Sat, Nov 1 2025
·
Week 10
·
🏟 Alumni Stadium
Chestnut Hill, MA
·
Turf
·
44,500 cap
Notre Dame✈ 773 miSame TZ
Matchup Prediction
Notre Dame
has the edge in this matchup
Both Momentum Control (CSS) and Game Control metrics favor
Notre Dame entering this game.
Momentum Control
73.7%
Notre Dame wins
Solid
Game Control
75.9%
Notre Dame wins
Solid
Vegas Spread
Notre Dame -31.5
O/U 55.5
DraftKings
Advanced Stats
All 4 factors agree → Notre Dame
· 83.1% ATS historically when all four align
↓ See full breakdown
Notre Dame 2025 Schedule
Notre Dame's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sun 8/31 | Notre Dame at Miami | -2.5L24–27 | 53.5 | L24–27 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/13 | Notre Dame vs Texas A&M | -7.5L40–41 | 48.5 | L40–41 | O | N |
| Sat 9/20 | Notre Dame vs Purdue | -24.5W56–30 | 51.5 | W56–30 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/27 | Notre Dame at Arkansas | -5.5W56–13 | 64.5 | W56–13 | O | Y |
| Sat 10/4 | Notre Dame vs Boise State | -21.5W28–7 | 63.5 | W28–7 | U | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Notre Dame vs NC State | -23.5W36–7 | 59.5 | W36–7 | U | Y |
| Sat 10/18 | Notre Dame vs USC | -10.5W34–24 | 60.5 | W34–24 | U | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/1 | Notre Dame at Boston College | -31.5W25–10 | 55.5 | W25–10 | U | N |
| Sat 11/8 | Notre Dame vs Navy | -30.5W49–10 | 54.5 | W49–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/15 | Notre Dame at Pittsburgh | -12.5W37–15 | 55.5 | W37–15 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/22 | Notre Dame vs Syracuse | -36.5W70–7 | 51.5 | W70–7 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/29 | Notre Dame at Stanford | -32.5W49–20 | 50.5 | W49–20 | O | N |
Boston College 2025 Schedule
Boston College's 2025 Schedule
| Date | Matchup | Spread | Total | Result | O/U | Cover |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sat 8/30 | Boston College vs Fordham | -35.0W66–10 | 53.5 | W66–10 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/6 | Boston College at Michigan State | +3.5L40–42 | 45.5 | L40–42 | O | Y |
| Sat 9/13 | Boston College at Stanford | -14.0L20–30 | 44.5 | L20–30 | O | N |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 9/27 | Boston College vs California | -6.0L24–28 | 54.5 | L24–28 | U | N |
| Sat 10/4 | Boston College at Pittsburgh | +6.5L7–48 | 54.5 | L7–48 | O | N |
| Sat 10/11 | Boston College vs Clemson | +14.0L10–41 | 54.5 | L10–41 | U | N |
| Sat 10/18 | Boston College vs UConn | +2.5L23–38 | 58.5 | L23–38 | O | N |
| Sat 10/25 | Boston College at Louisville | +25.5L24–38 | 54.5 | L24–38 | O | Y |
| Sat 11/1 | Boston College vs Notre Dame | +31.5L10–25 | 55.5 | L10–25 | U | Y |
| Sat 11/8 | Boston College vs SMU | +10.5L13–45 | 54.5 | L13–45 | O | N |
| Sat 11/15 | Boston College vs Georgia Tech | +16.5L34–36 | 61.5 | L34–36 | O | Y |
| — Bye Week — | ||||||
| Sat 11/29 | Boston College at Syracuse | -2.5W34–12 | 54.5 | W34–12 | U | Y |
Advanced Stats
Advanced Analytics Matchup
Matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense) ·
2025 season
Agreement Signals — When All Metrics Agree
Elite · 83.1% ATS
PPA + PPO + SR + Havoc
All 4 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 82.4% ATS
PPA + PPO + Havoc
3 Agree
→ Notre Dame
Elite · 73.9% ATS
PPA + Success Rate
Both Agree
→ Notre Dame
Individual Factors — Ranked by Predictive Strength
PPA Overall
Points added per play · Elite predictor
PPA Passing
Pass efficiency edge · Strong predictor
Havoc Total
Def. disruption rate · Strong predictor
TFLs, sacks, PBUs, forced fumbles — higher is better
Points Per Opp
Drive-finishing edge · Strong predictor
Success Rate
Play consistency edge · Solid predictor
Field Position
Avg start (lower=better) · Solid predictor
Avg yards from own endzone to average start — lower is better · longer bar = better field position
Advanced stats sourced from CFBD · 2025 season ·
Edges are matchup-adjusted (offense vs opponent defense)
Power Ratings
Team Power Ratings
Overall · Offense · Defense ratings · Updated as season progresses
Power ratings updated throughout the season as results accumulate
Momentum Control (CSS)
Consecutive Scoring Sequences
Who builds scoring momentum?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +1.00
CSS Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 73.7% of games historically
Based on 7 games this season
Game Control (GC)
Win Probability Dominance
Who controls games start to finish?
Notre Dame Edge
Notre Dame +33.4
GC Edge (season-to-date)
Teams with this edge win 75.9% of games historically
Based on 8 games this season
Actual Result
CSS Battle
Tie
1 — 1 sequences
✗ Predicted incorrectly
GC Battle
Notre Dame
13.5 — 62.5 GC score
✓ Predicted correctly
Game Result
Notre Dame won by 15
✓ Model called it
Spread Context
ATS Historical Context
Based on 2021–2025 backtest · FBS vs FBS · Regular season
Both metrics agree on Notre Dame with a large edge. Historically, dominant teams like this are fully priced into the spread — the agreed-upon team covers just 50.2% of the time. The metrics predict game control better than they beat the number.
ATS data is informational only. Past cover rates do not guarantee future results.
Coaching Matchup
Notre Dame
Marcus Freeman #1
33–10 (77%)
· Yr 4 at school
OC
Mike Denbrock
Yr 2
#1
DC
Chris Ash
Yr 1
#1
Boston College
Bill O'Brien #1
7–5 (58%)
· Yr 2 at school
OC
Will Lawing
Yr 2
#1
DC
Tim Lewis
Yr 2
#1
About these metrics
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓
Advanced Stats shows matchup-adjusted factor edges (offense vs opponent defense). Combination signals — when PPA, PPO, Success Rate, and Havoc all point the same direction — have historically predicted the SU winner in 95–97% of games and the ATS winner in 82–83% of games (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS, regular season).
Impact: Advanced Stats are the best performance based metric used to predict the outcome of games. ✓
Momentum Control (CSS) measures consecutive scoring sequences — when a team scores, holds the opponent scoreless, then scores again. Teams entering a game with a CSS edge of +1.0 or more have won 71–78% of games historically (2021–2025, FBS vs FBS).
Impact: CSS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Game Control (GC) measures win probability dominance — how thoroughly a team controlled the game from start to finish. Teams with a GC edge of +12 or more have won 67–76% of games historically. When both metrics agree, combined confidence is higher. When they split, treat as a lean at best.
Impact: GS is not a predictive ATS advantage, data shows this is already considered when lines are set. ✗
Power Ratings are a custom-built composite of a Teams Talent, Experience & Production, Coaching & Performance Metrics. These are updated constantly with roster changes, performance once the games start for the 2026 season, injuries the team is dealing with and scheduling situations.
Impact: There are a wide range of power ratings available, we think ours is the best, you can decide for yourself ✓