Sat, Sep 5 2026
·
Week 1
·
🏟 Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Gainesville, FL
·
Turf
·
88,548 cap
Florida Atlantic✈ 264 miSame TZ
Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2026 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2025 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Florida
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Florida entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Florida wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Florida wins
Lean
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Florida
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Florida Atlantic 2026 Schedule
Florida Atlantic's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Florida Atlantic at Florida | +22 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Florida Atlantic vs Navy | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Florida Atlantic vs Florida International | -4.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Florida Atlantic at UL Monroe | -12 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Florida Atlantic vs Texas Southern | -16.5 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/17 | Florida Atlantic at Army | +7.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/24 | Florida Atlantic vs Rice | -11.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Thu 10/29 | Florida Atlantic at North Texas | +2 | — | — | — | — |
| Thu 11/5 | Florida Atlantic vs UTSA | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Florida Atlantic at Tulsa | +6 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Florida Atlantic vs South Florida | +4 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Florida Atlantic at East Carolina | +9 | — | — | — | — |
Florida 2026 Schedule
Florida's 2026 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 9/5 | Florida vs Florida Atlantic | -22 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/12 | Florida vs Campbell | -31 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/19 | Florida at Auburn | -2 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 9/26 | Florida vs Ole Miss | +1 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/3 | Florida at Missouri | +3.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/10 | Florida vs South Carolina | -6.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 10/17 | Florida at Texas | +15 | — | — | — | — |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/31 | Florida at Georgia | +17 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/7 | Florida vs Oklahoma | +3 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/14 | Florida at Kentucky | -8 | — | — | — | — |
| Sat 11/21 | Florida vs Vanderbilt | -8.5 | — | — | — | — |
| Fri 11/27 | Florida at Florida State | -2.5 | — | — | — | — |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season (prior year)
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Florida
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Florida
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season (prior year — 2026 data not yet available) ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Florida Edge
Florida +0.09
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Florida Edge
Florida +7.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 2025 full season · preseason estimate
Coaching Matchup
Florida Atlantic
Zach Kittley #115
4–8 (33%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Zach Kittley
Yr 1
#49
DC
Brett Dewhurst
Yr 2
#125
Florida
Jon Sumrall #17
0–0 (0%)
· Yr 1 at school
OC
Buster Faulkner
Yr 1
#30
DC
Brad White
Yr 1
#65
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓