game
Our Line: -4.5 (SP+ ARST -13.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 31 - USA: 23 (54)
ARST Win prob: 81% | Cover: 53%
ARST Travel: 388 miles

Jaguars (4 - 8) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 20 - 27 (20 - 27 @ Home)
Wins: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Losses: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)
Future: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
USA Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Nebraska	+14.5	50.5	L 36 - 43	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-55.0
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State at SMU	+3.0	72.0	L 21 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	-9.0	54.5	W 43 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	-16.5	63.0	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Thu 10/19	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	-12.0	66.5	W 47 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at New Mexico State	-3.5	71.0	W 37 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	-12.5	55.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	W 30 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	-8.5	69.0	W 67 - 50	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Arkansas State vs Troy	-1.0	60.0	L 25 - 32	U	N
Sat 12/16	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

South Alabama's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	South Alabama at Ole Miss	+22.0	59.5	L 27 - 47	O	Y
Fri 9/8	South Alabama vs Oklahoma State	+28.0	67.5	L 7 - 44	U	N
Sat 9/16	South Alabama vs Alabama A&M	-38.0
Sat 9/23	South Alabama vs Idaho	-6.5	55.0	L 23 - 29	U	N
Sat 9/30	South Alabama at Louisiana Tech	+11.5	57.5	L 16 - 34	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/11	South Alabama at Troy	+18.0	51.5	W 19 - 8	U	Y
Sat 10/21	South Alabama vs UL Monroe	-3.5	55.5	W 33 - 23	O	Y
Thu 10/26	South Alabama at Georgia State	+1.0	50.5	L 13 - 21	U	N
Sat 11/4	South Alabama vs Louisiana	-6.0	51.5	L 14 - 19	U	N
Sat 11/11	South Alabama vs Arkansas State	+12.5	55.5	W 24 - 19	U	Y
Sat 11/18	South Alabama at Georgia Southern	-6.0	44.5	L 0 - 52	O	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 12/2	South Alabama at New Mexico State	+11.5	54.0	L 17 - 22	U	Y

Important Stats (2017)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.17	46%	37.8	42%	2.69	153	48%	342	3.22	.08	38%	25.8	39%	36%	2.94	69	2.1	2.2
USA	.03	39%	19.8	38%	2.08	97	38%	237	3.12	.13	45%	26.5	44%	43%	3.2	56.6	1.5	1.7

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	#81 (.17)	41% (91)		43% (84)	3.01 (77)	148	39% (96)	210	3.96 (63)	#126 (.31)	48% (124)		51% (131)	44% (110)	4.62 (127)	47.8	1.3	1.4
USA	#5 (.34)	50% (9)		53% (4)	3.57 (6)	199	47% (18)	243	4.66 (13)	#58 (.15)	41% (58)		39% (28)	43% (96)	3.66 (56)	70.8	0.9	1.5

Overall Stats 2017

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	12	37.8	37.2	46.2%	3.22	2.1	27	495	153	342	4	42%	56%	42%	48%	16%	.17
USA Defense	12	26.5	26.8	44.5%	3.2	1.7	-	-	-	-	-	45%	52%	44%	43%	14%	.13

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	12	25.8	34.5	37.8%	2.94	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	49%	50%	39%	36%	21%	.08
USA Offense	12	19.8	20.2	39.2%	3.12	1.5	18	334	97	237	3.1	43%	55%	38%	38%	21%	.03

Additional Stats 2017

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	12	28:51	26.7	44%	33%	7.8	69	2.1	2.2	8.2	2.9	2	36.6
South Alabama	12	29:36	17.8	30%	44%	6.1	56.6	1.5	1.7	4	1.8	0	29.4

Run Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	12	42%	42%	38.6	152.6	4	17	.05	2.69	69%	9%	0.93
USA Defense	12	45%	44%	-	-	-	-	.04	3.03	70%	8%	0.87

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	12	49%	39%	-	-	-	-	.02	2.39	71%	14%	0.98
USA Offense	12	43%	38%	31.3	97.3	3.1	10	-.12	2.08	60%	12%	0.75

Pass Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	12	56%	48%	26.4	42.7	342.2	8	13	38	17	.28	1.5	30%	36%	.28	7%	1.8
USA Defense	12	52%	43%	-	-	-	-	-	-	8	.25	1.5	31%	36%	.28	6%	1.7

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	12	50%	36%	-	-	-	-	-	-	14	.17	1.8	35%	29%	.22	7%	2.1
USA Offense	12	55%	38%	18.5	34.3	237.1	6.9	12.8	15	14	.16	1.5	34%	29%	.17	9%	1.8

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2017 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #66
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #56
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #74

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: South Alabama: -3.5

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: 1.5 South Alabama: -12.0

South Alabama's Power Ratings
South Alabama's Power Rating: -3.5 NR
South Alabama's Offense Rating: NR
South Alabama's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #88
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
South Alabama's 2017 Expected Record: -
South Alabama's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: -12.0 #106
South Alabama's Offense SP+ Rating: 18.3 #119
South Alabama's Defense SP+ Rating: 31.4 #89

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 482

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 37.8 PPG
Offense on Road: 37.2
Defense: 25.8 PPG
Defense on Road: 34.5

Arkansas State's 2017 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 5 - 5 - 0
Record as Road Fav vs Spread: 3 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
Arkansas State 31
South Alabama 23

Total Points: 54

Based on Last 4 Games
Arkansas State 31
South Alabama 21

Total Points: 52

Based on Entire Season
Arkansas State 32
South Alabama 25

Total Points: 57

South Alabama Scoring
Offense: 19.8 PPG
Offense at Home: 20.2
Defense: 26.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 26.8

South Alabama's 2017 Record
Record: 4 - 8
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 3 - 9
Record at home: 2 - 3
Record vs Spread at home: 2 - 3 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 4 - 3 - 0
Record as Home Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2025	10/14	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State	15	South Alabama -8.5	Arkansas State	57.5	Under
2024	10/05	Arkansas State	18	South Alabama	16	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	62.5	Under
2023	11/11	South Alabama	21	Arkansas State	14	South Alabama -14.5	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2022	10/29	Arkansas State	3	South Alabama	31	South Alabama -9	South Alabama	52.5	Under
2021	10/30	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	13	South Alabama -9.5	South Alabama	67.0	Under
2020	11/28	Arkansas State	31	South Alabama	38	Arkansas State -7	South Alabama	63.5	Over
2019	11/29	South Alabama	34	Arkansas State	30	Arkansas State -10.5	South Alabama	53.0	Over
2018	11/03	Arkansas State	38	South Alabama	14	Arkansas State -14	Arkansas State	61.5	Under
2017	11/11	South Alabama	24	Arkansas State	19	Arkansas State -12.5	South Alabama	55.5	Under
2016	10/15	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama	7	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	54.5	Under
2015	10/13	South Alabama	31	Arkansas State	49	Arkansas State -6	Arkansas State	58.0	Over
2014	11/08	Arkansas State	45	South Alabama	10	Arkansas State -9.5	Arkansas State	0
2013	11/02	South Alabama	16	Arkansas State	17	South Alabama -2.5	Arkansas State	0
2012	10/13	Arkansas State	36	South Alabama	29

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
South Alabama	6	5	3 Overs
Arkansas State	8	8	8 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	9 - 5	7 - 6	4 - 4	3 - 2
Road Teams	5 - 9	6 - 7	2 - 3	4 - 4

(#) ARST at (#) USA

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	USA
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#66	#106
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#79	#88
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

South Alabama Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#89
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	USA Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

South Alabama on Offense


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#119	#74
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

South Alabama Run Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

South Alabama Pass Game


CategoryCat	USA Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
USA 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Below Avg G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Ladd Peebles Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 72°

Rematch from Week 11
Arkansas State 12.5 (55.5)
South Alabama won vs Arkansas State this year (24-19)

Previous Matchups
Arkansas State beat South Alabama last year (18-16)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2023 (21-14)
South Alabama beat Arkansas State in 2022 (31-3)

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

USA's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View South Alabama's Full Roster

USA's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD