Florida State at Louisville Week 6 College Football Matchup Florida State at Louisville Matchup - Week 6
Fri, Oct 9 2026 · Week 6 · 🏟 Papa John's Cardinal Stadium Louisville, KY · Turf · 55,000 cap
Florida State✈ 543 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available. Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance. Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Florida State
23
Louisville
29
P&R Line Louisville -5.5
P&R Total O/U 52
Confidence 55 Early Season
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida State, while Game Control favors Louisville. Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida State wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Louisville wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
Advanced factors are split · No strong agreement signal
↓ See full breakdown
Florida State 2026 Schedule
Florida State's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/29Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Sat 8/29Florida State vs New Mexico State-26
Mon 9/7Florida State vs SMU+2.5
— Bye Week —
Sat 9/19Florida State at Alabama+12.5
Sat 9/26Florida State vs Central Arkansas-29.5
Sat 10/3Florida State vs Virginia-3.5
Fri 10/9Florida State at Louisville+5.5
Sat 10/17Florida State at Miami+17
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Florida State vs Clemson+0
Sat 11/7Florida State at Boston College-9
Fri 11/13Florida State at Pittsburgh+2.5
Sat 11/21Florida State vs NC State-4.5
Fri 11/27Florida State vs Florida+2.5
Louisville 2026 Schedule
Louisville's 2026 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 9/5Louisville vs Ole Miss+8.552.5
Fri 9/11Louisville vs Villanova-30.5
Sat 9/19Louisville vs SMU-0.5
Sat 9/26Louisville vs Wake Forest-9.5
Sat 10/3Louisville at NC State-2.5
Fri 10/9Louisville vs Florida State-5.5
Sat 10/17Louisville at Syracuse-10
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/31Louisville vs Stanford-16.5
Fri 11/6Louisville at Georgia Tech-5
Sat 11/14Louisville at North Carolina-6.5
Sat 11/21Louisville vs Pittsburgh-5.5
Sat 11/28Louisville at Kentucky-6.5
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season (prior year)
Florida State PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Split
Metrics disagree
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Florida State #22
+0.324
Louisville #84
+0.312
Florida State Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Florida State #46
+0.373
Louisville #119
+0.378
Louisville Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Florida State #72
0.155
Louisville #33
0.173
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Louisville Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Florida State #46
+7.326
Louisville #77
+7.741
Louisville Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Florida State #32
+0.826
Louisville #44
+0.868
Louisville Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Florida State #68
71.0
Louisville #11
67.6
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Louisville Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Louisville Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Florida State #33
6.9
Louisville #22
10.8
Offense Rating
Florida State #54
16.8
Louisville #18
22.0
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Florida State #24
9.9
Louisville #31
11.2
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Florida State Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Florida State #13
1.64
Louisville #17
1.50
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida State #61
0.91
Louisville #18
0.50
Florida State +0.14
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Louisville Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Florida State #64
42.5
Louisville #21
52.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Florida State #86
43.6
Louisville #32
29.4
Louisville +9.8
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Florida State
Mike Norvell #42
38–34 (53%) · Yr 7 at school
OC Tim Harris Yr 1 #67
DC Tony White Yr 2 #19
Staff Rating
3.08 #44
Louisville
Jeff Brohm #25
28–12 (70%) · Yr 4 at school
OC Brian Brohm Yr 3 #25
DC Mark Ivey Yr 1 #68
Staff Rating
3.28 #27
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself