Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Metrics disagree on this matchup
Momentum Control favors Florida,
while Game Control favors Missouri.
Split signals historically show weaker predictive confidence — treat as a toss-up.
⚡ Split Signal — Metrics Disagree
Momentum Control
61.3%
Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Missouri wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
PPA + Success Rate agree → Missouri
· 73.9% ATS historically
↓ See full breakdown
Florida 2026 Schedule
Florida's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -17 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Florida vs Campbell | -29 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Florida at Auburn | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Florida vs Ole Miss | +8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Florida at Missouri | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Florida vs South Carolina | -4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Florida at Texas | +22 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Florida at Georgia | +22 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Florida vs Oklahoma | +9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Florida at Kentucky | -3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Florida at Florida State | +2.5 | — | — | — | — |
Missouri 2026 Schedule
Missouri's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Missouri vs Arkansas-Pine Bluff | -31.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Missouri at Kansas | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Missouri vs Troy | -24.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Missouri at Mississippi State | -10 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Missouri vs Florida | -9 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Missouri vs Texas A&M | +1.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Missouri at Ole Miss | +7 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Missouri at Arkansas | -9.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Missouri vs Texas | +11 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Missouri at Georgia | +15.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Missouri vs Kentucky | -15 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/28 | Missouri vs Oklahoma | +3 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
Split
Metrics disagree
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Missouri
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida Edge
Florida +0.07
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 61.3% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Missouri Edge
Missouri +6.3
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Florida
Jon Sumrall #17
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 1
#30
DC
Brad White
Yr 1
#65
Missouri
Eliah Drinkwitz #19
46–29 (61%)
· Yr 7 at school
OC
Chip Lindsey
Yr 1
#41
DC
Corey Batoon
Yr 3
#23
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓