Sat, Oct 17 2026
·
Week 7
·
🏟 Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
Honolulu, HI
·
Turf
·
9,000 cap
New Mexico✈ 3,222 mi-4 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Hawai'i,
while Game Control favors New Mexico.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Hawai'i wins
Lean
Game Control
58.3%
New Mexico wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → New Mexico
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico 2026 Schedule
New Mexico's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | New Mexico vs Central Michigan | -10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | New Mexico vs Mercyhurst | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | New Mexico at Oklahoma | +20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | New Mexico at New Mexico State | -13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | New Mexico vs UTEP | -20.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | New Mexico at Hawai'i | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | New Mexico vs North Dakota State | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | New Mexico at San José State | -15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | New Mexico at Nevada | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | New Mexico vs UNLV | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | New Mexico at Wyoming | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | New Mexico vs Air Force | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
Hawai'i 2026 Schedule
Hawai'i's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Hawai'i at Stanford | -5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/5 | Hawai'i vs UNLV | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico State | -17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/26 | Hawai'i at Wyoming | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Hawai'i vs San José State | -19 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Hawai'i at Arizona State | +8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Hawai'i vs New Mexico | -1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Hawai'i at Northern Illinois | -14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/7 | Hawai'i at UTEP | -14 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Hawai'i vs North Dakota State | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Hawai'i at Nevada | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Hawai'i vs Sacramento State | -7 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ New Mexico
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ New Mexico
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Hawai'i Edge
Hawai'i +0.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
New Mexico Edge
New Mexico +4.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico
Jason Eck #66
9–4 (69%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Luke Schleusner
Yr 2
#59
DC
Spence Nowinsky
Yr 2
#20
Hawai'i
Timmy Chang #131
22–29 (43%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Anthony Arceneaux
Yr 1
#67
DC
Dennis Thurman
Yr 3
#102
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓