Arkansas State at SMU - 2017 Matchup Preview

Arkansas State Red Wolves at SMU Mustangs

Saturday, September 23rd 2017 (7:00 PM EDT)
SMU -3 (72.0) (0) Open: 0.0
SMU 44 - Arkansas State: 21

Red Wolves (7 - 5) (6 - 6 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 25 - 27 (21 - 22 on Road)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

SMU is playing their 4th straight game
Our Line: -0.5 (SP+ ARST -4.5)
Projected Score: ARST: 22 - SMU: 29 (51)
SMU Win prob: 56% | Cover: 47%
ARST Travel: 406 miles

Mustangs (7 - 6) (6 - 7 - 0)
Coach ( - )
Avg Score : 32 - 21 (36 - 19 @ Home)
'17 Opponents: (Elite: ) (Good: ) (Avg: ) (Bad: 0)

Matchup
Schedules
ARST Players
SMU Players
Stats
Run/Pass
Ratings
Scoring
History

Arkansas State's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	Arkansas State at Nebraska	+14.5	50.5	L 36 - 43	O	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 9/16	Arkansas State vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff	-55.0
Sat 9/23	Arkansas State at SMU	+3.0	72.0	L 21 - 44	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Wed 10/4	Arkansas State at Georgia Southern	-9.0	54.5	W 43 - 25	O	Y
Sat 10/14	Arkansas State vs Coastal Carolina	-16.5	63.0	W 51 - 17	O	Y
Thu 10/19	Arkansas State vs Louisiana	-12.0	66.5	W 47 - 3	U	Y
Sat 10/28	Arkansas State at New Mexico State	-3.5	71.0	W 37 - 21	U	Y
	BYE WEEK
Sat 11/11	Arkansas State at South Alabama	-12.5	55.5	L 19 - 24	U	N
Sat 11/18	Arkansas State vs Texas State	-26.5	58.5	W 30 - 12	U	N
Sat 11/25	Arkansas State at UL Monroe	-8.5	69.0	W 67 - 50	O	Y
Sat 12/2	Arkansas State vs Troy	-1.0	60.0	L 25 - 32	U	N
Sat 12/16	Arkansas State vs Middle Tennessee	-3.5	61.0	L 30 - 35	O	N

Total: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Played: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Future: Elite: , Good: , Avg , Bad , Poor
Wins: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:
Losses: Elite: , Good: , Avg: , Bad: , Poor:

Predictions for Arkansas State's Schedule

SMU's 2017 Schedule
Date	Matchup	Spread	Total	Result	O/U	Cover
Sat 9/2	SMU vs Stephen F. Austin	-30.0
Sat 9/9	SMU vs North Texas	-13.0	64.5	W 54 - 32	O	Y
Sat 9/16	SMU at TCU	+22.0	64.5	L 36 - 56	O	Y
Sat 9/23	SMU vs Arkansas State	-3.0	72.0	W 44 - 21	U	Y
Sat 9/30	SMU vs UConn	-16.5	75.0	W 49 - 28	O	Y
Sat 10/7	SMU at Houston	+10.0	60.5	L 22 - 35	U	N
	BYE WEEK
Sat 10/21	SMU at Cincinnati	-6.0	66.0	W 31 - 28	U	N
Fri 10/27	SMU vs Tulsa	-11.5	76.5	W 38 - 34	U	N
Sat 11/4	SMU vs UCF	+14.0	75.0	L 24 - 31	U	Y
Sat 11/11	SMU at Navy	+1.5	66.0	L 40 - 43	O	N
Sat 11/18	SMU at Memphis	+10.5	71.5	L 45 - 66	O	N
Sat 11/25	SMU vs Tulane	-7.5	65.0	W 41 - 38	O	N
Wed 12/20	SMU vs Louisiana Tech	-4.0	70.5	L 10 - 51	U	N

Important Stats (2016)

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST	.09	39%	25.2	39%	2.31	137	38%	242	3.04	.02	36%	27.4	36%	33%	2.99	64.2	1.3	1.6
SMU	.13	40%	32.2	39%	2.93	163	39%	264	3.04	.15	44%	20.5	45%	41%	3.54	52	2	2.2

Teams	Off Explosive.	Off Success	PPG	Rush Success	OL Yds Per Att	Rush YPG	Pass Success	Pass YPG	Off ScoreZone	Def Explosive.	Def Success	Def PPG	RunD Success	Pass D Success	Def ScoreZone	Penalty YPG	TO PG	Def TO PG
ARST		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0
SMU		0%		0%	0	0	0%	0	0		0%		0%	0%	0	0	0	0

Overall Stats 2016

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Offense	13	25.2	21	39.2%	3.04	1.3	19	379	137	242	3.5	52%	46%	39%	38%	19%	.09
SMU Defense	12	20.5	19.2	44%	3.54	2.2	-	-	-	-	-	51%	48%	45%	41%	15%	.15

Teams	Games	PPG	PPG H/R	Success Rate	Pts PerOpp	TO	1stD PG	TotalYds PG	RushYds PG	PassYdsPG	RYPA	Run Rate	Pass Rate	Run Success	Pass Success	Havoc Rate	Total PPA
ARST Defense	13	27.4	21.8	36.1%	2.99	1.6	-	-	-	-	-	49%	49%	36%	33%	22%	.02
SMU Offense	12	32.2	36	40.1%	3.04	2	22	427	163	264	4.1	48%	50%	39%	39%	16%	.13

Additional Stats 2016

Teams	Games	Possession Time	1st Downs PG	3rd Down %	4th Down %	Penalties PG	Penalty Yds PG	Off TO PG	Def TO PG	TFL PG	Sacks PG	D/ST TDs	Avg Field Pos
Arkansas State	13	29:01	18.6	29%	58%	8.2	64.2	1.3	1.6	10.2	3.3	3	29.3
SMU	12	30:37	21.8	43%	38%	5.8	52	2	2.2	5.7	2.4	4	30.4

Run Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Offense	13	52%	39%	39.8	137.2	3.5	19	-.04	2.31	67%	13%	0.88
SMU Defense	12	51%	45%	-	-	-	-	.19	3.2	75%	9%	1.02

Teams	Games	Run Play Rate	Run Play Success	Rush Att PG	Rush Yds PG	Rush Yds Per Att	Rushing TDs	Run Pred Pts Added	OL Yds Per Att	3rd/4th & Short	Front 7 Havoc	Run Play Explosivness
ARST Defense	13	49%	36%	-	-	-	-	-.05	2.5	63%	16%	0.78
SMU Offense	12	48%	39%	39.8	163.3	4.1	14	.06	2.93	73%	9%	0.86

Pass Game Stats (2017)

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Offense	13	46%	38%	17.8	30.9	242.2	7.8	13.6	21	9	.28	1.8	36%	30%	.25	6%	2
SMU Defense	12	48%	41%	-	-	-	-	-	-	18	.12	1.6	32%	33%	.17	6%	1.6

Teams	Games	PassPlay Rate	PassPlay Success	Comp PG	Att PG	Yds PG	Yds PA	Yds PC	TDs	Ints	PassPlays PPA	PassPlays Expl	PassDowns Rate	PassDowns Succ Rate	PassDowns PPA	DB Havoc	PassDowns Expl
ARST Defense	13	49%	33%	-	-	-	-	-	-	11	.11	1.7	38%	30%	.26	6%	1.8
SMU Offense	12	50%	39%	20.7	38	264	7	12.8	22	17	.24	1.7	35%	32%	.25	7%	1.8

Arkansas State's Power Ratings
Arkansas State's Power Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Offense Rating: NR
Arkansas State's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #79
Blue Chip Ratio: 0% NR
Arkansas State's 2017 Expected Record: -
Arkansas State's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: 1.5 #66
Arkansas State's Offense SP+ Rating: 29.3 #56
Arkansas State's Defense SP+ Rating: 28.6 #74

Average Talent
Average Sun Belt Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Power Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: SMU: 1.05

SP+ Ratings Matchup
Arkansas State: 1.5 SMU: -2.9

SMU's Power Ratings
SMU's Power Rating: 1.05 NR
SMU's Offense Rating: NR
SMU's Defense Rating: NR
2017 Talent Rating: #73
Blue Chip Ratio: 0 NR
SMU's 2017 Expected Record: -
SMU's 2017 Overall SP+ Rating: -2.9 #82
SMU's Offense SP+ Rating: 35.4 #25
SMU's Defense SP+ Rating: 37.4 #110

Average Talent
Average ACC Talent Rating is 0
Average Power Five Talent: 0
Average FBS Talent: 715.76

Arkansas State Scoring
Offense: 25.2 PPG
Offense on Road: 21
Defense: 27.4 PPG
Defense on Road: 21.8

Arkansas State's 2017 Record
Record: 7 - 5
Record vs Spread: 6 - 6 - 0
Over/Under Record: 5 - 7
Record on Road: 3 - 3
Record vs Spread on Road: 4 - 2 - 0
Record as Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0
Record as Road Dog vs Spread: 1 - 1 - 0

Projected Score
SMU 29
Arkansas State 22

Projected Total Points: 51

SMU Scoring
Offense: 32.2 PPG
Offense at Home: 36
Defense: 20.5 PPG
Defense at Home: 19.2

SMU's 2017 Record
Record: 7 - 6
Record vs Spread: 6 - 7 - 0
Over/Under Record: 6 - 7
Record at home: 6 - 1
Record vs Spread at home: 5 - 2 - 0
Record as Fav vs Spread: 4 - 4 - 0
Record as Home Fav vs Spread: 4 - 2 - 0

Year	Date	Home	Score	Away	Score	Spread	Cover	Total	O/U
2019	08/31	Arkansas State	30	SMU	37	Arkansas State -1.5	SMU	58.5	Over
2017	09/23	SMU	44	Arkansas State	21	SMU -3	SMU	72.0	Under
2007	09/15	Arkansas State	45	SMU	28
2006	09/23	SMU	55	Arkansas State	9

Team	Wins	Covers	O/U
SMU	3	2	1 Overs
Arkansas State	1	0	1 Unders

	Wins	Covers	Favs	Dogs
Home Teams	3 - 1	1 - 1	1 - 1	0 - 0
Road Teams	1 - 3	1 - 1	0 - 0	1 - 1

(#) ARST at (#) SMU

Overall StatsOvr
CategoryCat	ARST	SMU
Net PPPPPP	NR	NR
Power RatePwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#66	#82
Perf GradeGrade	NR	NR
OffenseOff	NR	NR
DefenseDef	NR	NR
Spec TeamsST	NR	NR
TalentTal	#79	#73
Blue ChipsBC%	NR	NR

Arkansas State Injury Report

SMU Injury Report

Arkansas State on Offense


CategoryCat	ARST Off	SMU Def
PPPOffPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#56	#110
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

Arkansas State Run Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	SMU Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

Arkansas State Pass Game


CategoryCat	ARST Off	SMU Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Rush/BlockP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

SMU on Offense


CategoryCat	SMU Off	ARST Def
PPPDefPPP	NR	NR
Perf GradePerf	NR	NR
SuccessSuc	NR	NR
ExplosiveExp	NR	NR
PPAPPA	NR	NR
PowerPwr	NR	NR
SP+SP+	#25	#74
Pts POPPO	NR	NR
HavocHav	NR	NR

SMU Run Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	ARST Def
Run GameRun	NR	NR
Run SuccessRSuc	NR	NR
Run ExplRExp	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Run BlockR Blk	NR	-
OL YdsOLY	NR	NR
Stuff RateStuff	NR	NR
TackleTak	-	NR

SMU Pass Game


CategoryCat	SMU Off	ARST Def
Pass GamePass	NR	NR
Pass SuccessPSuc	NR	NR
Pass ExplPExl	NR	NR
PPAExp	NR	NR
Pass Block/RushP Blk	NR	NR
F7 HavocF7	NR	NR
DB HavocDB	NR	NR

Program Comparison
SMU 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Average G5

ARST 5 Year Profile: Improving Poor G5
'17 Profile: Down to Top G5

Weather Forecast
Playing in Gerald J. Ford Stadium
Conditions:
Temp: 0°

Rematch from Week 4
SMU -3.0 (72.0)
SMU won vs Arkansas State this year (44-21)

No Matchups Past 4 Years

ARST's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View Arkansas State's Full Roster

ARST's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

SMU's OC ()

Player Name	COMP	ATT	PCT	YDS	TD	INT	YPA

Player Name	CAR	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

Player Name	REC	YDS	TD	YPC	LONG

View SMU's Full Roster

SMU's DC ()

Top Def	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Sacks	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD

Pass D	Tack	TFL	SACKS	PRESS	PD