Georgia State at Troy Week 13 College Football Matchup Georgia State at Troy Matchup - Week 13
Sat, Nov 22 2025 · Week 13 · 🏟 Veterans Memorial Stadium Troy, AL · Turf · 30,000 cap
Georgia State✈ 161 mi-1 hr TZ
19 31
Final
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📊 Punt & Rally Projection
Georgia State
18
TROY -9.5
Troy
35
P&R Line Troy -17
P&R Total O/U 52.5
Confidence 90 High
Vegas Troy -9.5 · O/U 51.0
Matchup Prediction
Troy has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor Troy entering this game.
Momentum Control
58.4%
Troy wins
Lean
Game Control
58.6%
Troy wins
Lean
Vegas Spread
Troy -9.5
O/U 51.0
Bovada
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Troy · 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Georgia State 2025 Schedule
Georgia State's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Georgia State at Ole Miss+38.5L7–6362.5L7–63ON
Sat 9/6Georgia State vs Memphis+14.5L16–3857.5L16–38UN
Sat 9/13Georgia State vs Murray State-31.5W37–2163.5W37–21UN
Sat 9/20Georgia State at Vanderbilt+27.5L21–7053.5L21–70ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Georgia State vs James Madison+19.5L7–1452.5L7–14UY
Sat 10/11Georgia State vs App State+3.0L20–4155.5L20–41ON
Sat 10/18Georgia State at Georgia Southern+6.5L24–4158.5L24–41ON
Thu 10/23Georgia State vs South Alabama+5.5L31–3854.5L31–38ON
— Bye Week —
Sat 11/8Georgia State at Coastal Carolina+7.0L27–4056.5L27–40ON
Sat 11/15Georgia State vs Marshall+9.5L18–3059.5L18–30UN
Sat 11/22Georgia State at Troy+9.5L19–3151.0L19–31UN
Sat 11/29Georgia State at Old Dominion+29.0L10–2758.5L10–27UY
Troy 2025 Schedule
Troy's 2025 Schedule
DateMatchupSpreadTotalResultO/UCover
Sat 8/30Troy vs Nicholls-16.5W38–2046.5W38–20OY
Sat 9/6Troy at Clemson+31.0L16–2751.5L16–27UY
Sat 9/13Troy vs Memphis+4.5L7–2851.5L7–28UN
Sat 9/20Troy at Buffalo+5.5W21–1743.5W21–17UY
— Bye Week —
Sat 10/4Troy vs South Alabama+2.5W31–2446.5W31–24OY
Sat 10/11Troy at Texas State+7.5W48–4153.5W48–41OY
Sat 10/18Troy at UL Monroe-4.5W37–1445.5W37–14OY
Sat 10/25Troy vs Louisiana-7.0W35–2347.5W35–23OY
Sat 11/1Troy vs Arkansas State-7.5L10–2352.5L10–23UN
— Bye Week —
Thu 11/13Troy at Old Dominion+9.5L0–3353.5L0–33UN
Sat 11/22Troy vs Georgia State-9.5W31–1951.0W31–19UY
Sat 11/29Troy at Southern Miss+6.5W28–1850.5W28–18UY
Fri 12/5Troy at James Madison+24.5L14–3147.5L14–31UY
Tue 12/16Troy vs Jacksonville State+3.0L13–1747.5L13–17UN
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) · 2025 season
Troy PPA Edge
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Troy
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Troy
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
Georgia State #86
+0.258
Troy #110
+0.369
Troy Edge
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Georgia State #72
+0.415
Troy #111
+0.606
Troy Edge
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
Georgia State #121
0.127
Troy #54
0.164
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Troy Edge
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Georgia State #101
+6.564
Troy #72
+8.117
Troy Edge
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Georgia State #90
+0.809
Troy #114
+0.838
Troy Edge
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Georgia State #132
74.2
Troy #27
69.0
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Troy Edge
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season · Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Troy Rated Higher
Overall Power Rating
Georgia State
-18.5
Troy
-12.1
Offense Rating
Georgia State
5.8
Troy
9.7
Defense Rating (lower = better defense)
Georgia State
24.2
Troy
21.8
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences Who builds scoring momentum? Troy Edge
Avg sequences created per game
Georgia State #131
0.33
Troy #122
0.56
Avg sequences allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia State #133
2.56
Troy #85
1.56
Troy +0.22
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.4% of games historically
Based on 9 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance Who controls games start to finish? Troy Edge
Avg GC score per game (offense)
Georgia State #1
25.1
Troy #1
31.3
Avg GC score allowed per game (lower is better)
Georgia State #124
59.6
Troy #100
54.6
Troy +6.2
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 58.6% of games historically
Based on 10 games this season
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season

Both metrics agree on Troy. Teams with this edge profile have covered 50.3% historically — essentially a coin flip against the spread.

ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.

Coaching Matchup
Georgia State
Dell McGee #1
3–9 (25%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Jim Chaney Yr 2 #1
DC Travis Pearson Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
Troy
Gerad Parker #1
4–8 (33%) · Yr 2 at school
OC Sean Reagan Yr 2 #1
DC Dontae Wright Yr 1 #1
Staff Rating
0.00 #1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games.

Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: Momentum Control is a great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: Game Control is another great measure for predicting game outcome but NOT an ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set.

Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself