Sat, Nov 21 2026
·
Week 12
·
🏟 Scott Stadium
Charlottesville, VA
·
Turf
·
61,500 cap
North Carolina✈ 149 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Virginia
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Virginia entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Virginia wins
Lean
Game Control
76%
Virginia wins
Strong
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Virginia
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
North Carolina 2026 Schedule
North Carolina's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | North Carolina vs TCU | +7.5 | 50.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | North Carolina vs East Tennessee State | -20 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | North Carolina at Clemson | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/3 | North Carolina vs Notre Dame | +27 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | North Carolina at Pittsburgh | +14.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | North Carolina at Duke | +11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | North Carolina vs Syracuse | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | North Carolina vs Miami | +23.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | North Carolina at UConn | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | North Carolina vs Louisville | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | North Carolina at Virginia | +12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | North Carolina vs NC State | +6.5 | — | — | — | — |
Virginia 2026 Schedule
Virginia's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Virginia vs NC State | -3.5 | 54.5 | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Virginia vs Norfolk State | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Virginia at West Virginia | -7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Virginia vs Delaware | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Virginia at Florida State | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Virginia vs Syracuse | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Virginia at SMU | +10.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/23 | Virginia vs Duke | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Virginia at Wake Forest | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/14 | Virginia vs California | -5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Virginia vs North Carolina | -12.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Virginia at Virginia Tech | -6 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Virginia
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Virginia
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +0.76
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Virginia Edge
Virginia +23.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
North Carolina
Bill Belichick #103
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Bobby Petrino
Yr 1
#18
DC
Stephen Belichick
Yr 2
#61
Virginia
Tony Elliott #120
22–26 (46%)
· Yr 5 at school
OC
Des Kitchings
Yr 3
#61
DC
John Rudzinski
Yr 3
#63
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓