Sat, Oct 3 2026
·
Week 5
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
Virginia✈ 619 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida State,
while Game Control favors Virginia.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
64.9%
Virginia wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Virginia 2026 Schedule
Virginia's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Virginia vs NC State | -3.5 | 54.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Virginia vs Norfolk State | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Virginia at West Virginia | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Virginia vs Delaware | -18 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Virginia at Florida State | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Virginia vs Syracuse | -11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Virginia at SMU | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/23 | Virginia vs Duke | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Virginia at Wake Forest | -0 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/14 | Virginia vs California | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Virginia vs North Carolina | -7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
Florida State 2026 Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Florida State vs New Mexico State | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 8/29 | Florida State vs New Mexico State | -26 | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 9/7 | Florida State vs SMU | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/19 | Florida State at Alabama | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Florida State vs Central Arkansas | -29.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Florida State vs Virginia | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/9 | Florida State at Louisville | +5.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Florida State at Miami | +17 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Florida State vs Clemson | +0 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Florida State at Boston College | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/13 | Florida State at Pittsburgh | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Florida State vs NC State | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Florida State vs Florida | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.33
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +13.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Virginia
Tony Elliott #120
22–26 (46%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 3
#61
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 3
#63
Florida State
Mike Norvell #42
38–34 (53%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Tim Harris
Yr 1
#67
DC
Tony White
Yr 2
#19
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓