Preseason projection — This game has not yet been played and 2025 in-season data is not yet available.
Edges are based on 2024 full-season performance.
Confidence will increase once in-season games are logged.
Matchup Prediction
Toss-up — no clear edge
Neither metric shows a meaningful pre-game edge in this matchup.
Momentum Control
58.4%
—
Lean
Game Control
76%
Troy wins
Strong
Vegas Spread
Troy -16.5
O/U 46.5
ESPN Bet
Nicholls 2025 Schedule
Nicholls's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Nicholls at Troy | +16.5L20–38 | 46.5 | L20–38 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/20 | Nicholls at Texas State | +32.5L3–35 | 57.0 | L3–35 | U | Y |
Troy 2025 Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Troy vs Nicholls | -16.5W38–20 | 46.5 | W38–20 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Troy at Clemson | +31.0L16–27 | 51.5 | L16–27 | U | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Troy vs Memphis | +4.5L7–28 | 51.5 | L7–28 | U | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Troy at Buffalo | +5.5W21–17 | 43.5 | W21–17 | U | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 10/4 | Troy vs South Alabama | +2.5W31–24 | 46.5 | W31–24 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/11 | Troy at Texas State | +7.5W48–41 | 53.5 | W48–41 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Troy at UL Monroe | -4.5W37–14 | 45.5 | W37–14 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/25 | Troy vs Louisiana | -7.0W35–23 | 47.5 | W35–23 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Troy vs Arkansas State | -7.5L10–23 | 52.5 | L10–23 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Thu 11/13 | Troy at Old Dominion | +9.5L0–33 | 53.5 | L0–33 | U | N |
| Sat 11/22 | Troy vs Georgia State | -9.5W31–19 | 51.0 | W31–19 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Troy at Southern Miss | +6.5W28–18 | 50.5 | W28–18 | U | Y |
| Fri 12/5 | Troy at James Madison | +24.5L14–31 | 47.5 | L14–31 | U | Y |
| Tue 12/16 | Troy vs Jacksonville State | +3.0L13–17 | 47.5 | L13–17 | U | N |
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Nicholls Edge
Nicholls +0.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Troy Edge
Troy +22.1
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 76% of games historically
Based on 2024 full season · preseason estimate
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓