Sat, Nov 7 2026
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, MA
·
Turf
·
44,500 cap
Florida State✈ 1,097 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Florida State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida State entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Florida State wins
Solid
Game Control
64.9%
Florida State wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida State
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida State 2026 Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Florida State vs New Mexico State | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 8/29 | Florida State vs New Mexico State | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 9/7 | Florida State vs SMU | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/19 | Florida State at Alabama | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Florida State vs Central Arkansas | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Florida State vs Virginia | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/9 | Florida State at Louisville | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Florida State at Miami | +18 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Florida State vs Clemson | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Florida State at Boston College | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/13 | Florida State at Pittsburgh | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Florida State vs NC State | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Florida State vs Florida | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
Boston College 2026 Schedule
Boston College's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Boston College at Cincinnati | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 9/11 | Boston College vs Rutgers | +4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Boston College vs Maine | -16 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Boston College vs Virginia Tech | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Boston College at SMU | +24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Boston College vs Pittsburgh | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Boston College at Georgia Tech | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/31 | Boston College at Duke | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Boston College vs Florida State | +12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Boston College at Notre Dame | +31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Boston College vs Syracuse | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Boston College at Miami | +29.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida State
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +12.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 64.9% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Florida State
Mike Norvell #42
38–34 (53%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Tim Harris
Yr 1
#67
DC
Tony White
Yr 2
#19
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #117
9–16 (36%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
Vacant
Yr 1
#122
DC
Ted Roof
Yr 1
#106
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓