Sat, Aug 29 2026
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Bobby Bowden Field at Doak Campbell Stadium
Tallahassee, FL
·
Turf
·
79,560 cap
New Mexico State✈ 1,327 mi+2 hr TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Florida State
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida State entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
67.1%
Florida State wins
Solid
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Florida State
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
New Mexico State 2026 Schedule
New Mexico State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | New Mexico State at Florida State | +24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 8/29 | New Mexico State at Florida State | +24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | New Mexico State at Hawai'i | +17.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/26 | New Mexico State vs New Mexico | +13.5 | — | — | — | — |
Florida State 2026 Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/29 | Florida State vs New Mexico State | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 8/29 | Florida State vs New Mexico State | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Mon 9/7 | Florida State vs SMU | +5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/19 | Florida State at Alabama | +11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Florida State vs Central Arkansas | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Florida State vs Virginia | -3 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 10/9 | Florida State at Louisville | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Florida State at Miami | +18 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Florida State vs Clemson | -0.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Florida State at Boston College | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/13 | Florida State at Pittsburgh | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Florida State vs NC State | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Florida State vs Florida | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida State
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +0.64
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida State Edge
Florida State +13.0
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 67.1% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
New Mexico State
Tony Sanchez #132
7–17 (29%)
· Yr 3 at school
OC
David Yost
Yr 1
#137
DC
Joe Morris
Yr 3
#116
Florida State
Mike Norvell #42
38–34 (53%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Tim Harris
Yr 1
#67
DC
Tony White
Yr 2
#19
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓